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A cknow ledgem ents........................... .............. .. ....... ........... 5 Executive Sum m ary ..................................................... .................. 11 The various aspects of energy security policy........................................ 12 Measuring resource concentration as a driver of energy security .................. 13 Case studies............ ... ............................... .. .... ...... ...... ......... 15 Results from the reference scenario ........................................ ............... 15 Results from the policy cases .............. ......... .... ............. .... 17 Conclusion ..... ....... ..... ..... ... .... ......... ... ......... ......... 19 * Premise for an integrated energy policy .................................... 21 The role of government in liberalised energy markets ................... . 21 Historic energy policy drivers.............. ...................... ...... 23 Climate change and energy security interactions.............................. 24 Scope and outline.. .................... .. ....... ......... .. ..... ...... 25 * The nature of climate change and energy security policy interactions ........................... . ............ ...... ........ 27 Climate change and its mitigation .............................................. . 27 Untangling energy security........................... ............ ..... ...... 32 Assessing climate change and energy security policy interactions........ 38 Sum m ary ................. . ................................. ................ ........ 43 0 New tools to measure the energy security implications of resource concentration............................. ................. 45 Measuring the price component of energy security............................ 45 Measuring the physical availability component of energy security........ 59 Su m m a ry ......................................................................... ....... 6 2 * Energy security and climate change policy drivers: a reference scenario ...................... ................................... 65 Fuel m ix ............. . . .... .......... ......................... ..................... 66 Carbon dioxide emissions.................. .. ..................... 70 Price component of energy security................... .... ............ 72 Physical availability component of energy security....................... 84 Sum mary ................. ............ ............ ........ .................... 88 0 Energy security and climate change policy interactions: exploratory policy cases ......... ....................... ...... ............... 91 Policy-induced changes in the electricity sector................................. 92 Policy-induced changes in road transport........................................ 104 Summary ............... . ................. . .......... ............... . 112 * Discussion ..................... ... ....... ................. 115 M ethodology ................................................ ... ............... .. 115 Case study results.................. ........................ 116 M issing pieces .................................................................. . . . 116 0 Annex I: A review of existing quantitative approaches........... 119 Measuring diversity................................ ................ 119 Im port dependence......... ... ................................. ....... . 123 Hybrid approaches.................... . ........ ...... ..... .... 125 Summary ................... ..... ........................................... 127 O Annex II: ESIrice calculation input data - Reference scenario analysis, 2004, 2030 .................................... ........................ 129 * References........ ......................... 141