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Preface xi Introduction Senator Timothy E. Wirth xiii PART I THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL WARMING CHAPTER 1 Global Warming: The Issue, Impacts, Responses 3 Dean Edwin Abrahamson CHAPTER 2 The Greenhouse Effect: Impacts on Current Global Temperature and Regional Heat Waves 35 James E. Hansen CHAPTER 3 The Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security 44 Toronto Conference CHAPTER 4 The Scientific Consensus Villach (Austria) Conference 63 PART II GLOBAL WARMING: BIOTIC SYSTEMS CHAPTER 5 Biotic Causes and Effects of the Disruption of the Global Carbon Cycle 71 George M. Woodwell CHAPTER 6 Effects of Global WVarming on Biological Diversity 82 Robert L. Peters "CHAPTER 7 Developing Policies for Responding to Climate Change 96 Jill Jaeger PART I1 GLOBAL WARMING: PHI SICAL IMPACTS CHAPTER 8 Greenhouse Effects and Impacts on Physical Systems 113 John Firor CHAPTER 9 Scientific Basis for the Greenhouse Effect 123 Gordon MacDonald CHAPTEIR 10 Changes in Soil Moisture 146 Syukuro Manabe CHAPTER 11 Effects of Climatic Change on Water Supplies in the Western United States 151 Roger R. Revelle and Paul E. Waggoner CHAPTER 12 The Causes and Effects of Sea Level Rise 161 James G. Titus CHAPTER 13 Greenhouse Surprises 196 Wallace S Broecker PART IV THE GREENHOUSE GASES CHAPTER 14 Sources, Sinks, Trends, and Opportunities 213 Peter Ciborowski CHAPTER 15 Global Warming, Acid Rain, and Ozone Depletion 231 Ralph Cicerone CHAPTER 16 Observed Increases in Greenhouse Gases and Predicted Climatic Changes 239 V Ramanathan CHAPTER 17 Methae, CFCs, and Other Greenhouse Gases 248 Donald R Blake PART V POLICY RESPONSES CHAPTER 18 The Dangers from Climate Warming: A Public Awakening 259 Rfe Pomerance CHAPTER 19 One Last Chance for a National Energy Policy 270 Ralph Cavanagh, David Goldstein, and Robert Watson CHAPTER 20 An Analysis of the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer Office of Technology Assessment 291 CHAPTER 21 Near-Term Congressional Options for Responding to Global Climate Change 305 William R Moomaw For Further Reading 327 For Further Information 337 About the Authors 353