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CONTENTS Preface iii Points of Contact Information iii RAND Project AIR FORCE iii Summary vii Strategies vii Political Policies ix Security Policies x Economic Policies xii If Violence Declines xii If Violence Fails to Decline xiii Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 The Problem of Iraq 1 The Situation Today 2 2. DEFINING AND ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR IRAQ 13 Employ Overwhelming Force 13 Pick, and Back, Winners 17 Partition 18 Leave 20 Maintain Current Efforts 22 From Strategy to Policy 23 3. POLITICAL SUASION 25 Maintain a National Unity Government 25 Engaging Iraq's Neighbors 30 4. SECURITY: TARGETING AID AND INFLUENCE 35 Controlling the Ministry of Interior 35 Improve Policing 41 Police Organization and Recruiting 44 Law and Order 45 Reduce Financial Flows to Militias and Other Illegal Groups 46 Coalition Force Employment 49 balance Baghdad and the rest of iraq 50 Public Information 51 5. HOW ECONOMIC POLICIES CAN HELP 53 Liberalize Refined Oil Product Prices 53 Improve the Operations of the Oil Ministry 55 Concentrate U.S. Grant Aid on the Security Sector and Improving Iraqi Government Operations 59 Follow Clear and hold Operations with Local Projects, not Makework Jobs Programs 59 Give the Iraqi Government Credit 62 6. POLICY PRIORITIES IF; AND ONLY IF; VIOLENCE DECLINES 63 Politics and Security 63 Economic Policies 68 7. NEXT STEPS IF VIOLENCE FAILS TO DECLINE 72 When Is It Time to Go Home? 72 How Should We Leave? 72 What Would Be the Repercussions of Withdrawal? 74 What Could the United States Do to Mitigate the Repercussions of Withdrawal? 75 Bibliography 80
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Iraq War, 2003-.
United States -- Politics and government -- 2001-.
Iraq -- Politics and government -- 2003-.
Internal security -- Iraq.
Iraq -- Economic conditions -- 21st century.