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CONTENTS Preface xv Acknowledgments xix Contributors xxi 1 Introduction, by Fritz Scheuren and Wendy Alvey 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 DEFINITIONS 3 1.3 BRIEF HISTORY 5 1.4 A DAY IN THE LIFE OF AN EXIT POLL 7 1.4.1 Excerpt from Election Night Estimation, by Warren J. Mitofsky and Murray Edelman 7 1.5 THEORY AND METHODOLOGY 9 1.6 RECENT ELECTORAL APPLICATIONS 11 1.7 SOME MAJOR LIMITATIONS 12 1.8 RECOMMENDATIONS AND A FEW PREDICTIONS 13 1.9 REFERENCES 13 ix x CONTENTS 2 The Infamous 2000 Election 17 2.1 INTRODUCTION 17 2.2 ANALYSIS: LOOKING BACK 19 2.2.1 Excerpt from: Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Elections in Florida, by Kirk Wolter, Diana Jergovic, Whitney Moore, Joe Murphy, and Colm O?Muircheartaigh 19 2.2.2 Excerpt from: Predicting the Bush/Gore Election from the Press: The Cost to George W. Bush of his November Surprise of an Old Arrest, by David P. Fan 33 2.3 DATA QUALITY 37 2.3.1 Applying AAPOR?s Final Disposition Codes and Outcome Rates to the 2000 Utah Colleges? Exit Poll, by Melaney Slater and Howard Christensen 37 2.3.2 Party IdentificationWeighting: Experiments to Improve Survey Quality, by Olena Kaminska and Christopher Barnes 51 2.4 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS 61 3 2004: Fraudulent Election? 63 3.1 INTRODUCTION 63 3.2 THE GREAT ELECTION DEBATE 65 3.2.1 Excerpt from: Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004, by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International 66 3.2.2 The Argument for Fraud, by Wendy Alvey 69 3.2.3 Excerpt from: Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism: Surveying the 2004 Election Debate, by Mark Lindeman 71 3.3 CONFIDENTIALITY?ANOTHER SIDE OF THE CONTROVERSY 80 3.3.1 Excerpt from: Explaining Discrepancies between Official Votes and Exit Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election, by Susan Kyle, Douglas A. Samuelson, Fritz Scheuren, and Nicole Vicinanza 80 3.4 FURTHER RESEARCH 90 3.4.1 Ohio Election Analysis, by Mary Batcher, Yan Liu and Fritz Scheuren 91 CONTENTS xi 3.5 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS 96 4 Mid-Term Elections: 2006 99 4.1 INTRODUCTION 99 4.2 PRE-ELECTION POLLS 101 4.2.1 Poll and Races: The Impact of Methods and Conditions on the Accuracy of 2006 Pre-Election Polls, by Chase Harrison 101 4.2.2 Excerpt from: A New Age Solution for an Age-Old Problem: Mining Data for Likely Voters, by Gregg R. Murray, Chris Riley, and Anthony Scime 108 4.2.3 Excerpt from: Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls, by Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, and Christopher Wlezien 118 4.3 REFERENDA ON THE BALLOT 123 4.3.1 The Role of Direct Democracy in California Governance: Public Opinion on Making Policy at the Ballot Box, by Mark Baldassare and Cheryl Katz 123 4.4 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS 136 5 Globe-trotting Consultant 137 5.1 INTRODUCTION 137 5.2 AHISTORICALLOOKAT EXIT POLLS FROMAMEXICAN PERSPECTIVE 143 5.2.1 Excerpt from: Exit Polls as Valuable Tools to Understand Voting Behavior: Using an Advanced Design in Mexico?History, by Ren?e Bautista, Marco A. Morales, Francisco Abundis, and Mario Callegaro 143 5.3 MUSLIM OPINIONS ON POLITICAL REFORM 147 5.3.1 Excerpt From: Muslims and Democracy: Stability and Change in Public Opinions, by Fares Braizat 147 5.4 A MEXICAN CASE STUDY 149 5.4.1 Excerpt from: Nonresponse in Exit Poll Methodology: A Case Study in Mexico?Mixed Modes, by Ren¿ Bautista, Mario Callegaro, Jose Alberto Vera, and Francisco Abundis 150 xii CONTENTS 5.4.2 Excerpt from: Nonresponse in Exit Poll Methodology: A Case Study in Mexico?Nonignorable Response, by Ren¿ Bautista, Mario Callegaro, Jose Alberto Vera, and Francisco Abundis 153 5.4.3 Excerpt from: Exit Polls as Valuable Tools to Understand Voting Behavior: Using an Advanced Design in Mexico?Measurement Error, by Ren¿ Bautista, Marco A. Morales, Francisco Abundis, and Mario Callegaro 155 5.5 PRE-ELECTION POLLING IN NAGANO, JAPAN 161 5.5.1 Differently Administered Questionnaires: Findings from Surveys of Asahi Shimbun for the 2006 Nagano Gubernatorial Election, by Nicolaos Synodinos and Eiji Matsuda 162 5.6 SWEDISH PUBLIC OPINION POLLS 174 5.6.1 A Comparison Between Using the Web and Using Telephone to Survey Political Opinions, by Annica Isaksson and G¿sta Forsman 175 5.7 ELECTION POLLING IN CANADA 183 5.7.1 Voting Irregularities in the 1995 Referendum on Qu?ebec Sovereignty, by Jason Cawley and Paul Sommers 183 5.8 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS 186 6 Looking Ahead: Recommendations for 2008 and Beyond 189 6.1 INTRODUCTION 189 6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE FUTURE 190 6.2.1 Excerpt from: Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 (NEP), by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International 190 6.3 SOME RECENT RESEARCH 193 6.3.1 Excerpt from: Exit Polls and Ethnic Diversity: How to Improve Estimates and Reduce Bias Among Minority Voters, by Francisco Pedraza and Matt Barreto 194 6.3.2 How Serious Is Polling?s Cell-Only Problem? The Landline-less Are Different and Their Numbers Are Growing Fast, by Scott Keeter 203 CONTENTS xiii 6.3.3 Evaluating Follow-up Probes to Don?t Know Responses in Political Polls, by LinChiat Chang, Keating Holland, and Jeri Piehl 206 6.4 GUIDELINES FOR QUALITY POLLING 213 6.4.1 AAPOR Standards for Minimal Disclosure, by The American Association for Public Opinion Research 214 6.4.2 WAPOR Guidelines for Exit Polls and Election Forecasts, by WAPOR Exit Poll Committee 215 6.5 NEXT STEPS 219 6.5.1 General Principles for Statistical Election Auditing, by Wendy Rotz and Edward Gracely 220 6.5.2 Producing a 2008 National Election Voter Scorecard, by Edward Mulrow and Fritz Scheuren 230 6.6 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS 238 7 Technical Appendix 241 7.1 INTRODUCTION 241 7.2 STATISTICAL METHODS FOR PAPERS IN THIS VOLUME 242 7.2.1 Supplemental Excerpt from: Predicting Likely Voters: Using a New Age Methodology for an Age-Old Problem, by Gregg R. Murray, Chris Riley, and Anthony Scime 242 7.2.2 Supplemental Excerpt from: Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida, by Kirk Wolter, Diana Jergovic, Whitney Moore, Joe Murphy, and Colm O?Muircheartaigh 246 7.2.3 Appendix to: Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls, by Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, and Christopher Wlezien 262 7.3 Appendix: Survey Questions 263 7.3.1 A Comparison Between Using the Web and Using Telephone to Survey Political Opinions, by Annica Isaksson and G?osta Forsman 264 7.4 ADDITIONAL METHODOLOGICAL PAPERS 265 7.4.1 Investigating Causes of Within Precinct Error in Exit Polls: Confounds and Controversies, by Mark Lindeman, Elizabeth Liddle, and Richard Brady 265 xiv CONTENTS 7.4.2 Reliable Compared to What? A Probability-Theory Based Test of the Reliability of Election Polls, by Joel David Bloom and Jennie Elizabeth Pearson 280 7.4.3 Percentage-based versus Statistical-power-based Vote Tabulation Audits, by John McCarthy, Howard Stanislevic, Mark Lindeman, Arlene S. Ash, Vittorio Addona, and Mary Batcher 293 7.5 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS 301
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Exit polling (Elections).
Election forecasting -- Data processing.