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1 What is the Purpose of the Study 2 What is Climate Change Climate Change - An Introduction Progress with Climate Change at the International Level Progress with Climate Change at the National Level The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research The UK Climate Impacts Programme References 3 Characterisation of the East Midlands Overview The Physical Context Sub Areas Infrastructure Economy Overview Agriculture Tourism and Leisure Energy Social Conditions Population Social Deprivation Housing Natural Environment Biodiversity Water Air Quality Land Use Woodland and Forestry Cultural Heritage The Environment Agency's East Midlands Local Environment Agency Plans (LEAPs) Conclusions References 4 Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the East Midlands Summary Observed Trends in Environmental Parameters Future Climate Scenariosfor the East Midlandsfrom UKCIP98 Comparison of Regional Climate Change Scenarios Observed Trends in Environmental Parameters Historic Trends in Temperature Historic Trends in Precipitation and Gales Historic Trends in Evaporation and Humidity Historic Trends in River Flow Historic Trends in Sea Level Historic Trends in Water Quality Future Climate Scenarios for the East Midlands UKCIP98 Scenarios Climate Change Analogues Regional Climate Model Scenario Statistically Downscaled Scenarios Statistical Downscaling (SDS) Compared with Raw HadCM2 (GCM) Concluding Remarks Recommendations for Future Research Acknowledgement References 5 Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the East Midlands Introduction Classification of Impact Domains Sectors/Systems Agriculture and Horticulture Forestry Water Resources and Flooding Biodiversity Cultural Heritage Leisure and Tourism Transport The Impact of Climate Change upon the Built Environment Manufacturing/Services and Retail Insurance Public Health Energy Coastal Zone Summnary References East Midlands' Stakeholder Perceptions of Climate Change Results of the Postal Questionnaire and Analysis How Important is Climate Change in Relation to Other Key Issues? The Impacts of Particular Types of Climate Change The Impacts of One Climate Change Scenario upon Twenty Sectors Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Differences between Business and Non-Business Responses Commentary on the Questionnaire Summary Results from a Set of Five Workshops Highlightsfrom the Environment Agency Workshop Highlightsfrom Buxton Workshop Highlightsfrom Nottingham Workshop Highlightsfrom Skegness Workshop Highlightsfrom Workshop in Northampton Discussion and Analysis of Workshops Conclusions References 7 Greenhouse Gas Inventory Summary Introduction Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data Emissions Estimation Methods Data Used in Determining Emissions Uncertainty Monitoring Future Emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source Combustion in Energy Production and Transformation Combustion in Commercial, Public, Residential and Agricultural Sectors Combustion in industry Production Processes Extraction/Distribution of Fossil Fuels Road Transport Other Transport and Mobile Machinery Waste Treatment and Disposal Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Change Other Industrial Sources East Midlands Initiatives to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Future Activities and Opportunities Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Recommendations References 8 Responding to Climate Change and Conclusions Introduction Organisational and Company Responses to Climate Change Impacts The Concept of Climate Change Headroom What are the Key Strategic Processes in the East Midlands that Should be Considering the Potential Impacts of Climate Change? What Indicators Should be Used for Climate Change? Climate Change Targets Future Research Requirements References Appendix 1 Questionnaire: The Impacts of Climate Change in the East Midlands Appendix 2 Notes on Buxton Stakeholder Workshop Appendix 3 Notes on Nottingham Stakeholder Workshop Appendix 4 Notes on Skegness Stakeholder Workshop Appendix S Notes on Northampton Stakeholder Workshop