Table of contents for Sustaining and sharing economic growth in Tanzania / Robert J. Utz.

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Table of Contents
	Acknowledgments	xv
	Summary	xix
	Acronyms and Abbreviations	xxxiii
Part 1	Poverty Reduction and Growth: 
Recent Performance and Prospects	1
Chapter 1	A Decade of Reforms, Macroeconomic Stability, and Economic Growth	3
	Economic Growth Since 1990	3
Improved Macroeconomic Fundamentals	8
Determinants of Economic Growth in Tanzania	14
Conclusions	20
Notes	21
Chapter 2	The Challenge of Reducing Poverty in Tanzania	23
	Monetary Poverty: Levels and Changes	23
Economic Inequality, Poverty, and Growth	25
Nonmonetary Poverty Measures	31
Economic Characteristics of the Poor	32
Explaining Household Consumption	40
Conclusions	41
Notes	43
Chapter 3	Spatial Dimensions of Growth and Poverty Reduction	45
	Overall Regional Income Patterns	46
Implications for Regional Policy	54
Notes	55
Chapter 4	Outlook on Growth and Poverty Reduction	57
	Growth Scenarios	58
Review of Tanzania¿s Growth Prospects in Historical and 
 International Contexts	59
Policy-Based Projections	60
Input-Based Projections	61
Sectoral Projections	65
Reaching the MDG and NSGRP Targets	66
Conclusions	74
Notes	75
Part 2	Sectoral Perspectives on Growth	77
Chapter 5	Agricultural Productivity and Shared Growth	79
	Removing Constraints on Agricultural Growth	87
Public Expenditures to Support Agricultural Growth	110
Notes	121
Chapter 6	Fostering Growth, Export Competitiveness, and Employment 
in Tanzania¿s Manufacturing Sector	123
	Background	123
Determinants of Manufacturing Sector Growth	125
Enhancing the Export Performance of the Manufacturing Sector	132
Conclusions and Recommendations for a Manufacturing Sector
 Growth Strategy	135
Chapter 7	Tourism in Tanzania	139
	Economic Contribution of Tourism	140
The Tanzanian Tourism Industry Compared with That of Other
 Countries	143
Growth Potential	145
Recommendations	147
Notes	148
Chapter 8	The Informal Economy in Tanzania	149
	Constraints to Growth of Enterprises in the Informal Sector and 
 Formalization	152
Benefits of Increasing Formalization	155
Implications for Policy	156
Notes	158
Part 3	Elements of a Strategy for Shared Growth	159
Chapter 9	Fostering Innovation, Productivity, and Technological 
Change: Drivers of Innovation, Productivity, and 
Technological Change	161
	Education	162
Innovation	171
Information and Communication Technologies	177
Summary of Issues and Recommendations	181
Notes	183
Chapter 10	Enhancing the Business Environment	185
	Scaling Up Access to Infrastructure	187
Policy Recommendations for Scaling Up Investment 
 in Infrastructure	193
Scaling Up Access to Capital and Finance 	195
Enhancing the Public-Private Interface	200
Notes	215
Chapter 11	Harnessing Natural Resources for Sustainable Growth: 
The Contribution of Natural Resources to Growth	217
	Public Investment in Natural Resource¿Based Growth	220
Untapped Growth Potential	221
Potential for Local Spinoff Effects	222
Potential for Poverty Reduction	223
Sustainability of Growth	225
Externalities	227
Recommendations	228
Chapter 12	Enhancing the Capacity of the Poor to Participate in Growth	231
	Improving Human Capital of the Poor	231
Building Physical Capital of the Poor	248
Dealing with Vulnerability	255
Conclusions	259
Notes	260
Part 4	Managing Policies and Expenditures 
for Shared Growth	261
Chapter 13	Scaling Up Public Expenditure: National Strategy for Growth 
and Reduction in Poverty and Millennium Development Goal Financing Requirements	263
	Domestic Resources	265
Scaling Up Foreign Aid	266
Debt Sustainability	269
Reducing Aid Dependency	271
Conclusions	272
Notes	272
Chapter 14	Coordination of Economic Policy Formulation and 
Implementation in Tanzania	273
	Review of Institutions for Economic Policy	274
Challenges	276
Implementation of the Growth Agenda of the NSGRP	280
Note	281
References		
List of Background Studies	
Boxes
	1.1	Overview of Structural Reforms in Tanzania	4
	1.2	Government Spending and Economic Growth	19
	2.1	Is Tanzania¿s Poverty Line Too Low?	24
	3.1	Regional Differences in Coping with External Shocks	48
	5.1	Organization of the Marketing Chain for Oranges and Onions	109
	8.1	Examples of Voluntary Formalization	156
	9.1	Benchmarking Tanzania in the Global Context	162
	9.2	The United Nations Development Programme¿s Technology 
 Achievement Index	173
	9.3	Constraints to Technology Access in the Horticulture Sector 
 in Tanzania	175
	10.1	Aspects of Governance	201
	12.1	Gender Differences in Education	235
	12.2	Marketing Opportunities and Crop Adoption	250
	12.3	Positive Consequences of a Shock	252
	12.4	A Poverty Trap in Shinyanga	256
	12.5	Analysis Helps Clarify Whom to Target	258
	14.1	Governance Arrangements to Strengthen the Effectiveness 
 of Growth-Enhancing Interventions	278
Figures
	1.1	Annual Growth of Real GDP at Factor Cost, 1960¿2005	4
	1.2	Merchandise Exports: Traditional and Nontraditional, 1990¿2004	9
	1.3	Government Finance, 1991/92¿2004/05	10
	1.4	Money and Inflation, 1990¿2004	10
	1.5	Domestic Credit and Interest Rates	11
	1.6	Capital Formation, 1995¿2005	12
	1.7	Saving and Investment, 1990¿2005	13
	1.8	Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments, 1990¿2004	13
	1.9	Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt and Debt Service, 
 1990¿2004	14
	1.10	Decomposition of Economic Growth per Worker into Contribution 
 of Human and Physical Capital Accumulation and Total Factor 
 Productivity (TFP), 1985¿2005	16
	1.11	Growth Rates of GDP, Inclusive and Exclusive of Government 
 Spending, 1990¿2005	19
	1.12	Contribution of Public and Private Expenditure to Economic 
 Growth, 1990¿2005	20
	2.1	Simulated Changes in Poverty, 1992¿2002	26
	2.2	Growth Incidence Curve: Nation as a Whole	28
	3.1	Average GDP by Region, 1996¿99 and 2000¿03	47
	3.2	Average Maize and Paddy Yield per Hectare, 
Fiscal Years 1995¿2001	51
	3.3	Interregional Output Disparities in Tanzania, 1980¿2003	54
	4.1	Average Annual Per Capita GDP Growth for Five-Year Periods, 
 1961¿2005	58
	4.2	Projections of GDP Per Capita and Poverty, 2003¿25	59
	4.3	Average Per Capita Real GDP Growth in 185 Countries, 
1994¿2003	60
	4.4	Average Years of Schooling in Seven African Countries, 
 1960¿2000	62
	4.5	Contribution of Capital Accumulation to Growth, 2005¿25	63
	4.6	Projected Reduction in Consumption Poverty in Tanzania, 2001¿15	68
	4.7	Projected Reduction in Consumption Poverty in Tanzania 
 under Alternative Compositions of Growth, 2001¿15	69
	4.8	Projected Reduction in Malnutrition (Underweight) in Tanzania, 
 2004¿15	71
	5.1	Average Annual Agricultural Growth, 1990¿2003	80
	5.2	Labor Productivity Levels in Tanzania and Comparators, 
 1990¿2002	81
	5.3	Labor Productivity Trends in Tanzania and Region, 1990¿2003	82
	5.4	Producer and Intermediary Returns as a Percentage 
 of the Border Price	100
	5.5	Cost Components of Marketing Margins	101
	5.6	Cost Components of Producer Margins	102
	6.1	Growth of Manufacturing Sector Output and Exports	124
	7.1	Tourism Receipts in Tanzania, 1991¿2005	140
	7.2	Total Visitor Arrivals in Kenya and Tanzania, 1996¿2004	143
	7.3	World Travel and Tourism Council Competitiveness Index, 
 2004	144
	8.1	Size of the Informal Economy for Selected Countries, 
 as a Percentage of Gross National Income	150
	8.2	Estimated Unreported Revenue for Tax Purposes	154
	8.3	Median Value Added per Worker	155
	9.1	Adult Literacy Rates, 1970¿2002	164
	9.2	Average Years of Schooling, 1960¿2000	165
	9.3	Reading Scores and Mathematics Scores	167
	9.4	Predicted Earnings in Manufacturing Sector Based 
 on Manufacturing Firm Surveys	168
	9.5	Marginal Social Returns per Year of Education Based 
 on Integrated Labor Force Survey	169
	9.6	Projected Shortfall of Health Care Workers in Tanzania	171
	9.7	ICT Infrastructure: Telephones, Personal Computers, and Internet	179
	10.1	Cost of Inefficiencies in the Business Environment as a Percentage
 of Sales, Various Countries	186
	10.2	Cost Structure of Firms by Average Percentage of Total Costs	186
	10.3	Percentage of Enterprises Rating Problems as Major or Very 
 Severe Constraints on Enterprise Operations and Growth 
 in Tanzania, 2003	187
	10.4	Effect of Low Levels of Infrastructure on Economic Growth	188
	10.5	Proportion of Rural Population Living within Two Kilometers 
 of an All-Season Road	190
	10.6	Real Interest Rates for T-Bills, Lending, and Saving, 1993¿2005	198
	10.7	Governance Indicators for Tanzania, 1996¿2005	202
	10.8	Informality in Tanzania and in Comparator Countries	204
	10.9	Percentage of Firms Inspected and Number of Inspections 
 per Year, by Government Agency	207
	10.10	Rating of Problems by Enterprises in Tanzania and in Comparator 
 Countries	210
	10.11	Enterprises Reporting That Bribes to the Government Affect Their 
 Businesses in Tanzania and Comparator Countries	212
	10.12	Requests for Bribes during Tax Inspections	214
	10.13	Interaction with Institutions That Demand Bribes: Micro 
 Enterprises versus Small, Medium, and Large Enterprises	215
	11.1	Annual License Revenue and Number of Foreign Vessels 
 in EEZ, 1998¿2004	222
	11.2	Income to Ololosokwan Village, Ngorongoro District Council, 
 1999¿2003	223
	11.3	Village Incomes from Hunting in Lunda-Mkwambi (Game-
 Controlled Area), Idodi, and Pawaga Divisions, 1996¿99	224
	12.1	Primary Education Performance, 1995¿2004	233
	12.2	Changes in the Distribution of Access to Education in Rural 
 Kilimanjaro, 2001 and 2003	234
	12.3	Enrollment in Secondary Schools, 1990¿2004	236
	12.4	Percentage of Undernourished Children under Age Five, 
 1991¿2004	237
	12.5	Fraction Stunted by Region (1992¿99) and Under-Five Mortality 
 Rate per 1,000 Live Births (2002)	238
	12.6	Current Height of Children by Stunting Status 10 Years Ago 
 in Kagera	239
	12.7	Nutritional Status of Children by Age, 1999	240
	12.8	Effect of Community Interventions on Average Nutrition Scores 
 in Kagera	241
	12.9	Infant Mortality, 1988 and 2002	242
	12.10	Concentration Curves for Different Health Care Consultations	244
	12.11	Birth per Woman Age 15¿49, by Wealth Quintile	247
	12.12	Fraction of People Working as Own-Account Laborers 
 in Agriculture	249
	12.13	Disability and Orphanhood Relative to Primary School 
 Attendance	257
	13.1	Effective Exchange Rates, 1990¿2004	267
	13.2	Exports of Manufactures as a Percentage of GDP and Exports 
 of Goods and Services, 1990¿2002	268
	13.3	Multilateral Credit Disbursements and Debt Sustainability: 
 Net Present Value of Debt-to-Export Ratio, 2006¿26	270
Tables
	1.1	Real GDP Growth Rates, 1988¿2003	6
	1.2	Sources of Growth and Production, 1990¿2005	7
	1.3	Structural Change of the Tanzanian Economy, 1990¿2005	8
	1.4	Decomposition of Tanzania¿s Growth, 1995¿2005: Depreciation 
 of Initial Capital Stock by 0, 25, and 50 Percent	15
	1.5	Sources of Growth by Region, 1990¿2000	17
	1.6	Sources of Growth: Expenditure, 1990¿2005	18
	2.1	Poverty Indices, 1991/92¿2000/01	24
	2.2	Poverty Status in Tanzania, 1991/92¿2000/01	25
	2.3	Distribution of the Population by Strata by National Quintile, 
 1991/92¿2000/01	27
	2.4	Increase in Consumer Prices between 1991 and 2001	27
	2.5	Gini Coefficient and Theil Index, 1991/92¿2000/01	28
	2.6	Share of Inequality Created by Between-Group Differences 
 in Tanzania, 1991/92¿2000/01	29
	2.7	Decomposition of Change in Poverty in Tanzania, 1991/92¿2000/01	30
	2.8	Food Share by Strata and Poverty Status, 1991/92¿2001/01	31
	2.9	Households¿ Perceptions of Problems with Satisfying Food 
 Needs in Relation to Actual Poverty Status, 2000/01	32
	2.10	Household Asset Holdings by Quintiles in Tanzania, 
 1991/92¿2000/01	33
	2.11	Housing Quality in Tanzania, 1991/92¿2000/01	34
	2.12	Poverty by Number of Children Age Five or Younger, 
1991/92¿2001/01	35
	2.13	Poverty by Civil Status of Head of Household, 1991/92¿2001/01	35
	2.14	Level of Completed Schooling of Head of Household by Quintiles, 
 1991/92¿2001/01	36
	2.15	Employment of Head of Household by Quintile and Strata 
 in Tanzania, 1991/92¿2000/01	36
	2.16	Changes in Average Consumption per Adult Equivalent by 
 Employment of Head of Household and by Strata, 1991/92 
 and 2000/01	37
	2.17	Average Consumption per Adult Equivalent by Employment 
 of Head of Household in Dar es Salaam, Other Urban Areas, 
 and Rural Areas, 1990/91¿2000/01	37
	2.18	Index Number of Average Consumption per Adult Equivalent 
 by Employment of Head of Household, 1991 Tanzania Basis	38
	2.19	Share of Labor Force by Employment Sector and by Gender, 
 1991/92¿2000/01	39
	2.20	Sector of Employment of Spouses Compared with That of Heads 
 of Household, 1991/92¿2000/01	39
	2.21	Main Type of Business by Quintiles, 1991/92¿2000/01	40
	2.22	Average Amount of Education of Head of Household, 
 1991/92¿2000/01	40
	2.23	Regression Results, Determinants of Consumption for Households, 
 and Coefficients in Levels (Regional Dummies Included), 
 1991/92¿2000/01	42
	3.1	Distribution of Industrial Establishments, Workers, and Value 
 Added, 2000 and 2004	49
	3.2	Regional Population Dynamics	52
	3.3	Selected Indices of Human Capital Development by Region	53
	4.1	Projections of Per Capita GNI and Share of Population 
 below Poverty Line, 2010¿25	59
	4.2	Policy-Based Growth Projections	61
	4.3	Effect of Additional Years of Schooling on Economic Growth	62
	4.4	Contribution of Investment to Growth: Average over 10 Years	63
	4.5	Growth and Total Factor Productivity in Selected East Asian 
 Countries, 1960¿94	64
	4.6	Overall Input-Based Projections	65
	4.7	Structural Transformation, Selected Countries, 1980¿98	65
	4.8	Scenarios for Economic Growth and Structural Transformation	66
	4.9	MDG Baseline, Most Recent Estimate, and Target	67
	4.10	Scenarios for Economic Growth	68
	4.11	Reduction in Malnutrition in Kagera	73
	5.1	Sectoral and Subsectoral Contributions to GDP Growth, 1995¿2003	80
	5.2	Labor Productivity Growth: Contributing Factors	84
	5.3	Contributions of Subsectors to 5.3 Percent Growth in Agricultural 
 Gross Value of Production, 1995/96¿2002/03	84
	5.4	Land Use and Potential for Agricultural Land Expansion, 
 Mid-1990s	88
	5.5	Inventory of Technologies Coming Out of the Research System 
 in the 1990s	92
	5.6	Institutional Framework for Sustainable Development 
 of Smallholder Irrigation Systems	97
	5.7	Proposed Growth in Development Expenditures for ASDP, 
 2002/03	114
	5.8	2005/06 Budget Proposals	115
	5.9	Budget Ceilings for Rural Development and Agriculture in Line 
 Ministries, 2005/06	116
	7.1	Key Tourism Statistics, 1991¿2005	141
	7.2	Hotel Occupancy Rate	144
	7.3	Perception of Infrastructure Services	145
	7.4	Obstacles Encountered in the Business Environment	146
	7.5	Electricity Provision Indicators	148
	8.1	Typology of Forms of Enterprise in Tanzania	150
	9.1	Role of the Public Sector in Fostering Innovation	172
	9.2	ICT Indicators for Tanzania and Comparators	180
	10.1	Road Network, February 2004	190
	10.2	Financial Variables as a Percentage of GDP, 1997¿2005	197
	10.3	Commercial Bank Lending to Some Sectors, 1997¿2005	198
	10.4	Doing Business Indicators	205
	10.5	Percentage of Firms Inspected and Median Number 
of Inspections, by Sector	208
	10.6	Likelihood of Reporting That Bribes Were Needed to Get 
 Things Done, by Size of Enterprise	213
	11.1	Ministry of Natural Revenues and Tourism Annual Revenue, 
 2002/03 and 2003/04	219
	11.2	Budget of Ministry of Natural Revenues and Tourism, 
 as Distributed by Subsector, 2002/03¿2003/04	220
	12.1	Increase in Per Capita Consumption Relative to Households 
 Headed by Individuals with No Education	232
	12.2	Benefit-Cost Ratios of Nutrition Interventions	239
	12.3	Number of Days of School or Work Missed Because of Illness, 
 by Consumption Quintile	242
	12.4	Distance to Health Facilities, 1991 and 2000	243
	12.5	Differences in Health Outcomes, by Quintile	244
	12.6	Access to Preventive Health Services, by Quintile	245
	12.7	Socioeconomic Aspects of Health, by Quintile	245
	12.8	Ordinary Least Squares Regression of Education Gap 
 of Children Age 8¿11	247
	12.9	Consumption Transition Matrix in Kagera, 1994 and 2004	250
	12.10	Shocks with Major Consequences for Well-Being in Kagera, 
 by Quintile 1994¿2004	252
	12.11	Five Main Causes of Mortality by Age Group	253
	12.12	Access to Savings Services in Rural Areas, 1991 and 2000	254
	13.1	Per Capita MDG Investment Needs and Financing Sources, 
 2006¿15	264
	13.2	Potential Contribution of Domestic Revenue to Finance MDGs, 
 2006¿25	265
		

Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:

Tanzania -- Economic policy.
Poverty -- Tanzania.