Table of contents for Pathways to a hydrogen future / Thomas E. Drennen, Jennifer E. Rosthal.


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Part I Overview                                           1
1 The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim):
Pathways to a Hydrogen Future                           3
Interest in the Hydrogen Economy                        4
Global Energy Demand and Resource Availability          6
Energy Security                                         8
Environmental Considerations                            9
Pathways to a Hydrogen Future                          10
Centralized versus Decentralized Hydrogen Production
Options                                              11
Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model                      13
Production                                             14
Production Options                                     15
Hydrogen Production Costs                              16
Carbon Capture and Sequestration                       17
Distribution and Storage                               18
Delivered Hydrogen Costs                               19
End Use                                                21
Carbon Emissions                                       22
Sensitivity of the Results                             23
Conclusion                                             25
References                                             26
Part II Why Hydrogen?                                      29
2 Justifications for Hydrogen                               31
Growing Energy Consumption                               31
Fueling the World                                        33
The United States                                        43
Adequacy of Reserves                                     47
Reserve Estimates                                        50
Oil Sands                                                59
Coal to Liquid                                           60
Gas to Liquid                                            61
Biomass to Liquid                                        61
Undiscovered Reserves                                    63
Reserve Distribution                                     67
References                                               71
3 Energy Security                                           75
Strategic Value of Oil                                   77
Economic Oil Security                                    78
Modeling and Forecasts of Future Oil Price Shocks        80
Historic Price Instability                               81
Current Areas of Instability                             83
Infrastructure Vulnerability                             87
References                                               91
4  Environmental Concerns                                   95
Climate Change                                           95
Other Environmental Concerns                            107
References                                              117
Part III On the Road to Hydrogen                          121
5 Progress Towards a Hydrogen Future                       123
Fuel Cell Cars                                          123
Other Hydrogen Vehicles                                 131
Portable Applications                                   132
Stationary Applications                                 137
Conclusion                                              148
References                                              149
Part IV The Hydrogen Futures Simulation
Model (H2Sim)                                     153
6 Hydrogen Production                                      157
Steam Methane Reformation                               160
Coal Gasification                                       162
Electrolysis                                            163
Thermochemical Processes                                165
Non-catalytic Partial Oxidation                         168
Sensitivity Analysis                                    171
Carbon Emissions                                        178
References                                              179
7 Hydrogen Distribution                                    183
Storage                                                 185
Transportation                                          191
Hydrogen distribution                                   201
Sensitivity Analysis                                    204
References                                              208
8 End Use                                                  211
Vehicles                                                211
Carbon Emissions                                        213
End Use Costs                                           213
Sensitivity Analysis                                    216
References                                              220
9 User's Guide                                             221
System Requirements                                     221
Starting the Model and Running a Base Case              221
Model Operation                                         223
Model Navigation                                        223
Production                                              224
Capital Cost Sensitivity                                225
Carbon Pathway                                          228
Storage and Delivery                                    229
End Use                                                 231
Conclusion                                              234
Part V  Conclusion and Discussion                        235
10 From Here to There: the Transition to a Hydrogen Future  237
A Decentralized Approach to Hydrogen Production
for the United States                               240
A Push from Carbon Markets in the European Union      246
The Push from Rapidly Developing Countries            249
Conclusion                                            251
References                                            252
Appendix                                                 253
Executive Summary                                     253
Introduction                                          254
Model Structure and Assumptions                       255
Sensitivity Analysis                                  259
Fuel Price Sensitivity Results                        261
Capital Cost Sensitivity Analysis                     263
Construction Time Sensitivity                         265
Externality Analysis                                  267
Conclusions                                           269
A.1 Sensitivity Analysis using Platt's Data           270
A.2 Detailed Externality Assumptions Available in GenSim  272
References                                            274



Library of Congress subject headings for this publication: Hydrogen as fuel, Economic forecasting, Power resources Technological innovations