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Preface ix Acknowledgments xii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Our focus 4 1.2 Chapter outline 7 Study questions 9 2 The Demand Side: How Population Growth and Higher Incomes Affect Food Consumption 10 2.1 Classic Malthusianism, its modern variants, and its critiques 11 2.2 Demographic transition 16 2.3 Trends in human numbers, past and present 25 2.4 Food consumption and income 28 2.5 Demand trends and projections 31 2.6 Summary and conclusions 33 Study questions 34 Appendix: The fundamental economics of demand 34 3 The Supply Side: Agricultural Production and Its Determinants 41 3.1 The nature of agriculture 42 3.2 Increases in agricultural supply 49 3.3 Has intensification run its course? 62 3.4 Trends in per-capita production 66 Study questions 67 Appendix: The fundamental economics of supply 68 4 Aligning the Consumption and Production of Food Over Time 74 4.1 The desirability of competitive equilibrium 76 4.2 The market impacts of commodity programs 78 4.3 Historical trends in the scarcity of agricultural products 83 4.4 Outlook for the twenty-first century 86 Southgate-Prelims.qxd 20/6/06 16:58 Page v Study questions 89 Appendix: The coordination of decentralized decision-making 89 5 Agriculture and the Environment 98 5.1 Environmental trade-offs 99 5.2 Market failure 102 5.3 Environmental deterioration in the absence of agricultural intensification 109 5.4 Agricultural development and the environment 119 Study questions 123 6 Globalization and Agriculture 124 6.1 The theory of comparative advantage 125 6.2 The net costs of trade distortions 128 6.3 The debate over globalization 132 6.4 Agricultural trade: recent trends and the current debate 135 6.5 Why not more trade? 142 Study questions 143 Appendix: A two-country illustration of comparative advantage 143 7 Agriculture and Economic Development 147 7.1 Growth and economic structure 148 7.2 Agriculture¿s role in economic development 155 7.3 Trying to develop at agriculture¿s expense 158 7.4 Agricultural development for the sake of economic growth and diversification 161 7.5 Summary and conclusions 164 Study questions 165 8 Striving for Food Security 166 8.1 What is food security? 166 8.2 Who and where are the food insecure? 167 8.3 Achieving food security 170 8.4 The food security synthesis and economic development 176 8.5 The standard model, communitarian values, and economic equity 183 Study questions 185 9 A Synopsis of Regional Trends in the Global Food Economy 187 9.1 Economic growth and income distribution 187 9.2 Population dynamics 191 9.3 Agriculture¿s response to demand growth 198 9.4 Summary 202 Study questions 205 Southgate-Prelims.qxd 20/6/06 16:58 Page vi 10 Affluent Nations 206 10.1 Standards of living 207 10.2 Population dynamics 210 10.3 The food economy 212 10.4 Dietary change and consumption trends 220 10.5 Summary 226 Study questions 227 11 Asia 228 11.1 Trends in gross domestic product per capita 228 11.2 Population dynamics 233 11.3 Agricultural development 237 11.4 Dietary change, consumption trends, and food security 242 11.5 Summary 248 Study questions 248 12 Latin America and the Caribbean 250 12.1 Trends in GDP per capita 251 12.2 Population dynamics 254 12.3 Agricultural development 258 12.4 Dietary change, consumption trends, and food security 265 12.5 Summary 272 Study questions 272 13 The Middle East and North Africa 273 13.1 Trends in GDP per capita 274 13.2 Population dynamics 278 13.3 Agricultural development 281 13.4 Dietary change, consumption trends, and food security 288 13.5 Summary 293 Study questions 294 14 Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union 295 14.1 Patterns of economic growth since the fall of communism 296 14.2 Demographic trends 302 14.3 The agricultural sector 306 14.4 Dietary change, consumption trends, and food security 313 14.5 Summary 318 Study questions 319 15 Sub-Saharan Africa 321 15.1 Trends in GDP per capita 324 15.2 Demographic trends 329 15.3 Agricultural development 337 15.4 Consumption trends and food security 345 15.5 Summary 354 Study questions 355 16 The Global Food Economy in the Twenty-First Century 357 16.1 Victims of our own success? 360 16.2 The new food economy 364 16.3 The changing role of government 366 Study questions 369 Abbreviations and Acronyms 370 Map Annex 372 References 378 Index 391
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Agriculture -- Economic aspects.
Food supply.