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CONTENTS List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii List of Abbreviations xix 1.Models of Voting 1 Sociological Models 4 Responsive Voter Models 11 From Normal to Responsive Voters 19 To Vote or Not to Vote 26 The Contemporary Pattern of Voting 30 Conclusions 39 2.Bringing Geography In 42 Context and Scale 43 Bringing Context In 46 Conclusions 62 3.The Geography of Voting: Regions, Places, and Neighbourhoods 63 The Problem of Data 63 The Aggregate Pattern: Variations by Constituency 68 Combining Constituency and Survey Data 73 A NorthSouth Divide in Voting Patterns in the 1980s? 82 Moving Down a Scaleor Two 90 Conclusions 104 4.Talking Together and Voting Together 106 Talking Together and Voting Together? 106 Measuring the Conversation Effect Directly 108 Who Talks Politics? 111 The Impact of Political Conversation 127 Political Conversation and Attitude Change 139 Conclusions 143 5.The Local Economy and the Local Voter 144 Its the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting 144 Measuring the Economic Vote: Which Economy? 147 Economic Evaluations and the Economic Vote 152 Government Responsibility and the Economic Vote 155 Endogenous Economic Voting? 164 Economic Geography and Economic Voting 170 Local Economic Geographies and Perceptions of Economic Performance 177 Local Economic Evaluations and Electoral Geography 181 How Local is Local? 184 Conclusions 185 6.Party Campaigns and Their Impact 187 The National Campaign 188 The Constituency Campaign 197 Measuring Constituency Campaigning 199 The Impact of the Local Campaign 202 The Local Campaign: Locally or Nationally Controlled? 204 Constituency Campaigning and the Individual Voter 212 Who Benefits from Constituency Campaigning: Incumbents or Challengers? 217 Conclusions 225 7.To Vote or Not to Vote: The Problem of Turnout 227 Trends in Turnout over Time: the Growing Problem of Falling Turnout? 229 Who Votes? 238 Turnout and Local Context 246 Minimizing Participation Costs? Turnout and Distance to Polling Station 254 Personal Turnout and the Actions of Others 259 Summarizing the Contextual Effect on Turnout 262 Conclusions 264 8.Votes into Seats 266 Accounting for Disproportionality 270 Not only Disproportional but also Biased 273 The Making of a Geography: Constituency Definition in the UK 275 Geography, Disproportionality and Bias 279 Bias Decomposition and the Geography of the Vote 285 Conclusions 302 Appendix 302 References 307 Index 335
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Elections -- Great Britain.
Voting -- Great Britain.
Great Britain -- Politics and government.