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List of Tables ....... .........................................iv List of Figures ...... ............................................ v Acknowledgements .................. ............................ vi 1 Introduction .................................................1 2 Background and review of literature ..................................... 4 2.1 Scope for improvements in livestock technology ......................... 4 2.2 Measuring aggregate productivity ... ..................................... 5 3 Productivity growth, 'catching up' and technical change ..................... 8 4 Productivity growth and decomposition for 1961-97 ........................ 10 5 Productivity forecasts.......... .... .................................. 14 5.1 Catching-up and the logistic function ... ................................ 14 5.2 Technical change-Estimation of the frontier ............ ........... 15 5.3 Forecasting .............. ...................................19 6 Implications for trade: Projections to 2005 ................................ 22 6.1 Trade model and database ..................................... .22 6.2 Macro-economic projections .... .................................. . 22 6.3 Results .................... ............................. 24 7 Summary and conclusions ......................................... 32 References .............. ...................................... ..33Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Animal industry, Livestock Marketing, Livestock productivity