Table of contents for Ungoverned territories : understanding and reducing terrorism risks / Angel Rabasa ... [et al.].

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CONTENTS
Preface	iii
RAND Project AIR FORCE	iv
Figures	xiii
Tables	xv
Summary	xvii
Research Approach	xvii
Analysis of Case Studies	xix
Contested, Incomplete, and Abdicated Governance	xxi
Implications and Recommendations	xxii
For the U.S. Government	xxii
For the Department of Defense	xxv
For The U.S. Air Force	xxvi
Acknowledgments	xxxi
Glossary, list of Symbols, etc.	xxxiii
1. UNDERSTANDING LACK OF GOVERNANCE	1
Introduction	1
Methodology	3
Indicators of Ungovernability	4
Indicators of Conduciveness	5
Case Studies	5
2. DIMENSIONS OF UNGOVERNABILITY	8
State Penetration Into Society	8
Lack of Physical Infrastructure	10
Social and Cultural Resistance to Penetration by State Institutions
	11
Monopoly on the Use of Force	12
Presence of Organized Armed Groups Outside of the State's Control
	12
Presence of Criminal Networks Linked to Terrorist or Insurgent 
Groups	13
Population with Access to Weapons	14
Control Over Borders	14
External Interference	16
3. DIMENSIONS OF CONDUCIVENESS	19
Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access	20
Sources of Income	21
Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics	22
Presence of Extremist Groups or Communities Vulnerable to Outside 
Co-option or Intimidation.	23
Supportive Social Norms Among the Population.	23
A Pre-existing State of Violence or Communal Ethno-Religious 
Cleavages	24
Informal Social Assistance Programs Open to Exploitation	25
Criminal Syndicates Available for Hire	25
Invisibility	25
4. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CASE STUDIES	28
Dominant Characteristics of the Case Studies	28
The Pakistani-Afghan Border Region	28
The Arabian Peninsula	29
The Sulawesi/Mindanao Arc	30
The East Africa Corridor	31
West Africa	33
The North Caucasus	34
The Colombian-Venezuelan Border	35
The Guatemala-Chiapas Border	36
Toward a Typology of Ungoverned Territories	37
Contested Governance	37
Incomplete Governance	38
Abdicated Governance	38
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS	42
Implications for the U.S. Government: Addressing Ungovernability
	43
Reevaluate the Role of Development Assistance	43
Promote Regional Architectures	44
Mobilize Regional Organizations	45
Address Profound, Official Corruption Directly	46
Security Cooperation Implications	46
Implications for the U.S. Government: Addressing Conduciveness
	48
Reduce Terrorist Exploitation of Infrastructure	48
Deny Terrorists Local Sources of Income	49
Prevent Exploitation of Assistance Programs	50
Support the Local Campaign Against Criminal Syndicates	51
Make Invisibility More Difficult to Achieve	51
Implications for the Department of Defense	52
Consider Ungoverned Territory in DOD Guidance	52
Security Cooperation Implications	54
Implications for the U.S. Air Force	56
Operational Issues	57
Security Cooperation Implications	59
Title Ten Issues	60
6. CASE STUDY: THE PAKISTANI-AFGHAN BORDER REGION	65
The Border Region as an Ungoverned Territory	65
Pakistani State Penetration into the Border Regions	67
Parallel Socio-Economic Systems and Structures	70
Prevalence of the Informal Economy	71
Lack of a Monopoly of Force	73
Presence of Organized Armed Groups	73
Presence of Criminal Networks	76
Population with Access to Arms	76
Compromised Sovereignty/Lack of Effective Border Control	78
Mitigating Factors	78
State Penetration	79
Localized Governing Arrangements	80
Border Control	81
Attributes of the Pakistani-Afghan Border Conducive to the Presence 
of Terrorist Groups	83
Adequacy of Infrastructure	83
Operational Access	88
Sources of Income	88
Favorable Demographic and Social Features	91
Presence of Extremist and Criminal Groups	91
Supportive Social Norms	92
Invisibility	95
U.S. Policies and programs	96
Scope of U.S. Counter-Terrorism Assistance Program	96
Partner Country Capabilities and Deficiencies	99
Policy Implications and Conclusions	101
7. CASE STUDY: THE ARABIAN PENINSULA	106
Geopolitical and Historical Context	107
The Arabian Peninsula as Ungoverned Territory	111
Lack of State Penetration	112
Lack of a Monopoly of Force	120
Terrorist Presence	120
Criminal Networks and Shadow Economy	124
Lack of Effective Border Control	127
External Interference	130
Assessment of Ungovernability	132
Attributes of the Arabian Peninsula Conducive to the Presence of 
Terrorist Groups	133
Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access	134
Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics	136
Vulnerable Populations and Supportive Social Norms	136
Exploitable Ethno-Religious Cleavages	138
Criminal Syndicates	139
Invisibility	140
Assessment of Conduciveness to Terrorism	141
U.S. Policies and Programs	141
U.S. Global Defense Posture Implications for Arabian Peninsula
	142
Partner Country Capabilities Deficiencies	144
Democracy and Reform Programs: The Middle East Partnership 
Initiative	147
Policy Implications and Conclusions	148
8. CASE STUDY: THE SULAWESI-MINDANAO ARC	150
The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc as a JI Logistical and Transportation Hub
	154
Lack of State Penetration	157
Central Sulawesi	157
Muslim Mindanao	158
Lack of Physical Infrastructure	161
Central Sulawesi	161
Muslim Mindanao	163
Corruption and Prevalence of Informal Economy	164
Social and Cultural Resistance	167
Central Sulawesi	167
Muslim Mindanao	168
Lack of a Monopoly of Force	171
Central Sulawesi	171
Muslim Mindanao	173
Compromised Sovereignty/Lack of Effective Border Control	179
Mitigating Factors	180
Assessment: The Sulawesi-Mindanao ARC as an Ungoverned Territory
	181
Attributes of the Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc Conducive to the Presence 
of Terrorist and Insurgent Groups	181
Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access	182
Sources of Income	183
Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics	186
Invisibility	187
Assessment of the Conduciveness of the Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc to a 
Terrorist Presence	188
U.S. Policies and Programs	188
Deficiencies in Partner Country Capabilities	192
Policy Implications and Recommendations	194
9. CASE STUDY: THE EAST AFRICA CORRIDOR	197
Lack of State Penetration of Society	199
Lack of a Monopoly of Force	206
Organized Armed Groups	206
Criminal Networks	208
Population with Access to Arms	210
Lack of Border Controls	212
Adequacy of Infrastructure	215
Financial Infrastructure	215
Transportation and Communications	216
Operational Access	218
Sources of Income	219
Favorable Demographic and Social Characteristics	222
Invisibility	225
Summary of East Africa's Conduciveness to Terrorism	228
U.S. and Western Policies and Programs	229
Is East Africa an Attractive Prospect for Terrorists?	232
Deficiencies in Partner Country Capabilities	232
Policy Implicatons and Recommendations	233
10. CASE STUDY: WEST AFRICA	236
Introduction	236
Overview of West Africa	237
West Africa as an Ungoverned Territory	240
Lack of State Penetration of Society	242
Adequacy of Infrastructure	245
Effects of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in West Africa	249
Formal and Informal Economies	252
Social and Cultural Resistance	256
Lack of Monopoly of Force	258
Lack of Border Controls	261
External Interference	262
Conduciveness to Terrorist Presence	266
Adequacy of Infrastructure	266
Sources of Income	267
Favorable Demographics	267
Invisibility	270
Summary of West Africa's Conduciveness to Terrorism	271
U.S. Policies and programs	272
U.S. Global Defense Posture Implications for West Africa	272
Partner Country Capabilities Deficiencies	275
Democracy Programs	278
Policy Implications and Conclusions	279
11. CASE STUDY: THE NORTH CAUCASUS	281
Introduction	281
Overview of the North Caucasus Region	282
The North Caucasus as an Ungoverned Territory	285
Physical Infrastructure	293
Prevalence of the Informal or Shadow Economy	299
Social and Cultural Resistance to State Penetration	302
Lack of a Monopoly of Force	307
Presence of Organized Armed Groups	307
Presence of Organized Crime Networks	312
Population with Access to Weapons	313
Lack of Border Controls	314
External Interference	314
Assessment of Ungovernability	316
Conduciveness to Terrorist Presence	318
Adequacy of Infrastructure	318
Operational Access	319
Favorable Demographic and Social Factors	320
Populations Vulnerable to Cooptation and Intimidation	322
Invisibility	322
Assessment of Conduciveness to Terrorism	323
Trends in the North Caucasus and Implications for U.S. Interests
	323
Russia's Weakening Hold	324
Russia's Security Sector Reform Relative to the North Caucasus
	326
Opportunities for Productive U.S.-Russian Relations	327
U.S. Assistance to the Region	328
Implications of U.S. Global Defense Posture	330
12. CASE STUDY: THE COLOMBIAN-VENEZUELAN BORDER	331
Introduction	331
The Colombian-Venezuelan Border as an Ungoverned Territory	334
Lack of State Penetration	335
Lack of Physical Infrastructure	341
Social and Cultural Resistance	344
Lack of Monopoly of Force	345
Organized Armed Groups	345
Criminal Networks	349
Population with Access to Arms	351
Lack of Border Controls	352
External Interference	354
Mitigating Factors	357
Attributes of the Colombian-Venezuelan Border Conducive to the 
Presence of Insurgent Groups	360
Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access	361
Income-Producing Activities	362
The Drug Trade	362
Other Sources of Income	365
Favorable Demographics	366
Supportive Social Norms	366
Presence of Foreign Extremist Groups	367
Invisibility	368
U.S. Policy and Programs	369
Policy Implications and Recommendations	372
Recommendations for the U.S. Government	372
Recommendations for the Defense Department and the U.S. Air Force
	376
13. CASE STUDY: THE GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS BORDER	379
Introduction	379
The Guatemala-Chiapas Border as an Ungoverned Territory	383
Lack of State Penetration	384
Absence of State Institutions	384
Lack of Physical Infrastructure	387
Social and Cultural Resistance	388
Lack of Monopoly of Force	391
Organized Armed Groups and Criminal Networks	391
Population with Access to Arms	397
Lack of Effective Border Control	398
External Interference	399
Mitigating Factors	400
Attributes of the Guatemalan-Mexican Border Conducive to the 
Presence of Terrorist Groups	403
Adequacy of Infrastructure and Operational Access	404
Sources of Income	406
Favorable Demographics	408
Supportive Social Norms	408
The Maras as Extremists	409
Invisibility	410
U.S. Policy Toward the Region	411
Policy Implications and Recommendations	413
Recommendations For the U.S. Government	414
Recommendations for the Defense Department and the U.S. Air Force: 
Controlling "Ungoverned Airspaces."	417
Annex A: Assessment of Ungovernability and Conduciveness Values for 
Ungoverned Territories	420
Bibliography	431
Books and Reports	431
Government, Non-Government and Other Official Reports	438
Web-Based Resources	440
Articles	442
 
FIGURES
Figure 5.1; DoD Security Cooperation Planning Process	55
Figure 5.2; Impact of Ungovernability on USAF Title Ten 
Responsibilities	61
Figure 7.1; Arabian Peninsula and Vicinity	107
Figure 7.2; The Arabian Peninsula Population	112
Figure 7.3; The Arabian Peninsula-Infrastructure	114
Figure 7.4; Southern Borders of Saudi Arabia	128
Figure 7.5; Eastern Borders of Saudi Arabia	129
Figure 8.1; The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc-Political	150
Figure 8.2; The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc-Population	162
Figure 8.3; The Sulawesi-Mindanao Arc-Infrastructure	163
Figure 10.1; West Africa	237
Figure 10.2; West Africa Population	239
Figure 10.3; West Africa Population (1000s)	241
Figure 10.4; West Africa Infrastructure	246
Figure 10.5; Road and Rail Networks in West Africa (1992-2002)
	246
Figure 10.6; Main-line Telephony in West Africa	248
Figure 10.7; Mobile (Phone) Users in West Africa	249
Figure 10.8; West African HIV-AIDS Infection-rates (compared to 
other African countries)	251
Figure 11.1; Ethnic Breakdown of the North Caucasus	282
Figure 11.2; Northern Caucasus Population	293
Figure 11.3; Northern Caucasus Infrastructure	294
Figure 11.4; Smuggling Routes in the Caucasus.	300
Figure 12.1; Colombian-Venezuelan Border Region	336
Figure 12.2; Colombian-Venezuelan Border - Population	343
Figure 12.3; Colombian-Venezuelan Border / Roads	344
Figure 12.4; Illegal Armed Group Presence on Colombian-Venezuelan 
Border	348
Figure 13.1; Guatemalan-Mexican Border Area.	380
Figure 13.2; Massacres Per 10,000 Inhabitants	382
Figure 13.3; Linguistic Communities in Guatemala and Social 
Exclusion	389
 
	TABLES	
Table S.1 Indicators of Ungovernability	xix
Table S.2 Indicators of Conduciveness to a Terrorist Presence
	xix
Table 1.1 Case Selection Criteria	6
Table 2.1 Spatial Sources of Income for Terrorist Groups	22
Table 6.1 Indicators of Ungovernability; Pakistani-Afghan Border
	83
Table 6.2 National Telecommunication Region (NTR) Capacity in NWFP
	87
Table 6.3 Telephone Capacity in Baluchistan	87
Table 6.4 Conduciveness of the Afghan-Pakistan Border Region to a 
Terrorist Presence	96
Table 7.1 Arabian Peninsula Work Force 2002	110
Table 7.2 Arabian Peninsula Summary; Indicators of Ungovernability
	133
Table 7.3 Arabian Peninsula Summary; Indicators of Conduciveness to 
Terrorism	141
Table 8.1 Comparative Poverty Rates in the Philippines and the ARMM
	160
Table 8.2 Migration to Central Sulawesi, 1980-2000	168
Table 8.3 Sulawesi-Mindanao; Indicators of Ungovernability	181
Table 8.4 Sulawesi-Mindanao; Conduciveness to Terrorist Operations
	188
Table 8.5 U.S. Security Assistance to the Philippines, FY01-FY06
	189
Table 9.1 East Africa Summary of Indicators of Ungovernability
	215
Table 9.2 East Africa Summary of Indicators of Conduciveness to 
Terrorism	229
Table 10.1 Population Densities in West Africa	238
Table 10.2 Summary of Indicators of Ungovernability West Africa
	265
Table 10.3 Muslim Populations of West Africa	269
Table 10.4 Summary of Indicators of Conduciveness to a Terrorist 
Presence West Africa	272
Table 11.1 1999 Duma Election	286
Table 11.2 Distribution of Direct Federal Expenditures among the 
Regions in 1998	287
Table 11.3 Crimes recorded by the police per 100,000 of population
	289
Table 11.4 Crimes Recorded by the Police, Committed in 2003 (by 
type)	290
Table 11.5 Number of Registered Homicides and Attempted Murders
	291
Table 11.6 North Caucasus Ethnic Breakdown by Region	292
Table 11.7 Paved Roads and Railways in the North Caucasus	294
Table 11.8 Kilometers of Railways, 2000	295
Table 11.9 Passenger Transport by Public Bus	297
Table 11.10 Passenger Transport by Public Railway	297
Table 11.11 Number of Cellular, Data Transmission and Telematic 
Communication Service Subscribers	298
Table 11.12 Armed Groups in North Caucasus	308
Table 11.13 Indicators of Ungovernability: North Caucasus	318
Table 11.14 Indicators of Conduciveness / North Caucasus	323
Table 12.1 Colombia-Venezuela Border Summary: Indicators of 
Ungovernability	335
Table 12.2 Illegal Armed Groups Operations in Border Region	349
Table 12.3 Crime and Drug Trade Statistics in Colombian Border 
Region (2003)	350
Table 12.4 Insurgent Groups Areas of Operations in Venezuela	356
Table 12.5 Colombian-Venezuelan Indicators of Conduciveness	361
Table 12.6 U.S. Aid to Colombia	370
Table 13.1 Guatemala-Mexico Border Summary: Ungovernability	384
Table 13.2 Crime Statistics in Guatemala (2003)	387
Table 13.3 Guatemala-Mexico Border Summary Conduciveness to 
Terrorism	404
Table 13.4 U.S. Aid to Guatemala	413
Table A.1 Summary of Indicators of Ungovernability	422
Table A.2 Summary of Indicators of Conduciveness to 
Terrorist/Insurgent Presence	423
Table A.3 Indicators of Ungovernability-Arabian Peninsula	424
Table A.4 Indicators of Conduciveness to Terrorism-Arabian 
Peninsula	424
Table A.5 Indicators of Ungovernability-East Africa	425
Table A.6 Indicators of Conduciveness-East Africa	425
Table A.7 Indicators of Ungovernability-West Africa	426
Table A.8 Indicators of Conduciveness-West Africa	427

Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:

Terrorism -- Prevention -- Case studies.
Political stability -- Case studies.
Security, International.