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I Foreign Economic Policy for the United States 1 A New Foreign Economic Policy for the United States 3 C. Fred Bergsten Short-Run Agenda 7 Domestic Foundations of Foreign Economic Policy 15 The New Global Context 19 Proposals for Policy 24 US Foreign Economic Diplomacy 50 Conclusions 55 II The Policy Context 2 The Payoff to America from Global Integration 65 Scott C. Bradford, Paul L. E. Grieco, and Gary Clyde Hufbauer The Payoff from Past Liberalization 71 The Payoff from Future Liberalization 86 Conclusion 95 Appendix 2A Intermediate Imports: Gains Through Worker Productivity 102 Appendix 2B An Estimate of Labor Adjustment Costs 106 3 Uneven Gains and Unbalanced Burdens? Three Decades of American Globalization 111 J. David Richardson Uneven Gains? 112 Unbalanced Burdens? 116 Quo Vadis American Policy? 118 4 China: The Great New Economic Challenge? 121 Nicholas R. Lardy China's Emergence in the Global Economy 122 US-China Economic Relations 125 Causes of the Bilateral Trade Imbalance 126 China as a Technological Leapfrog 131 China's Exchange Rate 134 Implications for US Policy 137 5 The United States and the Large Emerging-Market Economies: Competitors or Partners? 143 Jan E. Boyer and Edwin M. Truman Summary of Recommendations 145 Who Are the LEMs? 147 Why Are the LEMs Important to the United States and the World? 151 How Should the United States Deal with the LEMs? 154 Active Collaboration Between the United States and LEMs 162 Budgetary Reality Check 170 III The Key Issues 6 Sustaining Global Growth while Reducing External Imbalances 175 Michael Mussa Forces Behind the Recent Rise of the US External Deficit 178 Emergence of the "Twin Deficits" During the 1980s 179 Factors Behind the Strong Dollar of the Late 1990s 181 Recent Developments and Future Prospects 183 Sustainable Scale of External Imbalances 184 General Need for Exchange Rate Adjustment 189 Industrial-Country Policies to Contribute to Orderly Reduction of External Imbalances 193 Key Issues for Developing Countries in the Orderly Reduction of International Imbalances 201 Conclusion: Virtues of Some International Policy Cooperation 206 7 Energy: A Gathering Storm? 209 Philip K. Verleger Jr. Sources of Strain in Global Energy Markets 210 Strains on the Oil Market: Repeating History 221 Scenarios for World Oil Markets and the World Economy 222 Economic Impacts of the Next Price Shock 225 Moderating or Avoiding the Impending Energy Crisis 228 Short-Term Measures to Address the Current Problem 230 Long-Term Strategies for Addressing the Energy Problem 236 Conclusion: Time Is Short and Action Is Required 243 Appendix 7A The BP Prudhoe Bay Trust's Link to WTI 245 8 Confronting Current Challenges to US Trade Policy 247 Jeffrey J. Schott Domestic Trade Policy Agenda 250 International Trade Agenda 259 Conclusions 277 9 Offshore Outsourcing and the Globalization of US Services: Why Now, How Important, and What Policy Implications 281 Catherine L. Mann Globalization of Services: How New? How Different? 283 How Important Is Globalization of Services for the United States? 287 Globalization of Services and Jobs: The Numbers for the United States 293 Globalization of IT and US Performance 299 Globalization of Services: Is There No End to It? 305 Responding to Global Sourcing: Maximizing Gains and Moderating the Backlash 305 Final Words 309 10 Easing the Adjustment Burden on US Workers 313 Lori G. Kletzer and Howard Rosen Trade Adjustment Assistance 316 Unfinished Business 325 A More Ambitious Agenda 331 Recent Congressional Activity 336 MFA Removal 336 Legislative Opportunities 337 Summary and Conclusion 339 Appendix 10A Highly Import-Competing Industries, 1979-2001 341 11 Challenges for US Immigration Policy 343 Gordon H. Hanson Past and Current US Immigration Policy 344 Profile of US Immigration 348 Benefits and Costs of Immigration 355 Reforming US Immigration Policy 365 12 The International Financial Architecture 373 Morris Goldstein Discouraging "Beggar Thy Neighbor" Exchange Rate Policies 376 Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Economies 381 Debt Sustainability 384 International Standards and Codes 388 Early Warning Systems 392 IMF Lending Policies 394 Concluding Remarks 400 13 Fostering Development 409 William R. Cline and John Williamson Trade 413 Development Assistance 419 Concluding Remarks 424