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Preface ix 1. Entering a New World 3 The Nature of the New World 4 Learning from China 9 Learning from the Past 11 The Emerging Politics of Scarcity 14 Getting the Price Right 15 Plan B; A Plan of Hope 17 I. A CIVILIZATION IN TROUBLE 2. Beyond the Oil Peak 21 The Coming Decline of Oil 22 The Oil Intensity of Food 25 The Falling Wheat-Oil Exchange Rate 29 Food and Fuel Compete for Land 30 Cities and Suburbs After Peak Oil 36 The World After Oil Peaks 38 3. Emerging Water Shortages 41 Falling Water Tables 42 Rivers Running Dry 48 Disappearing Lakes 50 Farmers Losing to Cities 53 Scarcity Crossing National Borders 55 A Food Bubble Economy 57 4. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas 59 Rising Temperature and Its Effects 60 The Crop Yield Effect 64 Reservoirs in the Sky 66 Melting Ice and Rising Seas 68 More Destructive Storms 74 Subsidizing Climate Change 77 5. Natural Systems Under Stress 79 Shrinking Forests: The Costs 80 Losing Soil 84 Deteriorating Rangelands 87 Advancing Deserts 89 Collapsing Fisheries 91 Disappearing Plants and Animals 94 6. Early Signs of Decline 99 Our Socially Divided World 100 Health Challenge Growing 103 Throwaway Economy in Trouble 108 Population and Resource Conflicts 110 Environmental Refugees on the Rise 114 Failed States and Terrorism 117 II. THE RESPONSE; PLAN B 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population 123 Universal Basic Education 124 Stabilizing Population 128 Better Health for All 131 Curbing the HIV Epidemic 134 Reducing Farm Subsidies and Debt 136 A Poverty-Eradication Budget 139 8. Restoring the Earth 142 Protecting and Restoring Forests 143 Conserving and Rebuilding Soils 149 Meeting Nature's Water Needs 152 Regenerating Fisheries 154 Protecting Plant and Animal Diversity 156 The Earth Restoration Budget 157 9. Feeding Seven Billion Well 163 Rethinking Land Productivity 164 Raising Water Productivity 167 Producing Protein More Efficiently 170 New Protein Production Systems 174 Moving Down the Food Chain 177 Action on Many Fronts 179 10. Stabilizing Climate 182 Raising Energy Productivity 185 Harnessing the Wind 187 Hybrid Cars and Wind Power 191 Converting Sunlight to Electricity 193 Energy From the Earth 197 Cutting Carbon Emissions Fast 200 11. Designing Sustainable Cities 204 The Ecology of Cities 206 Redesigning Urban Transport 209 Farming in the City 213 Reducing Urban Water Use 216 The Challenge of Urban Slums 219 Cities for People 221 III: AN EXCITING NEW OPTION 12. Building a New Economy 227 Shifting Taxes 228 Shifting Subsidies 233 Ecolabeling: Voting with Our Wallets 235 A New Materials Economy 238 New Industries, New Jobs 244 The Environmental Revolution 247 13. Plan B: Building a New Future 249 Listening for Wake-up Calls 250 A Wartime Mobilization 253 Mobilizing to Save Civilization 255 A Call to Greatness 261 You and Me 264 Additional Resources 267 Notes 273 Index 345 Acknowledgements 361 About the Author 367
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Environmental policy -- Economic aspects.
Natural resources -- Management.
Economic development -- Environmental aspects.