Table of contents for The war after the war : strategic lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan / Anthony H. Cordesman.


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1 REAITIES OF HISRY                                 3
2 REALITIES OF RAQ                                  5
Demographics and  Jobs  ................................... . 6
Leadership  ......... . .. ......                 6
Economy  .................................. 8
Oil  ... .. ... ..... .             .  ... .............  8
Agriculture  .............. ..................  9
Infrastructure  ....... .... ..     . ................ 9
Investment  . ...................      ...............   9
U.S. Nation  Building     . ............... ........ . ...........  9
3 THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT OF THE WAR N IRAQ          11
Population  Growth  ......... .........................  11
Water .................   ..................... ..  13
Lagging  Economies ................. ...................... ..... 13
Culture  ...... ...... .. .. .. ................  16
4 US. DRIVE FOR SECURITY                           19
Social  and Economic Problems.... .... ........ ................  19
Weapons Proliferation  .................................. 21
Dependence on Middle East Energy ................................ ..... 24
5 SCENARIOS FOR FUTURE U.S. ENGAGEMENT              27
Departure through Disaster or "Defeat" ...............  27
Departure through Rejection or Civil Conflict ..... .....  28
Departure in 2005-2006 amid Signs of Hope............  28
Continuing Presence despite Transfer of Sovereignty
in  2005-2006  .  -... ...-..... ... ......... . ......... ........ .... .......-- -...  29
Transformation of Iraq into an Ideal for the Region ......  30
6 SHAPING THE STRATEGIC OUTCOME IN IRAQ         31
Iraq-Based Solutions .............................  31
U.S. Realism  .                    .......   ...  32
Economic Assistance and Development .................   33
Continuing Engagement ..........       .......    34
7 STRATEGY AND RISK OF STRATEGI OVERREACH           37
Strategic Engagement and Objectives ..... ... . ...... 38
Internationalism  .....................           39
Coalitions  .-..  ......   . . . ... .... .. . ... .. ..  39
Nation Building  ... -... ..... ....... . .. ... ...... ...  40
Deterrence and Containment .....  ............. 40
War and Diplomacy                  ....     ...    41
Stabilization  . ..- .. ... .....- .. .... ......  . ... . .............. -. .-.... ... ..  41
Manpower Skills .......     ............... .............  42
Limits of Technology .. ......      .......      .. 43
Complexity        .. ....       ........          45
Organizational Reform  ....................       47
Miitary Cooperation  ......... . .... .... ... ....... .... 48
Public  Relations  ............ ................ ..................................... 49
Investment and Funding ....................    .. 50
Intelligence Reform ....       ......    ........ 50
New Approaches ...........    ................... . 51
Weapons Pro iferation ........................   52
Problems of intelligence Collection .............. .. 56
Problems of Intelligence Analysis  .............. ........  61
Pressures from Consumers of Intelligence ....................... 64
BEYOND IRAQ                             65
War on Terrorism                      66
Arab-Israeli Confict ............       68
Conficts in Waiting  .......      .     70



Library of Congress subject headings for this publication: Iraq War, 2003-Iraq War, 2003- Diplomatic history, War on Terrorism, 2001-United States Military policy, National security United States