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Introduction 1
Topic and Research Problem 1
The Nature of Maritime Power 4
The Character of Maritime Power 5
Research Assumptions and Method 6
Chapter 1: The Historic Importance of Sea Power 11
The History of Sea Power 11
Great Sea Powers in History 13
Defining Sea Power 14
Sources of Sea Power 16
Principles of Military Power 17
Navies in the Nuclear Era 21
Mercantile Power 24
Summary of the History of Sea Power 25
Chapter 2: The Impact of Technological Innovation 35
Science, Technology, and Human Progress 35
The Meaning of Science and Technology 37
Pace of Innovation 38
Science, Technology, and Military Power 40
The Myth of the Battleship Admirals 46
Declining Force Structures 50
The Risks of Complacency 52
Drawing Board to Field 56
Rich and Poor Nations 61
Second Tier vs. First Tier-Instability of
State Power Rankings 61
Natural Resource Availability and the Role of Sea Power 64
The Strategic Importance of Natural Resources 67
Technology Leading Exploration 67
Technology Changing the Nature of Maritime Power 68
Conclusion 69
Chapter 3: National Merchant Marines and Economic
Reliance on Sea Power 85
Maritime Power and Transportation 85
Planes and Boats 87
United States' Exports, by Method of Transport:
1980 to 1994 88
Merchant Fleets and Force Projection 89
Ammunition Expenditures per Type Unit per Day
in Standard Tons 92
The Decline of the American Merchant Marine 93
Dangers of Dependence on Foreign Shipping 94
Merchant Vessels, World and United States: 1960 to 1993 96
Merchant Fleets of the World per Registry: 1993 97
World Merchant Fleets per Vessel Owner: As of
January 1,1997 98
Imitation as Flattery 99
Chapter 4: Sea Power in the 21st Century 105
Sea Power in the 21st Century 105
Technology's Two-Way Street 108
Proving the Future 109
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Sea-power Forecasting, Twenty-first century Forecasts