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CHINA'S SPECTACULAR GROWTH SINCE THE MID-1990S - MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND ECONOMIC POLICY CHANGES Heiner Flassbeck, in collaboration with Sebastian Dullien and Michael Geiger A bstract ............................. ......................................................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................................... . . ......... I. China's Growth Performance in Perspective .......................................... 4 I. 1 Exports and the external balance ................................................ 4 1.2 Domestic developments: investment and consumption .............. 8 1.3 Price and exchange-rate developments ........................................ 11 II. China's Successful Heterodox Policy Mix ................................................. 14 II.1 The exchange-rate regime and its influence on exports and capital accumulation ................................................ 15 11.2 The role of the wage regime .......................... ............................. 19 11.3 Complementary macroeconomic management ........................... 31 III. The R ole of FD I .................................................................................. 35 IV . Policy Conclusions ........................................ .......................... ............. 37 References ........................................ 41 Figure 1 GDP Per Capita Growth, Initial + 10 Years ......................................... 7 2 Export Performances in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea ........ 7 3 Developments of Imports in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea .................................................................. 8 4 Investments in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea ....................... 9 5 Consumption Growth in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea ....... 10 6 Wage Increase and Productivity Growth in Chinese M anufacturing .................................................................... 10 7 Inflation and Nominal Exchange Rate, 1987-2002 .............................. 12 8 Different Measures for China's Real Effective Exchange Rate .................................................. 13