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Contents 1. The Challenges of Uncertainty: An Introduction Francis Fukuyama 2. Thinking about Catastrophe Richard A. Posner Part I. Cases: Looking Back 3. Slow Surprise: The Dynamics of Technology Synergy David Landes 4. U.S. Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perception Bruce Berkowitz 5. Econoshocks: The East Asian Crisis Case David Hale Part II. Cases: Looking Ahead 6. The Once and Future DARPA William Bonvillian 7. Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security Gal Luft and Anne Korin 8. Emerging Infectious Diseases: Are We Prepared? Scott Barrett Part III. Forecasting 9. Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall 10. Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful? Robert Lempert 11. Innovation and Adaptation: IT Examples Mitchell Waldrop Part IV. What Could Be 12. Cassandra vs. Pollyanna A Debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook 13. Global Discontinuities A Discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett 14. American Scenarios A Discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama Afterword Francis Fukuyama Contributors Index
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Emergency management -- United States.