Bibliographic record and links to related information available from the Library of Congress catalog.
Note: Contents data are machine generated based on pre-publication provided by the publisher. Contents may have variations from the printed book or be incomplete or contain other coding.
Contents List of Abbreviations List of Boxes List of Figures List of Maps List of Tables Preface Acknowledgments 1 Introduction 1.1 Global Poverty 1.2 The Character and Extent of Poverty 1.2.1 The Spatial Nature of Poverty 1.2.2 The Social Nature of Poverty 1.3 Why This Report? 1.3.1 The Need for a Long Horizon 1.3.2 The Importance of Maintaining Global and Country-Specific Perspectives 1.3.3 The Value of a Deep and Integrated Look at Poverty Drivers 1.3.4 Integrated Methodology 1.4 Caveats and Cautions 1.4.1 Conflicts over Poverty Conceptualization 1.4.2 Data and Measurement Limitations 1.4.3 Model Limitations 1.4.4 Limitations on Interpretation 1.4.5 Why Do This Exercise? 1.5 Roadmap for This Volume 1.6 Conclusion 2 Concepts and Measurement 2.1 The Concept and Measurement of Poverty 2.2 Income Poverty: Absolute Measures 2.2.1 The Poverty Headcount and Headcount Ratio 2.2.2 The Poverty Gap and the FGT Family of Measures 2.2.3 Setting Absolute Poverty Levels 2.3 Income Poverty, Relatively Speaking 2.4 The Capabilities Approach to Poverty 2.4.1 Some Basic Issues 2.4.2 The Relationship Between Income Poverty and Capability Poverty 2.4.3 Measurement of Poverty in This Study 2.5 Conceptualization and Measurement Perspectives Have Consequences 2.5.1 Poverty Incidence and Resource Availability 2.5.2 The Problem of Aggregation 2.5.3 Thinking Across Rime 2.5.4 Markets Are Not the Only Institutions 2.6 Controversies Related to Measurement and Data 2.6.1 National Income Accounts Versus Household Survey Data 2.6.2 The Ppp Basket and Base Year Changes 2.6.3 How Should We Proceed? 2.7 Conclusion 3 Drivers and Strategies for Poverty Reduction 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The Proximate Drivers of Poverty 3.2.1 The Connection Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty 3.2.2 Decomposition of Poverty Changes into Growth and Distribution Effects 3.2.3 Pro-Poor Growth 3.3 The Deep Drivers of Poverty 3.3.1 Listing Deep Drivers of Economic Growth 3.3.2 Further Exploring the Deep Drivers of Economic Growth 3.3.3 Surveying Deep Drivers of Population 3.3.4 Surveying Deep Drivers of Inequality 3.4 Policies to Reduce Poverty: A Selective Survey 3.4.1 An Early Framework: Ahluwalia, Carter, and Chenery (1979) 3.4.2 The World Bank?s Policies 3.4.3 The Asian Development Bank?s Policies 3.4.4 The United Nations and the Millennium Development Plan 3.4.5 Policies: A Summary Table 3.5 Poverty Reduction Strategies: A Search for Silver Bullets? 4 Tools for Exploring the Future of Global Poverty 4.1 Foundational Forecasting 4.2 Contemporary Forecasting and Simulation 4.2.1 United Nations Development Program 4.2.2 The World Bank 4.3 Weaknesses in Our Tools for Thinking About the Future of Poverty 4.4 Desired Model Structure and Capabilities 4.5 The International Futures (IFs) Modeling System 4.6 The Foundations in IFs for Poverty Analysis 4.6.1 Initialization of Poverty Levels 4.6.2 Income Poverty Formulations 4.7 Conclusion 5 The IFs Base Case: A Foundation for Analysis 5.1 Population Growth 5.2 Economic Growth 5.2.1 IFs Long-Term Forecasts 5.2.2 Mid-Range Forecasts for Comparison 5.2.3 Long-Range Forecasts for Comparison 5.3 Economic Distribution 5.3.1 Forecasting Domestic Inequality 5.3.2 Forecasting Global Inequality 5.3.3 An Emerging Global Middle Class 5.4 Poverty Levels 5.4.1 Moving Beyond $1 and $2 per Day 5.4.2 Moving Beyond Income Poverty 5.5 Conclusion 6 The Future of Poverty: Framing Uncertainty 6.1 Framing Uncertainty with Proximate Drivers 6.1.1 Population 6.1.2 Economic Growth 6.1.3 Distribution 6.1.4 Proximate Drivers in Combination 6.1.5 Insights from the Analysis of Framing Scenarios with Proximate Drivers 6.2 Framing Uncertainty with Integrated Scenarios 6.2.1 Building on the Global Scenario Group: The Global Environment Outlook 6.2.2 Comparison of the UNEP Geo Scenarios with Best- and Worst-Case Forecasts 6.3 Framing the Future of Poverty More Fully 6.3.1 A More Extensive Look at Income Poverty 6.3.2 Turning to Capabilities 6.4 Conclusion 7 Changing the Future of Poverty: Human Leverage 7.1 Operationalizing the Levers 7.1.1 Tailoring the Interventions: Geographic Focus 7.1.2 Tailoring the Interventions: Magnitude 7.2 Primarily Domestic Drivers and Levers 7.2.1 Fertility 7.2.2 Labor and Capital 7.2.3 Driving Productivity: Human Capital 7.2.4 Driving Productivity: Social Capital and Governance 7.2.5 Driving Productivity: Infrastructure Capital 7.2.6 Driving Productivity: Natural Capital 7.2.7 Driving Productivity: Knowledge 7.2.8 Domestic Transfers 7.3 Primarily International Drivers and Levers 7.3.1 A Survey 7.3.2 Trade and Foreign Direct Investment 7.3.3 Worker Remittances 7.3.4 Foreign Aid 7.3.5 Technology Transfers 7.4 Summarizing Drivers and Levers in IFs 7.5 Silver Bullets? 7.5.1 Internal Leverage 7.5.2 External Leverage 7.6 Intervention Packages 7.6.1 Simple Additive Combination 7.6.2 Strategic Orientations 7.7 Conclusion 8 Multiple Faces of Poverty and Its Future 8.1 Scanning Poverty Across Countries 8.2 Africa 8.2.1 Scanning the Continent 8.2.2 Understanding the Patterns of Large Countries 8.2.3 Extending the Analysis 8.2.4 Scenario Analysis and African Poverty 8.3 Asia 8.3.1 Scanning the Continent 8.3.2 Understanding the Historical Patterns of Large Asian Countries 8.3.3 Exploring Future Asian Poverty: The Case of India 8.3.4 Asian Poverty: Now You Don?t See It, Now You Do 8.3.5 Scenario Analysis and Asian Poverty 8.4 The Americas 8.4.1 Scanning the Continent 8.4.2 The Future of Poverty in Central America and the Caribbean 8.4.3 Other Stratifications That Affect Poverty in the Americas 8.4.4 Foundations for Future Poverty Reduction and Potential for Acceleration 8.5 Europe 8.5.1 Scanning the Continent 8.5.2 Scenario Analysis and Eastern European Poverty 8.6 Conclusion 9 Poverty in a Broader Context 9.1 Natural Resources, the Environment, and Poverty 9.1.1 Introduction 9.1.2 Conceptualizing the Links Between Poverty and the Environment 9.1.3 Connecting the Environment to the Drivers of Poverty 9.1.4 Implications 9.2 Conflict and Poverty 9.2.1 The Influence of Poverty on Conflict 9.2.2 Nonpoverty Determinants of Conflicts 9.2.3 The Influence of Conflict on Poverty 9.2.4 The Conflict Trap 9.2.5 What Can Be Done Externally? 9.2.6 The Implications of Having Omitted Conflict from the Analysis 9.3 Governance and Poverty 9.3.1 Corruption Causes Poverty 9.3.2 Poverty Causes Corruption 9.3.3 External Involvement and Governance 9.3.4 Implications for Our Analysis 9.4 Conclusion 10 The Future of Global Poverty and Human Development 10.1 What Have We Learned? 10.2 What Are Our Uncertainties? 10.3 What Next? Appendix 1 Cross-Sectional and Lognormal Formulations for Poverty 1.1 Cross-Sectional Analysis of Change in Poverty 1.2 Lognormal Analysis of Change in Poverty Appendix 2 Using Lognormal Income Distributions Appendix 3 Deep Drivers of Economic Growth and Distribution 3.1 Deep Drivers of Economic Growth 3.2 Deep Drivers of Distribution Appendix 4 Countries in UN Regions and Subregions Appendix 5 Points of Leverage in International Futures (IFs) Bibliography Forecast Tables Index About the Authors
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Poverty -- Government policy.
Income distribution.
Globalization.