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Acknowledgments PART ONE The Cyclical Worldview 1 The Resurrection of Risk 2 A History of Cycles 3 Why the Economy Rises and Falls 4 The Boom and Bust of the 1990s PART TWO Leading Indicators 101 5 Turning Points and Leading Indicators 6 Our International Experience 7 Measuring Business Cycles: The State of the Art PART THREE The Economic Dashboard 8 How to Read the Economic Indicators 9 What Do I Do? Real-Life Scenarios 10 The Discipline of a Cyclical Approach Appendix A: Crystal Balls-Up Appendix B: Business Cycle Peak and Trough Dates, 20 Countries, 1948-2001 Notes IndexLibrary of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Economic forecasting, Recessions, Business cycles, Finance Decision making