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Table of Contents
I. INTRODUCTION 12
PEACE AGREEMENTS AND THEIR IMPACT ON CONVENTIONAL WAR FIGHTING 12
A SHIFT TOWARDS ASYMMETRIC WARFARE AND WARS OF ATTRITION 14
THE PROBLEM OF PROLIFERATION 16
INTERNAL SECURITY THREATS 17
II. MAJOR TRENDS IN FORCE STRENGTH 20
THE IMPORTANCE OF FORCE QUALITY VERSUS FORCE QUANTITY 20
LOOKING AT A SNAPSHOT OF TOTAL FORCES 21
COMPARATIVE MANPOWER QUANTITY AND QUALITY 29
COMPARATIVE LAND FORCE STRENGTH 33
Comparative Land Force Manpower 33
Varying Mixes of Armor and Anti-Tank Weapons 34
Varying Mixes of Artillery and Anti-Aircraft Weapons 35
COMPARATIVE AIR STRENGTH: QUALITY OVER QUANTITY 50
Comparative Air Force Strength 50
Comparative Land-Based Air Defense Forces 51
COMPARATIVE NAVAL STRENGTH: PERIPHERAL MISSIONS 60
III. TOTAL RESOURCES: RECAPITALIZATION, FORCE MODERNIZATION, AND IMPACT ON EFFECTIVENESS 64
COMPARATIVE TRENDS IN MILITARY EXPENDITURES 64
COMPARATIVE TRENDS IN ARMS IMPORTS 70
IV. THE MILITARY FORCES OF ISRAEL 76
ASYMMETRIC WARS OF ATTRITION 76
The Threat from Proliferation 77
SHIFTING FROM A CONVENTIONAL TO ASYMMETRIC "EDGE" 81
Israeli Approaches to Asymmetric Warfare 82
Rubber Bullets 82
House Demolitions 83
Urban Warfare 85
Targeted Assassinations 86
Dealing with Roadside Attacks and Retaliation 87
Attacks on Settlements and the IDF Response 87
Ground Raids by the IDF 88
Drives into Gaza and the West Bank 89
Use of Large-Scale Arrests 90
Attacking and Isolating the Palestinian Leadership 91
Use of Airpower 92
Israeli Use of Helicopters and Aircraft 93
Countering Palestinian Arms Smuggling and Manufacturing 94
Separation, Security Barriers, and the "Fence" 95
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GAZA AND WEST BANK 102
ADAPTING WHILE RETAINING CONVENTIONAL MILITARY STRENGTHS 105
Trends in Manpower and Total Force Strength: Active versus Reserve Forces 105
The "Kela 2008 Plan" 107
Kushet (Rainbow) Plan 108
ISRAELI LAND FORCES 111
Land Force Transformation 111
Command and Control Changes 112
Main Battle Tanks 113
Other Armor 114
Anti-Tank Weapons 115
Uparmoring Lighter Vehicles and Support Forces 115
Artillery Forces 116
Other Aspects of Land Force Development 117
ISRAELI AIR FORCES 123
Modern Air Operations Are Joint Operations 123
Air Defense and Air-to-Air Combat Capability 124
Air Offense and Air-to-Ground Combat Capability 125
IAF Readiness and Training Standards 126
Current Superiority and Future Challenges 127
ISRAELI LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 132
C4I/BM and Sensor Systems 132
Short-Range Air Defense Systems (SHORADS) 132
Readiness and Effectiveness 133
ISRAELI NAVAL FORCES 135
Surface Fleet Developments 135
Smaller Surface Ships 136
Submarine Forces 136
Amphibious Forces 137
Naval Aviation 137
Naval Readiness and Mission Capability 137
ISRAEL'S COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTERNAL SECURITY FORCES 141
Israeli Capabilities 142
Israeli Terrorist Groups 143
Internal Security versus Human Rights and Political Impacts 144
ISRAELI WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 147
ISRAEL'S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 155
V. THE MILITARY FORCES OF EGYPT 158
FORCE SIZE VERSUS FORCE QUALITY 158
EGYPTIAN LAND FORCES 163
Force Structure and Major Deployments 163
Main Battle Tanks and Other Armor 164
Other Armored Forces 164
Anti-Tank Weapons 165
Artillery 165
Air Defense Forces 165
Readiness and Modernization 166
EGYPTIAN AIR FORCES 172
Combat Air Strength 172
Force "Enablers" and Transport Aircraft 172
Ongoing Force Improvements 173
Readiness and Mission Capabilities 173
EGYPTIAN LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 177
Egyptian Force Structure 177
Modernization and Upgrades 177
Short Range Air Defenses: SHORADS 178
Readiness and Mission Capability 178
EGYPTIAN NAVAL FORCES 181
Submarine Forces 181
Major Surface Forces 181
Missiles and Other Patrol Craft 182
Mine Warfare Capability 183
Amphibious Forces 183
Coastal Defense Forces 183
Naval Aviation 184
Readiness and Mission Capability 184
EGYPTIAN PARAMILITARY, SECURITY, AND INTELLIGENCE FORCES 189
Key Egyptian Security, Intelligence, and Paramilitary Forces 189
Major Internal Security Threats 190
Internal Security versus Human Rights and Political Impacts 192
EGYPTIAN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 196
EGYPT'S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 200
The Sinai Contingency 200
The New Security Mission in the Gaza 204
Egypt's Current Strategic Challenges 205
VI. THE MILITARY FORCES OF JORDAN 207
TRENDS IN JORDANIAN FORCE DEVELOPMENT 208
JORDANIAN ARMY 213
The Jordanian Army Command Structure 213
Jordanian Main Battle Tanks 214
Jordanian Other Armored Vehicles 214
Jordanian Anti-Tank Weapons 215
Jordanian Artillery 215
Jordanian Anti-Aircraft 215
Jordanian Army Readiness and Effectiveness 216
JORDANIAN AIR FORCE 220
Fixed Wing Air Units 220
Rotary Wing Air Units 220
JORDANIAN LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 220
JORDANIAN NAVAL FORCES 224
JORDANIAN PARAMILITARY, SECURITY, AND INTELLIGENCE FORCES 226
Major Terrorist and Extremist Threats 226
Jordanian Counterterrorism 227
Security versus Reform 227
JORDAN'S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 231
Jordanian Support of Palestinian Forces in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Israel 231
Jordanian "Rescue" of Palestinians in the West Bank: 232
Jordanian Cooperation With Syria 234
Jordan's Current Security Challenges 234
VII. THE MILITARY FORCES OF LEBANON 236
LEBANESE INTERNAL SECURITY AFTER SYRIAN WITHDRAWL 238
THE TRENDS IN LEBANESE FORCES 238
THE LEBANESE ARMY 243
Major Combat Equipment 243
Training and Readiness 244
THE LEBANESE AIR FORCE 248
LEBANESE NAVAL FORCES 250
LEBANESE PARAMILITARY FORCES AND THE HEZBOLLAH 252
Non-State Forces: Hezbollah 253
Non-State Forces: Abat al-Ansar 260
The Role of the Lebanese Security Forces 261
LEBANON'S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 265
VIII. THE MILITARY FORCES OF PALESTINE 266
THE OSLO ACCORDS AND THE NEW ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN WAR 266
THE DEATH OF ARAFAT AND THE VICTORY OF HAMAS: REDEFINING PALESTINIAN POLITICS AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI MILITARY BALANCE 267
THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY FORCES 269
Palestinian Authority Forces During the Peace Process 269
The Impact of the Israeli-Palestinian War 270
The Uncertain Size of Current Palestinian Authority Security Forces 272
PALESTINIAN SECURITY FORCES AND INTERNAL SECURITY IN GAZA AND THE WEST BANK 273
PALESTINIAN MILITANT ORGANIZATIONS AND THEIR MILITARY IMPACT 275
The Differing Character of Palestinian Militant Groups 277
Hamas or Harakat Al-Muqawwama Al-Islamia (Islamic Resistance Movement) 277
Islamic Jihad 290
Fatah Tanzim ("Organization") 294
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade 296
Smaller Militant Groups 299
PALESTINIAN APPROACHES TO ASYMMETRIC WARFARE 301
Suicide Bombings 301
Mortars and Rockets 302
Political Warfare and Weapons of Mass Media 304
PALESTINIAN STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 305
IX. THE MILITARY FORCES OF SYRIA 313
LEBANON AND SYRIA'S PROXY WAR WITH ISRAEL 313
SYRIA'S BROADER REGIONAL PROBLEMS 314
THE TRENDS IN SYRIAN FORCES 315
The Syrian Modernization and Recapitalization Crisis 315
The Russian Connection? 316
The Israeli Problem 317
Continuing to Go "Hollow" 318
SYRIAN LAND FORCES 324
Syrian Force Strengths and Deployments 324
Syrian Main Battle Tanks 325
Syrian Other Armored Vehicles 325
Syrian Antitank Weapons 325
Syrian Artillery 326
Syrian Army Air Defenses 326
Syrian Army Training and Readiness 327
SYRIAN AIR AND AIR DEFENSE FORCES 332
Syrian Combat Air Strength 332
Syrian Rotary Wing Combat Strength 332
SYRIAN LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 336
Syrian Air Defense Weapons 336
Shorter Range Syrian Air Defenses 336
Syrian Air Defense Training and Readiness 336
Syria's Need for Air Defense Modernization 337
SYRIAN NAVAL FORCES 339
Syrian Surface Forces 339
Syrian Amphibious Capability 340
Syrian Naval Aviation 340
Syrian Coastal Defense Forces 340
Syrian Naval Readiness and Training 340
SYRIAN PARAMILITARY, SECURITY, AND INTELLIGENCE FORCES 343
SYRIAN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 348
Syrian Progress in Weapons Development 348
Possible Syrian Strategy, Tactics, and Employment 348
SYRIA'S CONTINUING STRATEGIC CHALLENGES 355
Real-World Syrian Options on the Golan 355
Israeli Options Against Syria 359
Syrian Risk Taking 361
Syria's Real World Strategic Priorities 361
X. AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE 363
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Israel -- Armed Forces.
Arab countries -- Armed Forces.
Middle East -- Armed Forces.
Asymmetric warfare -- Middle East.