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1. Measures of Risk: Rates and Probabilities, 1 Rates, 2 Probabilities, 6 Incidence and prevalence, 8 Survival probabilities and hazard rates, 12 Statistical properties of probabilities calculated from mortality or disease data, 14 Analysis of rates: smoothing, transforming, and adjusting, 22 2. Variation and Bias, 40 A simple model, 41 The t-test, 43 Selection bias, 48 Confounder bias, 50 Ecologic bias, 52 Comparison of k groups, 54 Interaction contrasts, 58 Two-way analysis, 62 Misclassification bias, 69 3. Statistical Power and Sample Size Calculations, 75 Technical details, 75 Normal distribution: sample mean, 79 Poisson distribution: relative risk, 80 Sample size: one-sample test of a proportion, 82 Sample size: two-sample test of proportions, 84 Loss of statistical power and bias from grouping continuous data, 88 4. Cohort Data: Description and Illustration, 93 Cohort effect: model, 94 Birth cohort effect and proportional mortality data, 97 Median polish analysis, 100 Mean polish analysis, 102 Four examples, 104 Cohort effect: prostatic cancer data, 110 5. Spatial Data: Analysis and Estimation, 120 Poisson model, 121 Nearest-neighbor analysis, 125 Transformed maps, 130 Spatial distribution about a point, 135 Time/distance spatial analysis, 138 Randomization test, 143 Time/distance: randomization test, 146 Bootstrap estimation and analysis, 149 6. The 2 X k Table and the 2 X 2 X 2 Table, 159 The 2 X k contingency table, 159 Independence and homogeneity, 160 Regression, 165 Two-sample model: comparison of two means, 169 Ridit probability analysis, 173 The 2 X 2 X 2 contingency table, 179 7. The Analysis of Contingency Table Data: Logistic Model I, 190 The simplest model: discrete case, 191 The 2 X 2 X 2 table, 199 The 2 X k table, 208 The 2 x 2 x k table, 213 The multiway table, 221 Goodness-of-fit: discrete case, 224 Summarizing a series of 2 X 2 tables, 227 8. The Analysis of Binary Data: Logistic Model II, 236 Simplest logistic regression: continuous case, 236 Bivariate logistic regression, 240 Logistic regression coefficients: general considerations, 248 "Centering", 249 The WCGS additive logistic model, 252 Case/control sampling, 259 9. The Analysis of Count Data: Poisson Model, 263 Simplest Poisson model, 264 Poisson model: technical description, 265 Illustration of the Poisson model, 266 Poisson model adjusted rate: Hodgkins disease, 268 Possion regression: CHD risk by smoking and behavior type, 273 Count data: application of the Poisson model, 276 Poisson regression: a two-way classification, 278 Poisson regression: a three-way classification, 283 10. The Analysis of Matched Data: Three Approaches, 291 Frequency matching, 292 Poststratification, 294 Matched analysis: continuous variable, 296 Matched case/control pairs: binary risk factor, 300 Confidence interval for the odds ratio, 305 Evaluating the estimated odds ratio, 307 Disregarding matching, 309 Interactions with the matching variable, 311 Matched sets using more than one control, 313 Matched analysis: multilevel categorical risk factor, 317 Conditional logistic analysis, 320 11. Life Table Analysis: An Introduction, 335 Complete, current life table: construction, 336 Life table survival function, 350 Life table hazard function, 350 Life tables: three applications of life table techniques, 356 Competing risks, 372 12. Survival Data: Estimation of Risk, 378 Parametric model, 379 Age adjustment of rates, 382 Censored and truncated data, 384 Mean survival time: parametric estimate, 386 Mean survival time: nonparametric estimate, 390 Mean survival time from censored data, 393 Goodness-of-fit, 396 Two-sample data, 399 The Wilcoxon test and the Gehan generalization to survival data, 407 13. Survival Data: Proportional Hazards Model, 412 Simplest case, 413 The proportional hazards model, 417 Plotting survival curves, 420 Four applications of a proportional hazards model, 421 Dependency on follow-up time, 439 Appendix, 443 A. Description of the WCGS data set, 443 B. Binomial and Poisson probability distributions, 445 C. The odds ratio and its properties, 448 D. Partitioning the chi-square statistic, 454 E. Maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood functions, 457 F. Problems, 464 References, 479 Index, 487Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Epidemiology Statistical methods