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Preface vii Acknowledgments ix PART ONE: INTRODUCTION 1. Regime Vulnerability and International Conflict 3 PART TWO: THEORY 2. Coup Risk and Military Division: Hostility within the Armed Forces and Regime Survival 17 3. A Theory of Counterbalancing as a Cause of International Conflict 35 PART THREE: DATA 4. Regime Vulnerability, Counterbalancing, and International Conflict during the Cold War: A Quantitative Analysis Aaron Belkin and Evan Schofer 55 5. Regime Vulnerability as a Cause of Counterbalancing in Syria in the Early 1970s 69 6. When Dividing the Military Provides an Incentive for Conflict: Fragmented Military Forces and International Conflict in Shevardnadze's Georgia 101 7. Conclusion 115 Notes 123 References 131 Index 157 Suny Series in Global Politics 159Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: International relations, Conflict management, World politics