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Contents Preface iii Figures vii Tables xi Summary xv Acknowledgments xxi Glossary xxiii 1. Introduction 1 Literature Review 4 Approach 13 Organization of This Report 15 2. Operation Desert Storm (Iraq, 1991) 17 Civilian Casualty Estimates 17 Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue 19 The Arc of Media and Public Concern 21 The Al Firdos Bunker Incident 36 Key Lessons 50 3. Operation Allied Force (Kosovo, 1999) 53 Civilian Casualty Estimates 54 Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue 60 The Arc of Media and Public Concern 65 The 14 April Convoy Attacks Outside Djakovica 81 The 7 May Chinese Embassy Bombing 94 Section Conclusions 106 4. Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan, 2001/) 110 Civilian Casualty Estimates 110 Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue 112 The Arc of Media and Public Concern 113 The Wedding Party Incident 131 Key Lessons 137 5. Operation Iraqi Freedom (Iraq, 2003/) 139 Civilian Casualty Estimates 139 Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue 141 The Arc of Media and Public Concern 142 The Marketplace Incident 168 Key Lessons 179 6. Implications and Conclusions 181 The Military: A Highly Credible Institution 184 Recommendations 189 A. Multivariate Statistical Modeling Results 191 Bibliography 205 Figures 1.1. U.S. Major Television & Newspaper Reporting on Civilian Casualties, 1990-2003 2 1.2. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, 1990-2003 2 2.1. Monthly Major Television and Newspaper Reporting on Iraq, August 1990-June 1991 22 2.2. Major U.S. Television and Newspaper Weekly Reporting on Iraq During the Gulf War 22 2.3. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Iraq, August 1990- June 1991 31 2.4. Selected Foreign Media Weekly Reporting on Iraq, January-February 1991 31 2.5. Europeans' Approval of the Decision to use Military Force Against Iraq, March 1991 33 2.6. Post-Incident Timeline for Al Firdos Incident 37 2.7. U.S. Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties in Iraq During the Gulf War 40 2.8. Key Terms and Phrases Used During the Gulf War 41 2.9. Confidence That Al Firdos Bunker Was a Legitimate Military Target 46 2.10. Views on Whether U.S. Was Making Enough Effort to Avoid Bombing Civilian Areas Before and After Al Firdos Incident 46 2.11. Selected Foreign Reporting on Civilian Casualties, February 7-21, 1991 50 3.1. Serb Television Image of Bridge at Novi Sad, April 22, 1999 63 3.2. Serbian Protester (Serbian TV) 64 3.3. Major News Reporting on Kosovo, January-July 1999 65 3.4. Number of Television News Stories by War Topic 66 3.5. CNN Daily Reporting on Civilian Casualties and Collateral Damage 66 3.6. How Closely Was Public Following Kosovo? 68 3.7. Concern About Various Costs in Kosovo, March 1999-May 1999 70 3.8. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Kosovo, 1/99-12/99 75 3.9. Polling on Kosovo by ICM for The Guardian Newspaper, March-April 1999 79 3.10. French Support for Participation in NATO Intervention, Late March-Mid-May 80 3.11. Post-Incident Timeline for Djakovica Convoy Incident 82 3.12. U.S. Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Convoy Incident 87 3.13. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Convoy Incident 93 3.14. Post-Incident Timeline for Chinese Embassy Incident 95 3.15. Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Chinese Embassy Incident 97 3.16. Reporting on Chinese Embassy Incident in 53 Major Newspapers 97 3.17. Focus of News Reports Before and After Chinese Embassy Incident 99 3.18. Evaluations of U.S. Policy Before and After Chinese Embassy Incident 100 3.19. Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Chinese Embassy Incident 104 4.1. Major U.S. Newspaper and Television Reporting on Afghanistan, 8/01-3/04 113 4.2. Major U.S. Newspaper Reporting on Afghanistan and Civilian Casualties, 8/01-3/04 114 4.3. Americans' Attention to Afghanistan, 10/01-7/02 115 4.4. Support for Military Action in Afghanistan Even If Civilian Casualties, Mid-September 2001 116 4.5. Support for Military Action in Afghanistan Even if Civilian Casualties, Late September 2001 117 4.6. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Afghanistan, 8/01- 3/04 123 4.7. Should U.S. Attack Military and Civilian Targets? Mid- September 2001 124 4.8. Support for U.S. Military Action, mid-September 2001 125 4.9. Approval of Own Country's Military Participating in U.S. Military Action, September 2001 126 4.10. Support for U.S. Air War in Afghanistan in 20 Countries, November-December 2001 127 4.11. Rating of Bush Administration Handling of War in Afghanistan in the U.S. and Six European Countries, June-July 2002 128 4.12. Support for US-Led War on Terrorism in 43 Countries, July-October 2002 129 4.13. Post-Incident Timeline for Wedding Party Incident 132 4.14. Reporting on Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan in Major Papers and CNN 134 4.15. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan, Wedding Party Incident 137 5.1. U.S. Major Television and Major Reporting on Iraq, 8/02- 3/04 143 5.2. Weekly Major News Reporting on Iraq, March-June 2003 144 5.3. Major U.S. Media Reporting on Iraq and Civilian Casualties, 8/02-3/04 145 5.4. Percentage of Television News Stories by Subject, March 19-April 14, 2003 145 5.5. Attention to Iraq, August 2002 to March 2004 147 5.6. Adequacy of Press Attention to Civilian Casualties and Other Iraq Issues 148 5.7. Preferred Priority for Minimizing Civilian Casualties and Other Desiderata, Early April 2003 152 5.8. Belief War Would Be a Success Given Hypothesized Civilian Casualties, Early April 2003 161 5.9. Reporting on Antiwar Demonstrations in Major U.S. Media, 8/02-3/04 163 5.10. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Iraq, 8/02-3/04 164 5.11. Selected Foreign Media Reporting on Iraq, 8/02-3/04 165 5.12. Mentions of Iraq and Civilian Casualties in Selected Foreign Media by Period 166 5.13. Post-Incident Timeline for March 26, 2003 Marketplace Incident 168 5.14. High Altitude Diagram Used by Maj. Gen McChrystal 169 5.15. Reporting on Civilian Casualties, Marketplace Incident 171 5.16. Foreign Reporting on Civilian Casualties in Iraq, Marketplace Incident 175 5.17. Belief in 20 Countries That U.S. Tried Very Hard to Avoid Civilian Casualties in Iraq, April-May 2003 177 5.18. Does The U.S. Do Enough to Avoid (Civilian) Casualties? Results From 11 Countries 177 5.19. Iraqi Beliefs About How Hard U.S. Is Trying to Avoid Casualties, Spring 2004 178 6.1. Annual Mentions of Civilian Casualties by Opinion Leaders, 1990-2003 181 6.2. Major U.S. Media Reporting on War and Selected NGOs, 1990-2003 182 6.3. Annual Mentions of Antiwar Demonstrations in U.S. Major Media Reporting, 1990-2003 183 6.4. Percent Saying They Have a "Great Deal" of Confidence in Military, 1971-2004 185 6.5. Americans' Confidence in Institutions, June 2003 186 Tables 1.1. Importance to Americans of Civilian Deaths in Using the American Military 3 2.1. How Closely Did Americans Follow Developments in the Gulf? 23 2.2. Approval for the Campaign by Expected Military and Civilian Casualties, February 15-17, 1991 26 2.3. Views on Avoiding Bombing Civilian Areas Before & After Al Firdos Incident 45 2.4. Approval & Disapproval of Going to War With Iraq Before & After Al Firdos Bombing 47 2.5. Views on Whether U.S. Forces Were Inflicting Excessive Damage, February 12-13, 1991 48 2.6. Approval for the War in Iraq, January-February 1991 48 3.1. Published Estimates of Deaths in Kosovo, 1998-99 61 3.2. Comparison of Support for Air War and Ground Options 69 3.3. Knowledge of/Estimates of Civilian Casualties in Kosovo 71 3.4. Cross-Tabulation of the Approval for the Campaign in Kosovo and Beliefs about Effort of the US in Avoiding Civilian Casualties, April 1999 73 3.5. Cross-Tabulation of the Approval for the Campaign in Kosovo and Beliefs about Effort of the US in Avoiding Civilian Casualties, May 1999 74 3.6. U.S. and European Opinion on the War, March-April 1999 76 3.7. Support for War in Kosovo in 16 Countries, March-April 1999 76 3.8. Support for European Defense Independent of NATO, March-April 1999 77 3.9. European Support for the War In Kosovo in Early April 78 3.10. European and U.S. Support for the War In Kosovo in Late April 78 3.11. Attention Paid to Kosovo Before and After April 14 Convoy Incident 89 3.12. Approval of War Before and After the April 14 Incident 89 3.13. Which Kosovo Pictures and Stories Most Caught Respondents' Attention? April 1999 90 3.14. Cross-Tabulation of Approval and Concern About Serb Civilians Being Hurt or Killed 91 3.15. Are We Being Careful Enough to Avoid Civilian Casualties?, by Party, 4/99 92 3.16. European and U.S. Support for the War In Kosovo in Late April 1999 94 3.17. Attention Paid to Kosovo Before and After May 7 Chinese Embassy Incident 100 3.18. Approval and Beliefs About Aggressiveness of War by Day, May 7-9, 1999 101 3.19. Approval of the War Before and After the May 8 Incident 102 3.20. European Support for the War In Kosovo in mid-May 1999 105 3.21. Americans' Concern about Civilian Casualties, April-May 1999 107 3.22. Comparison of Beliefs About Coalition Efforts to Avoid Casualties, Post-Convoy Incident and Post-Chinese Embassy Incident 108 4.1. Associated Press Estimate of Civilian Casualties, February 2002 111 4.2. Judgments About Effectiveness of Military Strikes If Civilian Casualties 117 4.3. Approval of Military Action If Civilian Casualties Would Result 118 4.4. U.S. Doing All It Reasonably Can to Avoid Casualties? 119 4.5. Greater Concern About Civilian Casualties or Achieving Victory? 120 4.6. Accuracy of Information Government Is Providing About Civilian Casualties 120 4.7. Approval of Military Action If Civilian Casualties Would Result 121 4.8. Number of Foreign Publics Polled, and Number Where Majority Supported U.S. 130 4.9. Differences In Support, November-December 2001 and July-October 2002 Polls 130 4.10. Attention Paid to Afghanistan Before and After July 1 Incident 135 4.11. Approval Before and After the July 1 Wedding Party Incident 136 5.1. Assessment of Press Coverage of Civilian Casualties in Iraq, Early April 2003 148 5.2. Greatest Worries About War in Iraq, March 2003 149 5.3. Concern About Iraqi Civilians Being Killed, 1991 and 2003 150 5.4. Concern About Iraqi Civilians Being Killed, 1991 150 5.5. Greatest Worries About U.S. Uses of Military Force, November 2001 and March 2003 151 5.6. Should U.S. Strike Targets Even in Civilian Areas in Iraq? March 2003 152 5.7. Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties in Iraq, March 2003 153 5.8. Willingness to Bomb Baghdad in Two Wars, 1991 and 2003 154 5.9. Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties in Iraq, March 2003 155 5.10. Support for More Aggressive Action Even If Civilian Casualties in Iraq, August 2003 155 5.11. Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties, Late March-Early April 156 5.12. Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties in Iraq, March 2003 157 5.13. Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties in Iraq, Late March-Early April 2003 157 5.14. Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties in Iraq, Early April 2003 158 5.15. Civilian Casualties in Iraq and Expectations, Early April 2003 158 5.16. Assessment of U.S. Efforts to Minimize Civilian Casualties in Iraq, April to December 2003 159 5.17. War in Iraq Successful If Civilian Casualties? Early April 2003 160 5.18. Approval Before and After March 26 Marketplace Incident 172 5.19. Fatigue Before and After March 26 Marketplace Incident 173 5.20. Confidence in U.S. Military and Press Before and After March 26 Marketplace Incident 174 6.1. Credibility Scores of Various Sources from National Credibility Index 188 A.1. Reduced Form Coefficients From Probit Estimates of Approval of Gulf War, February 15-17, 1991 194 A.2. Coefficients from the Probit Estimates (Reduced Form) for Beliefs about the Worth of the Campaign in Iraq, February 1991 195 A.3. Wording of question in LA Times, February 15-17, 1991. 196 A.4. Coefficients From Probit Estimates for Approval (Q13) of Kosovo Campaign, May 1999 197 A.5. Wording of question in Pew research center May 1999 News interest index. 198 A.6. Afghanistan: Marginal Probability from the Probit Estimates of Approval (Q2) 199 A.7. Wording of Questions in ABC News/WPost War Poll #2, November 27 2001 200 A.8. Coefficients from the Probit Estimates for Approval (Q3) of the Military Campaign in Iraq, March 2003 201 A.9. Wording of question in ABC/WP War poll # 1, Marsh 20, 2003. 202 A.10. Coefficients From Probit Estimates for Support of the Military Campaign in Iraq, April 2003 203 A.11. Wording of Questions in ABC/Washington Post War poll # 1, April 3, 2003 203
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Civilian war casualties.
Mass media and war.
War in mass media.
United States. Air Force -- History -- 20th century.
United States. Air Force -- History -- 21st century.
United States. Air Force -- Public relations.
Combatants and noncombatants (International law).
Military history, Modern -- 20th century.
Military history, Modern -- 21st century.
War -- Moral and ethical aspects.