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Contents 1. Introduction 1 part I The World in Our Conscious Minds 2. Icons and Images 21 3. Models of Possibilities: From Conjuring Tricks to Disasters 38 part II The World in Our Unconscious Minds 4. Mental Architecture and the Unconscious 51 5. Intuitions and Unconscious Reasoning 60 6. Emotions as Inferences 73 7. Reasoning in Psychological Illnesses 89 part III How We Make Deductions 8. Only Connections 105 9. I'm my own Grandpa: Reasoning About Identities and Other Relations 119 10. Syllogisms and Reasoning about Properties 136 11. Isn't Everyone an Optimist? The Case of Complex Reasoning 153 art IV How We Make Inductions 12. Modulation: A Step Towards Induction 165 13. Knowledge and Inductions 174 14. Sherlock Holmes's Method: Abduction 185 15. The Balance of Probabilities 197 part V What Makes us Rational 16. Counterexamples 213 17. Truths, Lies, and the Higher Reasoning 231 part VI How We Develop Our Ability to Reason 18. On Development 247 19. Strategies and Cultures 262 20. How We can Improve our Reasoning 279 part VII Knowledge, Beliefs, and Problems 21. The Puzzles of If 295 22. Causes and Obligations 311 23. Beliefs, Heresies, and Changes in Mind 332 24. How we Solve Problems 350 part VIII Expert Reasoning in Technology, Logic, and Science 25. Flying Bicycles: How the Wright Brothers Invented the Airplane 369 26. Unwrapping an Enigma 387 27. On the Mode of the Communication of Cholera 402 28. How we Reason 414 Glossary 424 Notes on the Chapters 431 References 494 Index 543 Index 000
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