Bibliographic record and links to related information available from the Library of Congress catalog.
Note: Contents data are machine generated based on pre-publication provided by the publisher. Contents may have variations from the printed book or be incomplete or contain other coding.
CONTENTS Preface iii RAND Project AIR FORCE iv Figures xiii Tables xv Summary xvii Research Approach xvii Analysis of Case Studies xix Contested, Incomplete, and Abdicated Governance xxi Implications and Recommendations xxii For the U.S. Government xxii For the Department of Defense xxv For The U.S. Air Force xxvi Acknowledgments xxxi Glossary, list of Symbols, etc. xxxiii 1. UNDERSTANDING LACK OF GOVERNANCE 1 Introduction 1 Methodology 3 Indicators of Ungovernability 4 Indicators of Conduciveness 5 Case Studies 5 2. DIMENSIONS OF UNGOVERNABILITY 8 State Penetration Into Society 8 Lack of Physical Infrastructure 10 Social and Cultural Resistance to Penetration by State Institutions 11 Monopoly on the Use of Force 12 Presence of Organized Armed Groups Outside of the State's Control 12 Presence of Criminal Networks Linked to Terrorist or Insurgent Groups 13 Population with Access to Weapons 14 Control Over Borders 14 External Interference 16 3. DIMENSIONS OF CONDUCIVENESS 19 Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access 20 Sources of Income 21 Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics 22 Presence of Extremist Groups or Communities Vulnerable to Outside Co-option or Intimidation. 23 Supportive Social Norms Among the Population. 23 A Pre-existing State of Violence or Communal Ethno-Religious Cleavages 24 Informal Social Assistance Programs Open to Exploitation 25 Criminal Syndicates Available for Hire 25 Invisibility 25 4. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CASE STUDIES 28 Dominant Characteristics of the Case Studies 28 The Pakistani-Afghan Border Region 28 The Arabian Peninsula 29 The Sulawesi/Mindanao Arc 30 The East Africa Corridor 31 West Africa 33 The North Caucasus 34 The Colombian-Venezuelan Border 35 The Guatemala-Chiapas Border 36 Toward a Typology of Ungoverned Territories 37 Contested Governance 37 Incomplete Governance 38 Abdicated Governance 38 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 42 Implications for the U.S. Government: Addressing Ungovernability 43 Reevaluate the Role of Development Assistance 43 Promote Regional Architectures 44 Mobilize Regional Organizations 45 Address Profound, Official Corruption Directly 46 Security Cooperation Implications 46 Implications for the U.S. Government: Addressing Conduciveness 48 Reduce Terrorist Exploitation of Infrastructure 48 Deny Terrorists Local Sources of Income 49 Prevent Exploitation of Assistance Programs 50 Support the Local Campaign Against Criminal Syndicates 51 Make Invisibility More Difficult to Achieve 51 Implications for the Department of Defense 52 Consider Ungoverned Territory in DOD Guidance 52 Security Cooperation Implications 54 Implications for the U.S. Air Force 56 Operational Issues 57 Security Cooperation Implications 59 Title Ten Issues 60 6. CASE STUDY: THE PAKISTANI-AFGHAN BORDER REGION 65 The Border Region as an Ungoverned Territory 65 Pakistani State Penetration into the Border Regions 67 Parallel Socio-Economic Systems and Structures 70 Prevalence of the Informal Economy 71 Lack of a Monopoly of Force 73 Presence of Organized Armed Groups 73 Presence of Criminal Networks 76 Population with Access to Arms 76 Compromised Sovereignty/Lack of Effective Border Control 78 Mitigating Factors 78 State Penetration 79 Localized Governing Arrangements 80 Border Control 81 Attributes of the Pakistani-Afghan Border Conducive to the Presence of Terrorist Groups 83 Adequacy of Infrastructure 83 Operational Access 88 Sources of Income 88 Favorable Demographic and Social Features 91 Presence of Extremist and Criminal Groups 91 Supportive Social Norms 92 Invisibility 95 U.S. Policies and programs 96 Scope of U.S. Counter-Terrorism Assistance Program 96 Partner Country Capabilities and Deficiencies 99 Policy Implications and Conclusions 101 7. CASE STUDY: THE ARABIAN PENINSULA 106 Geopolitical and Historical Context 107 The Arabian Peninsula as Ungoverned Territory 111 Lack of State Penetration 112 Lack of a Monopoly of Force 120 Terrorist Presence 120 Criminal Networks and Shadow Economy 124 Lack of Effective Border Control 127 External Interference 130 Assessment of Ungovernability 132 Attributes of the Arabian Peninsula Conducive to the Presence of Terrorist Groups 133 Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access 134 Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics 136 Vulnerable Populations and Supportive Social Norms 136 Exploitable Ethno-Religious Cleavages 138 Criminal Syndicates 139 Invisibility 140 Assessment of Conduciveness to Terrorism 141 U.S. Policies and Programs 141 U.S. Global Defense Posture Implications for Arabian Peninsula 142 Partner Country Capabilities Deficiencies 144 Democracy and Reform Programs: The Middle East Partnership Initiative 147 Policy Implications and Conclusions 148 8. CASE STUDY: THE SULAWESI-MINDANAO ARC 150 The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc as a JI Logistical and Transportation Hub 154 Lack of State Penetration 157 Central Sulawesi 157 Muslim Mindanao 158 Lack of Physical Infrastructure 161 Central Sulawesi 161 Muslim Mindanao 163 Corruption and Prevalence of Informal Economy 164 Social and Cultural Resistance 167 Central Sulawesi 167 Muslim Mindanao 168 Lack of a Monopoly of Force 171 Central Sulawesi 171 Muslim Mindanao 173 Compromised Sovereignty/Lack of Effective Border Control 179 Mitigating Factors 180 Assessment: The Sulawesi-Mindanao ARC as an Ungoverned Territory 181 Attributes of the Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc Conducive to the Presence of Terrorist and Insurgent Groups 181 Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access 182 Sources of Income 183 Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics 186 Invisibility 187 Assessment of the Conduciveness of the Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc to a Terrorist Presence 188 U.S. Policies and Programs 188 Deficiencies in Partner Country Capabilities 192 Policy Implications and Recommendations 194 9. CASE STUDY: THE EAST AFRICA CORRIDOR 197 Lack of State Penetration of Society 199 Lack of a Monopoly of Force 206 Organized Armed Groups 206 Criminal Networks 208 Population with Access to Arms 210 Lack of Border Controls 212 Adequacy of Infrastructure 215 Financial Infrastructure 215 Transportation and Communications 216 Operational Access 218 Sources of Income 219 Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics 222 Invisibility 225 Summary of East Africa's Conduciveness to Terrorism 228 U.S. and Western Policies and Programs 229 Is East Africa an Attractive Prospect for Terrorists? 232 Deficiencies in Partner Country Capabilities 232 Policy Implicatons and Recommendations 233 10. CASE STUDY: WEST AFRICA 236 Introduction 236 Overview of West Africa 237 West Africa as an Ungoverned Territory 240 Lack of State Penetration of Society 242 Adequacy of Infrastructure 245 Effects of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in West Africa 249 Formal and Informal Economies 252 Social and Cultural Resistance 256 Lack of Monopoly of Force 258 Lack of Border Controls 261 External Interference 262 Conduciveness to Terrorist Presence 266 Adequacy of Infrastructure 266 Sources of Income 267 Favorable Demographics 267 Invisibility 270 Summary of West Africa's Conduciveness to Terrorism 271 U.S. Policies and programs 272 U.S. Global Defense Posture Implications for West Africa 272 Partner Country Capabilities Deficiencies 275 Democracy Programs 278 Policy Implications and Conclusions 279 11. CASE STUDY: THE NORTH CAUCASUS 281 Introduction 281 Overview of the North Caucasus Region 282 The North Caucasus as an Ungoverned Territory 285 Physical Infrastructure 293 Prevalence of the Informal or Shadow Economy 299 Social and Cultural Resistance to State Penetration 302 Lack of a Monopoly of Force 307 Presence of Organized Armed Groups 307 Presence of Organized Crime Networks 312 Population with Access to Weapons 313 Lack of Border Controls 314 External Interference 314 Assessment of Ungovernability 316 Conduciveness to Terrorist Presence 318 Adequacy of Infrastructure 318 Operational Access 319 Favorable Demographic and Social Factors 320 Populations Vulnerable to Cooptation and Intimidation 322 Invisibility 322 Assessment of Conduciveness to Terrorism 323 Trends in the North Caucasus and Implications for U.S. Interests 323 Russia's Weakening Hold 324 Russia's Security Sector Reform Relative to the North Caucasus 326 Opportunities for Productive U.S.-Russian Relations 327 U.S. Assistance to the Region 328 Implications of U.S. Global Defense Posture 330 12. CASE STUDY: THE COLOMBIAN-VENEZUELAN BORDER 331 Introduction 331 The Colombian-Venezuelan Border as an Ungoverned Territory 334 Lack of State Penetration 335 Lack of Physical Infrastructure 341 Social and Cultural Resistance 344 Lack of Monopoly of Force 345 Organized Armed Groups 345 Criminal Networks 349 Population with Access to Arms 351 Lack of Border Controls 352 External Interference 354 Mitigating Factors 357 Attributes of the Colombian-Venezuelan Border Conducive to the Presence of Insurgent Groups 360 Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access 361 Income-Producing Activities 362 The Drug Trade 362 Other Sources of Income 365 Favorable Demographics 366 Supportive Social Norms 366 Presence of Foreign Extremist Groups 367 Invisibility 368 U.S. Policy and Programs 369 Policy Implications and Recommendations 372 Recommendations for the U.S. Government 372 Recommendations for the Defense Department and the U.S. Air Force 376 13. CASE STUDY: THE GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS BORDER 379 Introduction 379 The Guatemala-Chiapas Border as an Ungoverned Territory 383 Lack of State Penetration 384 Absence of State Institutions 384 Lack of Physical Infrastructure 387 Social and Cultural Resistance 388 Lack of Monopoly of Force 391 Organized Armed Groups and Criminal Networks 391 Population with Access to Arms 397 Lack of Effective Border Control 398 External Interference 399 Mitigating Factors 400 Attributes of the Guatemalan-Mexican Border Conducive to the Presence of Terrorist Groups 403 Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access 404 Sources of Income 406 Favorable Demographics 408 Supportive Social Norms 408 The Maras as Extremists 409 Invisibility 410 U.S. Policy Toward the Region 411 Policy Implications and Recommendations 413 Recommendations For the U.S. Government 414 Recommendations for the Defense Department and the U.S. Air Force: Controlling "Ungoverned Airspaces." 417 Annex A: Assessment of Ungovernability and Conduciveness Values for Ungoverned Territories 420 Bibliography 431 Books and Reports 431 Government, Non-Government and Other Official Reports 438 Web-Based Resources 440 Articles 442 FIGURES Figure 5.1; DoD Security Cooperation Planning Process 55 Figure 5.2; Impact of Ungovernability on USAF Title Ten Responsibilities 61 Figure 7.1; Arabian Peninsula and Vicinity 107 Figure 7.2; The Arabian Peninsula Population 112 Figure 7.3; The Arabian Peninsula-Infrastructure 114 Figure 7.4; Southern Borders of Saudi Arabia 128 Figure 7.5; Eastern Borders of Saudi Arabia 129 Figure 8.1; The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc-Political 150 Figure 8.2; The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc-Population 162 Figure 8.3; The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc-Infrastructure 163 Figure 10.1; West Africa 237 Figure 10.2; West Africa Population 239 Figure 10.3; West Africa Population (1000s) 241 Figure 10.4; West Africa Infrastructure 246 Figure 10.5; Road and Rail Networks in West Africa (1992-2002) 246 Figure 10.6; Main-line Telephony in West Africa 248 Figure 10.7; Mobile (Phone) Users in West Africa 249 Figure 10.8; West African HIV-AIDS Infection-rates (compared to other African countries) 251 Figure 11.1; Ethnic Breakdown of the North Caucasus 282 Figure 11.2; Northern Caucasus Population 293 Figure 11.3; Northern Caucasus Infrastructure 294 Figure 11.4; Smuggling Routes in the Caucasus. 300 Figure 12.1; Colombian-Venezuelan Border Region 336 Figure 12.2; Colombian-Venezuelan Border - Population 343 Figure 12.3; Colombian-Venezuelan Border / Roads 344 Figure 12.4; Illegal Armed Group Presence on Colombian-Venezuelan Border 348 Figure 13.1; Guatemalan-Mexican Border Area. 380 Figure 13.2; Massacres Per 10,000 Inhabitants 382 Figure 13.3; Linguistic Communities in Guatemala and Social Exclusion 389 TABLES Table S.1 Indicators of Ungovernability xix Table S.2 Indicators of Conduciveness to a Terrorist Presence xix Table 1.1 Case Selection Criteria 6 Table 2.1 Spatial Sources of Income for Terrorist Groups 22 Table 6.1 Indicators of Ungovernability; Pakistani-Afghan Border 83 Table 6.2 National Telecommunication Region (NTR) Capacity in NWFP 87 Table 6.3 Telephone Capacity in Baluchistan 87 Table 6.4 Conduciveness of the Afghan-Pakistan Border Region to a Terrorist Presence 96 Table 7.1 Arabian Peninsula Work Force 2002 110 Table 7.2 Arabian Peninsula Summary; Indicators of Ungovernability 133 Table 7.3 Arabian Peninsula Summary; Indicators of Conduciveness to Terrorism 141 Table 8.1 Comparative Poverty Rates in the Philippines and the ARMM 160 Table 8.2 Migration to Central Sulawesi, 1980-2000 168 Table 8.3 Sulawesi-Mindanao; Indicators of Ungovernability 181 Table 8.4 Sulawesi-Mindanao; Conduciveness to Terrorist Operations 188 Table 8.5 U.S. Security Assistance to the Philippines, FY01-FY06 189 Table 9.1 East Africa Summary of Indicators of Ungovernability 215 Table 9.2 East Africa Summary of Indicators of Conduciveness to Terrorism 229 Table 10.1 Population Densities in West Africa 238 Table 10.2 Summary of Indicators of Ungovernability West Africa 265 Table 10.3 Muslim Populations of West Africa 269 Table 10.4 Summary of Indicators of Conduciveness to a Terrorist Presence West Africa 272 Table 11.1 1999 Duma Election 286 Table 11.2 Distribution of Direct Federal Expenditures among the Regions in 1998 287 Table 11.3 Crimes recorded by the police per 100,000 of population 289 Table 11.4 Crimes Recorded by the Police, Committed in 2003 (by type) 290 Table 11.5 Number of Registered Homicides and Attempted Murders 291 Table 11.6 North Caucasus Ethnic Breakdown by Region 292 Table 11.7 Paved Roads and Railways in the North Caucasus 294 Table 11.8 Kilometers of Railways, 2000 295 Table 11.9 Passenger Transport by Public Bus 297 Table 11.10 Passenger Transport by Public Railway 297 Table 11.11 Number of Cellular, Data Transmission and Telematic Communication Service Subscribers 298 Table 11.12 Armed Groups in North Caucasus 308 Table 11.13 Indicators of Ungovernability: North Caucasus 318 Table 11.14 Indicators of Conduciveness / North Caucasus 323 Table 12.1 Colombia-Venezuela Border Summary: Indicators of Ungovernability 335 Table 12.2 Illegal Armed Groups Operations in Border Region 349 Table 12.3 Crime and Drug Trade Statistics in Colombian Border Region (2003) 350 Table 12.4 Insurgent Groups Areas of Operations in Venezuela 356 Table 12.5 Colombian-Venezuelan Indicators of Conduciveness 361 Table 12.6 U.S. Aid to Colombia 370 Table 13.1 Guatemala-Mexico Border Summary: Ungovernability 384 Table 13.2 Crime Statistics in Guatemala (2003) 387 Table 13.3 Guatemala-Mexico Border Summary Conduciveness to Terrorism 404 Table 13.4 U.S. Aid to Guatemala 413 Table A.1 Summary of Indicators of Ungovernability 422 Table A.2 Summary of Indicators of Conduciveness to Terrorist/Insurgent Presence 423 Table A.3 Indicators of Ungovernability-Arabian Peninsula 424 Table A.4 Indicators of Conduciveness to Terrorism-Arabian Peninsula 424 Table A.5 Indicators of Ungovernability-East Africa 425 Table A.6 Indicators of Conduciveness-East Africa 425 Table A.7 Indicators of Ungovernability-West Africa 426 Table A.8 Indicators of Conduciveness-West Africa 427
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Terrorism -- Prevention -- Case studies.
Political stability -- Case studies.