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Contents Preface ii PART I. History, Economics, and Law Chapter 1. Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings: Historical Overview A. Boom-Bust Cycles, Defaults, and Reschedulings, 1820-2003 B. Resolving Debt Crises Creditor Coordination The Content of Debt Restructuring Agreements The Role of the Official Sector C. How Investors Fared Chapter 2. The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Debt Crises: A Primer A. Basics Explaining Why Sovereign Debt Can Exist Explaining Sovereign Debt Structures in Emerging Markets B. The Causes of Debt Crises Debt Runs Balance Sheet Crises and Credit Constraints Overborrowing Empirical Evidence on the Causes of Debt Crises C. The Costs of Debt Crises Theory Empirical Evidence on the Costs of Default Can the Cost of Debt Crises Be Reduced? Chapter 3. Legal Issues in Sovereign Debt Restructuring A. Legal Characteristics of Sovereign Debt Principles Protecting Sovereign Debtors Governing Law Bond Contracts B. Experience with Legal Enforcement of Sovereign Debt Contracts Post-Restructuring Litigation and the ¿Holdout Problem¿ Pre-Restructuring Litigation and the ¿Rush to the Courthouse¿ C. Can Domestic Insolvency Procedures Be Mimicked Through Sovereign Bond Contracts? PART II. The New Debt Crises, 1998-2005 Introduction A. Debt Dynamics B. Debt Restructurings and ¿Haircuts¿ Chapter 4. Russia A. The June-July 1998 Rescue Attempt B. Default and Devaluation C. Banking Crisis D. Defaults on External Debt, and Debt Restructurings Chapter 5. Ukraine A. The Russian Crisis, and September Devaluation B. The Fall 1998 Debt Exchanges C. The August 1999 Exchange D. The 2000 Restructuring E. After the Exchange Chapter 6. Pakistan A. From the 1998 Crisis to the January 1999 Paris Club Deal B. The November 1999 Bond Exchange C. The 2001 Paris Club Deals and Beyond Chapter 7. Ecuador A. The 1998-99 Banking Crisis B. Default and Dollarization C. The 2000 Debt Exchange Chapter 8. Argentina A. Background B. The Crisis Begins C. The ¿Mega Swap¿ D. The November 2001 ¿Phase 1¿ Exchange E. Default and Pesification F. From the ¿Dubai Guidelines¿ to the 2005 Debt Restructuring G. After the Exchange Chapter 9. Moldova Chapter 10. Uruguay A. The Banking Crisis B. The Debt Exchange C. After the Exchange Afterword: The Dominican Republic PART III. Policy Chapter 11. Debt Crises from the Perspective of an Emerging Market Economy Policymaker A. Policy Making During Tranquil Times Crisis Prevention Crisis Preparation B. The Policymaker Facing the Crisis To Fight or Not to Fight? Policy Making Under Pressure C. The Policymaker Who Implements the Default Keeping the Economy Going Working Out a Debt Deal Characteristics of the Debt to Be Issued Chapter 12. International Financial Architecture A. Two Views on Financial Architecture B. New Institutions and Institutional Reform A Crisis Insurance Fund Sovereign Bankruptcy Mechanisms International Crisis Lending with Prequalification An Emerging Market Debt Price Stabilization Fund C. Financial Innovation Indexation to Real Variables Contingent Reserves and Related Hedging Strategies Bond Covenants Local Currency Instruments D. Conclusions Appendix: Tools for the Analysis of Debt Problems A. Solvency and Liquidity Indicators B. Debt Dynamics Decompositions Debt Dynamics Based on a Dollar Debt Accumulation Equation Debt Dynamics Based on a Local Currency Debt Accumulation Equation C. Debt Sustainability Analysis The Basic Intertemporal Approach How Does a Devaluation Affect Debt Sustainability? Dealing with Uncertainty D. Estimating the Probability of Default Based on a Fixed Recovery Value Estimation Based on Sovereign Spreads Using Credit Default Swaps to Estimate Default Probabilities E. Estimating Recovery Values F. Estimating the Interest Cost Impact of Debt Restructurings References 450
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Debts, External -- Developing countries.
Debt relief -- Developing countries.
Developing countries -- Economic policy.