Table of contents for Misfortunes of war : press and public reactions to civilian deaths in wartime / Eric V. Larson, Bogdan Savych.

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Contents
Preface		iii
Figures		vii
Tables		xi
Summary	xv
Acknowledgments	xxi
Glossary	xxiii
1. Introduction	1
Literature Review	4
Approach	13
Organization of This Report	15
2. Operation Desert Storm (Iraq, 1991)	17
Civilian Casualty Estimates	17
Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue	19
The Arc of Media and Public Concern	21
The Al Firdos Bunker Incident	36
Key Lessons	50
3. Operation Allied Force (Kosovo, 1999)	53
Civilian Casualty Estimates	54
Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue	60
The Arc of Media and Public Concern	65
The 14 April Convoy Attacks Outside Djakovica	81
The 7 May Chinese Embassy Bombing	94
Section Conclusions	106
4. Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan, 2001/)	110
Civilian Casualty Estimates	110
Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue	112
The Arc of Media and Public Concern	113
The Wedding Party Incident	131
Key Lessons	137
5.	Operation Iraqi Freedom (Iraq, 2003/)	139
Civilian Casualty Estimates	139
Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue	141
The Arc of Media and Public Concern	142
The Marketplace Incident	168
Key Lessons	179
6. Implications and Conclusions	181
The Military: A Highly Credible Institution	184
Recommendations	189
A. Multivariate Statistical Modeling Results	191
Bibliography	205
 
Figures
	1.1.	U.S. Major Television & Newspaper Reporting on Civilian 
Casualties, 1990-2003	2
	1.2.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, 
1990-2003	2
	2.1.	Monthly Major Television and Newspaper Reporting on 
Iraq, August 1990-June 1991	22
	2.2.	Major U.S. Television and Newspaper Weekly Reporting 
on Iraq During the Gulf War	22
	2.3.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Iraq, August 1990-
June 1991	31
	2.4.	Selected Foreign Media Weekly Reporting on Iraq, 
January-February 1991	31
	2.5.	Europeans' Approval of the Decision to use Military Force 
Against Iraq, March 1991	33
	2.6.	Post-Incident Timeline for Al Firdos Incident	37
	2.7.	U.S. Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties in Iraq During 
the Gulf War	40
	2.8.	Key Terms and Phrases Used During the Gulf War	41
	2.9.	Confidence That Al Firdos Bunker Was a Legitimate 
Military Target	46
	2.10.	Views on Whether U.S. Was Making Enough Effort to 
Avoid Bombing Civilian Areas Before and After Al Firdos Incident
	46
	2.11.	Selected Foreign Reporting on Civilian Casualties, 
February 7-21, 1991	50
	3.1.	Serb Television Image of Bridge at Novi Sad, April 22, 
1999	63
	3.2.	Serbian Protester (Serbian TV)	64
	3.3.	Major News Reporting on Kosovo, January-July 1999
	65
	3.4.	Number of Television News Stories by War Topic	66
	3.5.	CNN Daily Reporting on Civilian Casualties and Collateral 
Damage	66
	3.6.	How Closely Was Public Following Kosovo?	68
	3.7.	Concern About Various Costs in Kosovo, March 1999-May 
1999	70
	3.8.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Kosovo, 1/99-12/99
	75
	3.9.	Polling on Kosovo by ICM for The Guardian Newspaper, 
March-April 1999	79
	3.10. 	French Support for Participation in NATO Intervention, 
Late March-Mid-May	80
	3.11.	Post-Incident Timeline for Djakovica Convoy Incident
	82
	3.12.	U.S. Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Convoy Incident
	87
	3.13.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, 
Convoy Incident	93
	3.14.	Post-Incident Timeline for Chinese Embassy Incident
	95
	3.15.	Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Chinese Embassy 
Incident	97
	3.16.	Reporting on Chinese Embassy Incident in 53 Major 
Newspapers	97
	3.17.	Focus of News Reports Before and After Chinese Embassy 
Incident	99
	3.18.	Evaluations of U.S. Policy Before and After Chinese 
Embassy Incident	100
	3.19.	Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Chinese 
Embassy Incident	104
	4.1.	Major U.S. Newspaper and Television Reporting on 
Afghanistan, 8/01-3/04	113
	4.2.	Major U.S. Newspaper Reporting on Afghanistan and 
Civilian Casualties, 8/01-3/04	114
	4.3.	Americans' Attention to Afghanistan, 10/01-7/02	115
	4.4.	Support for Military Action in Afghanistan Even If Civilian 
Casualties, Mid-September 2001	116
	4.5.	Support for Military Action in Afghanistan Even if Civilian 
Casualties, Late September 2001	117
	4.6.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Afghanistan, 8/01-
3/04	123
	4.7.	Should U.S. Attack Military and Civilian Targets? Mid-
September 2001	124
	4.8.	Support for U.S. Military Action, mid-September 2001
	125
	4.9.	Approval of Own Country's Military Participating in U.S. 
Military Action, September 2001	126
	4.10.	Support for U.S. Air War in Afghanistan in 20 Countries, 
November-December 2001	127
	4.11.	Rating of Bush Administration Handling of War in 
Afghanistan in the U.S. and Six European Countries, June-July 2002
	128
	4.12.	Support for US-Led War on Terrorism in 43 Countries, 
July-October 2002	129
	4.13.	Post-Incident Timeline for Wedding Party Incident	132
	4.14.	Reporting on Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan in Major 
Papers and CNN	134
	4.15.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties in 
Afghanistan, Wedding Party Incident	137
	5.1.	U.S. Major Television and Major Reporting on Iraq, 8/02-
3/04	143
	5.2.	Weekly Major News Reporting on Iraq, March-June 2003
	144
	5.3.	Major U.S. Media Reporting on Iraq and Civilian 
Casualties, 8/02-3/04	145
	5.4.	Percentage of Television News Stories by Subject, March 
19-April 14, 2003	145
	5.5.	Attention to Iraq, August 2002 to March 2004	147
	5.6.	Adequacy of Press Attention to Civilian Casualties and 
Other Iraq Issues	148
	5.7.	Preferred Priority for Minimizing Civilian Casualties and 
Other Desiderata, Early April 2003	152
	5.8.	Belief War Would Be a Success Given Hypothesized 
Civilian Casualties, Early April 2003	161
	5.9.	Reporting on Antiwar Demonstrations in Major U.S. 
Media, 8/02-3/04	163
	5.10.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Iraq, 8/02-3/04
	164
	5.11.	Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Iraq, 8/02-3/04
	165
	5.12.	Mentions of Iraq and Civilian Casualties in Selected 
Foreign Media by Period	166
	5.13.	Post-Incident Timeline for March 26, 2003 Marketplace 
Incident	168
	5.14.	High Altitude Diagram Used by Maj. Gen McChrystal
	169
	5.15.	Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Marketplace Incident
	171
	5.16.	Foreign Reporting on Civilian Casualties in Iraq, 
Marketplace Incident	175
	5.17.	Belief in 20 Countries That U.S. Tried Very Hard to Avoid 
Civilian Casualties in Iraq, April-May 2003	177
	5.18.	Does The U.S. Do Enough to Avoid (Civilian) Casualties? 
Results From 11 Countries	177
	5.19.	Iraqi Beliefs About How Hard U.S. Is Trying to Avoid 
Casualties, Spring 2004	178
	6.1.	Annual Mentions of Civilian Casualties by Opinion 
Leaders, 1990-2003	181
	6.2.	 Major U.S. Media Reporting on War and Selected NGOs, 
1990-2003	182
	6.3.	Annual Mentions of Antiwar Demonstrations in U.S. Major 
Media Reporting, 1990-2003	183
	6.4.	Percent Saying They Have a "Great Deal" of Confidence in 
Military, 1971-2004	185
	6.5.	Americans' Confidence in Institutions, June 2003	186
 
Tables
	1.1.	Importance to Americans of Civilian Deaths in Using the 
American Military	3
	2.1.	How Closely Did Americans Follow Developments in the 
Gulf?	23
	2.2.	Approval for the Campaign by Expected Military and 
Civilian Casualties, February 15-17, 1991	26
	2.3.	Views on Avoiding Bombing Civilian Areas Before & 
After Al Firdos Incident	45
	2.4.	Approval & Disapproval of Going to War With Iraq Before 
& After Al Firdos Bombing	47
	2.5.	Views on Whether U.S. Forces Were Inflicting Excessive 
Damage, February 12-13, 1991	48
	2.6.	Approval for the War in Iraq, January-February 1991
	48
	3.1.	Published Estimates of Deaths in Kosovo, 1998-99	61
	3.2.	Comparison of Support for Air War and Ground Options
	69
	3.3.	Knowledge of/Estimates of Civilian Casualties in Kosovo
	71
	3.4.	Cross-Tabulation of the Approval for the Campaign in 
Kosovo and Beliefs about Effort of the US in Avoiding Civilian 
Casualties, April 1999	73
	3.5.	Cross-Tabulation of the Approval for the Campaign in 
Kosovo and Beliefs about Effort of the US in Avoiding Civilian 
Casualties, May 1999	74
	3.6.	U.S. and European Opinion on the War, March-April 1999
	76
	3.7.	Support for War in Kosovo in 16 Countries, March-April 
1999	76
	3.8.	Support for European Defense Independent of NATO, 
March-April 1999	77
	3.9.	European Support for the War In Kosovo in Early April
	78
	3.10.	European and U.S. Support for the War In Kosovo in Late 
April	78
	3.11.	Attention Paid to Kosovo Before and After April 14 
Convoy Incident	89
	3.12.	Approval of War Before and After the April 14 Incident
	89
	3.13.	Which Kosovo Pictures and Stories Most Caught 
Respondents' Attention? April 1999	90
	3.14.	Cross-Tabulation of Approval and Concern About Serb 
Civilians Being Hurt or Killed	91
	3.15.	Are We Being Careful Enough to Avoid Civilian 
Casualties?, by Party, 4/99	92
	3.16.	European and U.S. Support for the War In Kosovo in Late 
April 1999	94
	3.17.	Attention Paid to Kosovo Before and After May 7 Chinese 
Embassy Incident	100
	3.18.	Approval and Beliefs About Aggressiveness of War by 
Day, May 7-9, 1999	101
	3.19.	Approval of the War Before and After the May 8 Incident
	102
	3.20.	European Support for the War In Kosovo in mid-May 1999
	105
	3.21.	Americans' Concern about Civilian Casualties, April-May 
1999	107
	3.22.	Comparison of Beliefs About Coalition Efforts to Avoid 
Casualties, Post-Convoy Incident and Post-Chinese Embassy Incident
	108
	4.1.	Associated Press Estimate of Civilian Casualties, February 
2002	111
	4.2.	Judgments About Effectiveness of Military Strikes If 
Civilian Casualties	117
	4.3.	Approval of Military Action If Civilian Casualties Would 
Result	118
	4.4.	U.S. Doing All It Reasonably Can to Avoid Casualties?
	119
	4.5.	Greater Concern About Civilian Casualties or Achieving 
Victory?	120
	4.6.	Accuracy of Information Government Is Providing About 
Civilian Casualties	120
	4.7.	Approval of Military Action If Civilian Casualties Would 
Result	121
	4.8.	Number of Foreign Publics Polled, and Number Where 
Majority Supported U.S.	130
	4.9.	Differences In Support, November-December 2001 and 
July-October 2002 Polls	130
	4.10.	Attention Paid to Afghanistan Before and After July 1 
Incident	135
	4.11.	Approval Before and After the July 1 Wedding Party 
Incident	136
	5.1.	Assessment of Press Coverage of Civilian Casualties in 
Iraq, Early April 2003	148
	5.2.	Greatest Worries About War in Iraq, March 2003	149
	5.3.	Concern About Iraqi Civilians Being Killed, 1991 and 2003
	150
	5.4.	Concern About Iraqi Civilians Being Killed, 1991	150
	5.5.	Greatest Worries About U.S. Uses of Military Force, 
November 2001 and March 2003	151
	5.6.	Should U.S. Strike Targets Even in Civilian Areas in Iraq? 
March 2003	152
	5.7.	Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties 
in Iraq, March 2003	153
	5.8.	Willingness to Bomb Baghdad in Two Wars, 1991 and 
2003	154
	5.9.	Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties 
in Iraq, March 2003	155
	5.10.	Support for More Aggressive Action Even If Civilian 
Casualties in Iraq, August 2003	155
	5.11.	Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian 
Casualties, Late March-Early April	156
	5.12.	Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties 
in Iraq, March 2003	157
	5.13.	Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties 
in Iraq, Late March-Early April 2003	157
	5.14.	Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties 
in Iraq, Early April 2003	158
	5.15.	Civilian Casualties in Iraq and Expectations, Early April 
2003	158
	5.16.	Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties 
in Iraq, April to December 2003	159
	5.17.	War in Iraq Successful If Civilian Casualties? Early April 
2003	160
	5.18.	Approval Before and After March 26 Marketplace Incident
	172
	5.19.	Fatigue Before and After March 26 Marketplace Incident
	173
	5.20.	Confidence in U.S. Military and Press Before and After 
March 26 Marketplace Incident	174
	6.1.	Credibility Scores of Various Sources from National 
Credibility Index	188
	A.1.	Reduced Form Coefficients From Probit Estimates of 
Approval of Gulf War, February 15-17, 1991	194
	A.2.	Coefficients from the Probit Estimates (Reduced Form) for 
Beliefs about the Worth of the Campaign in Iraq, February 1991	195
	A.3.	Wording of question in LA Times, February 15-17, 1991.
	196
	A.4.	Coefficients From Probit Estimates for Approval (Q13) of 
Kosovo Campaign, May 1999	197
	A.5.	Wording of question in Pew research center May 1999 
News interest index.	198
	A.6.	Afghanistan: Marginal Probability from the Probit 
Estimates of Approval (Q2)	199
	A.7.	Wording of Questions in ABC News/WPost War Poll #2, 
November 27 2001	200
	A.8.	Coefficients from the Probit Estimates for Approval (Q3) 
of the Military Campaign in Iraq, March 2003	201
	A.9.	Wording of question in ABC/WP War poll # 1, Marsh 20, 
2003.	202
	A.10.	Coefficients From Probit Estimates for Support of the 
Military Campaign in Iraq, April 2003	203
	A.11.	Wording of Questions in ABC/Washington Post War poll # 
1, April 3, 2003	203

Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:

Civilian war casualties.
Mass media and war.
War in mass media.
United States. Air Force -- History -- 20th century.
United States. Air Force -- History -- 21st century.
United States. Air Force -- Public relations.
Combatants and noncombatants (International law).
Military history, Modern -- 20th century.
Military history, Modern -- 21st century.
War -- Moral and ethical aspects.