Table of contents for Simulation with Arena / W. David Kelton, Randall P. Sadowski, David T. Sturrock.

Bibliographic record and links to related information available from the Library of Congress catalog.

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Contents
Chapter 1: What Is Simulation? 1
1.1 Modeling 3
1.1.1 What?s Being Modeled? 4
1.1.2 How About Just Playing with the System? 5
1.1.3 Sometimes You Can?t (or Shouldn?t) Play with the System ?5
1.1.4 Physical Models 6
1.1.5 Logical (or Mathematical) Models 6
1.1.6 What Do You Do with a Logical Model? 6
1.2 Computer Simulation 7
1.2.1 Popularity and Advantages 7
1.2.2 The Bad News 8
1.2.3 Different Kinds of Simulations 9
1.3 How Simulations Get Done 10
1.3.1 By Hand 10
1.3.2 Programming in General-Purpose Languages 11
1.3.3 Simulation Languages 12
1.3.4 High-Level Simulators 12
1.3.5 Where Arena Fits In 12
1.4 When Simulations Are Used 14
1.4.1 The Early Years 14
1.4.2 The Formative Years 14
1.4.3 The Recent Past 15
1.4.4 The Present 15
1.4.5 The Future 15
Chapter 2: Fundamental Simulation Concepts 17
2.1 An Example 19
2.1.1 The System 19
2.1.2 Goals of the Study 21
2.2 Analysis Options 22
2.2.1 Educated Guessing 22
2.2.2 Queueing Theory 23
2.2.3 Mechanistic Simulation?24
2.3 Pieces of a Simulation Model ?24
2.3.1 Entities ?24
2.3.2 Attributes 25
2.3.3 (Global) Variables 26
2.3.4 Resources 26
2.3.5 Queues 26
2.3.6 Statistical Accumulators 27
2.3.7 Events 27
2.3.8 Simulation Clock 28
2.3.9 Starting and Stopping 28
2.4 Event-Driven Hand Simulation 29
2.4.1 Outline of the Action 29
2.4.2 Keeping Track of Things 30
2.4.3 Carrying It Out 32
2.4.4 Finishing Up 36
2.5 Event- and Process-Oriented Simulation 36
2.6 Randomness in Simulation 38
2.6.1 Random Input, Random Output 38
2.6.2 Replicating the Example 39
2.6.3 Comparing Alternatives 40
2.7 Overview of a Simulation Study 42
2.8 Exercises 43
Chapter 3: A Guided Tour Through Arena 47
3.1 Starting Up 49
3.2 Exploring the Arena Window 51
3.2.1 Opening a Model 51
3.2.2 Basic Interaction and Pieces of the Arena Window 51
3.2.3 Moving Around and Up and Down in the Flowchart View 54
3.2.4 Modules 55
3.2.5 Internal Model Documentation 56
3.3 Browsing Through an Existing Model: Model 3-1 57
3.3.1 The Create Flowchart Module 57
3.3.2 The Entity Data Module 59
3.3.3 The Process Flowchart Module 59
3.3.4 The Resource Data Module 62
3.3.5 The Queue Data Module 62
3.3.6 Animating Resources and Queues 63
3.3.7 The Dispose Flowchart Module 63
3.3.8 Connecting Flowchart Modules 64
3.3.9 Dynamic Plots 65
3.3.10 Dressing Things Up 67
3.3.11 Setting the Run Conditions 67
3.3.12 Running It 69
3.3.13 Viewing the Reports 69
3.4 Building Model 3-1 Yourself 75
3.4.1 New Model Window and Basic Process Panel 75
3.4.2 Place and Connect the Flowchart Modules 76
3.4.3 The Create Flowchart Module 77
3.4.4 Displays 77
3.4.5 The Entity Data Module 78
3.4.6 The Process Flowchart Module 78
3.4.7 The Resource and Queue Data Modules 79
3.4.8 Resource Animation 79
3.4.9 The Dispose Flowchart Module 80
3.4.10 Dynamic Plots 80
3.4.11 Window Dressing 83
3.4.12 The Run > Setup Dialog Boxes 84
3.4.13 Establishing Named Views 84
3.5 More on Menus, Toolbars, Drawing, and Printing 84
3.5.1 Menus 84
3.5.2 Toolbars 88
3.5.3 Drawing 91
3.5.4 Printing 93
3.6 Help! 93
3.7 More on Running Models 94
3.8 Summary and Forecast 95
3.9 Exercises 96
Chapter 4: Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs 101
4.1 Model 4-1: An Electronic Assembly and Test System 103
4.1.1 Developing a Modeling Approach 104
4.1.2 Building the Model 105
4.1.3 Running the Model 116
4.1.4 Viewing the Results 118
4.2 Model 4-2: The Enhanced Electronic Assembly and Test System 120
4.2.1 Expanding Resource Representation: Schedules and States 122
4.2.2 Resource Schedules 122
4.2.3 Resource Failures 126
4.2.4 Frequencies 128
4.2.5 Results of Model 4-2 131
4.3 Model 4-3: Enhancing the Animation 135
4.3.1 Changing Animation Queues 136
4.3.2 Changing Entity Pictures 138
4.3.3 Adding Resource Pictures 140
4.3.4 Adding Variables and Plots 142
4.4 Model 4-4: The Electronic Assembly and Test System with Part Transfers 144
4.4.1 Some New Arena Concepts: Stations and Transfers 144
4.4.2 Adding the Route Logic 146
4.4.3 Altering the Animation 149
4.5 Input Analysis: Specifying Model Parameters and Distributions 152
4.5.1 Deterministic vs. Random Inputs 153
4.5.2 Collecting Data 154
4.5.3 Using Data 155
4.5.4 Fitting Input Distributions via the Input Analyzer 156
4.5.5 No Data 164
4.5.6 Nonstationary Arrival Processes 166
4.5.7 Multivariate and Correlated Input Data 167
4.6 Summary and Forecast 168
4.7 Exercises 168
Chapter 5: Modeling Detailed Operations 175
5.1 Model 5-1: An Automotive Maintenance and Repair Shop 178
5.2 New Modeling Issues 179
5.2.1 Multiple-Way Decisions 179
5.2.2 Sets 180
5.2.3 Variables and Expressions 180
5.2.4 Submodels 181
5.2.5 Duplicating Entities 182
5.2.6 Holding Entities 182
5.2.7 Statistics and Animation 182
5.2.8 Terminating or Steady-State 183
5.3 Modeling Approach 184
5.4 Building the Model 185
5.4.1 Defining the Data 186
5.4.2 Submodel Creation 192
5.4.3 Generate Appointment Calls 193
5.4.4 Make Appointment 198
5.4.5 Service Activity 201
5.4.6 Update Performance Variables 205
5.4.7 Control Logic 208
5.5 Finding and Fixing Model Errors 209
5.6 Animating the Automotive Shop Model 218
5.7 Model 5-2: Enhancing the Automotive Shop Model 223
5.8 New Modeling Issues for Model 5-2 223
5.8.1 Sets and Resource Logic 223
5.8.2 Nonstationary Arrival Process 225
5.9 Building Model 5-2 226
5.9.1 Modeling the Service Bays 226
5.9.2 Modeling the Customer Arrivals 228
5.10 Model 5-3: An (s, S) Inventory Simulation 233
5.10.1 System Description 233
5.10.2 Simulation Model 235
5.11 Summary and Forecast 247
5.12 Exercises 247
Chapter 6: Statistical Analysis of Output from Terminating Simulations 255
6.1 Time Frame of Simulations 258
6.2 Strategy for Data Collection and Analysis 258
6.3 Confidence Intervals for Terminating Systems 260
6.4 Comparing Two Alternatives 265
6.5 Evaluating Many Alternatives with the Process Analyzer (PAN) 268
6.6 Searching for an Optimal Alternative with OptQuest 275
6.7 Summary and Forecast 278
6.8 Exercises 279
Chapter 7: Intermediate Modeling and Steady-State Statistical Analysis 283
7.1 Model 7-1: A Small Manufacturing System 285
7.1.1 New Arena Concepts 286
7.1.2 The Modeling Approach 288
7.1.3 The Data Modules 289
7.1.4 The Logic Modules 291
7.1.5 Animation 298
7.1.6 Verification 300
7.2 Statistical Analysis of Output from Steady-State Simulations 304
7.2.1 Warm-Up and Run Length 304
7.2.2 Truncated Replications 308
7.2.3 Batching in a Single Run 309
7.2.4 What To Do? 312
7.2.5 Other Methods and Goals for Steady-State Statistical Analysis 313
7.3 Summary and Forecast 313
7.4 Exercises 313
Chapter 8: Entity Transfer 319
8.1 Types of Entity Transfers 321
8.2 Model 8-1: The Small Manufacturing System with Resource-Constrained 
Transfers 323
8.3 The Small Manufacturing System with Transporters 327
8.3.1 Model 8-2: The Modified Model 8-1 for Transporters 328
8.3.2 Model 8-3: Refining the Animation for Transporters 335
8.4 Conveyors 341
8.4.1 Model 8-4: The Small Manufacturing System with Nonaccumulating Conveyors 
344
8.4.2 Model 8-5: The Small Manufacturing System with Accumulating Conveyors 349
8.5 Summary and Forecast 350
8.6 Exercises 350
Chapter 9: A Sampler of Further Modeling Issues and Techniques 353
9.1 Modeling Conveyors Using the Advanced Transfer Panel 355
9.1.1 Model 9-1: Finite Buffers at Stations 356
9.1.2 Model 9-2: Parts Stay on Conveyor During Processing 360
9.2 More on Transporters 361
9.3 Entity Reneging 363
9.3.1 Entity Balking and Reneging 363
9.3.2 Model 9-3: A Service Model with Balking and Reneging 363
9.4 Holding and Batching Entities 371
9.4.1 Modeling Options 371
9.4.2 Model 9-4: A Batching Process Example 372
9.5 Overlapping Resources 378
9.5.1 System Description 378
9.5.2 Model 9-5: A Tightly Coupled Production System 380
9.5.3 Model 9-6: Adding Part-Status Statistics 387
9.6 A Few Miscellaneous Modeling Issues 390
9.6.1 Guided Transporters 390
9.6.2 Parallel Queues 390
9.6.3 Decision Logic 392
9.7 Exercises 392
Chapter 10: Arena Integration and Customization 399
10.1 Model 10-1: Reading and Writing Data Files 401
10.1.1 Model 10-2: Reading Entity Arrivals from a Text File 403
10.1.2 Model 10-3 and Model 10-4: Reading and Writing Access and Excel Files 407
10.1.3 Advanced Reading and Writing 415
10.2 VBA in Arena 418
10.2.1 Overview of ActiveX Automation and VBA 418
10.2.2 Built-in Arena VBA Events 420
10.2.3 Arena?s Object Model 424
10.2.4 Arena?s Macro Recorder 427
10.3 Model 10-5: Presenting Arrival Choices to the User 430
10.3.1 Modifying the Creation Logic 430
10.3.2 Designing the VBA User Form 432
10.3.3 Displaying the Form and Setting Model Data 434
10.4 Model 10-6: Recording and Charting Model Results in Microsoft Excel 441
10.4.1 Setting Up Excel at the Beginning of the Run 442
10.4.2 Storing Individual Call Data Using the VBA Module 445
10.4.3 Charting the Results and Cleaning Up at the End of the Run 447
10.5 Creating Modules Using the Arena Professional Edition: Template 10-1 448
10.5.1 The Create from File Module 449
10.5.2 The Template Source File: Template 10-01.tpl 450
10.5.3 The Panel Icon and User View 451
10.5.4 The Module Logic and Operands 451
10.5.5 Uses of Templates 454
10.6 Summary and Forecast 455
10.7 Exercises 456
Chapter 11: Continuous and Combined Discrete/Continuous Models 457
11.1 Modeling Simple Discrete/Continuous Systems 460
11.1.1 Model 11-1: A Simple Continuous System 460
11.1.2 Model 11-2: Interfacing Continuous and Discrete Logic 463
11.2 Model 11-3: A Coal-Loading Operation 467
11.2.1 System Description 468
11.2.2 Modeling Approach 469
11.2.3 Building the Model 471
11.3 Continuous State-Change Systems 481
11.3.1 Model 11-4: A Soaking-Pit Furnace 481
11.3.2 Modeling Continuously Changing Rates 482
11.3.3 Arena?s Approach for Solving Differential Equations 483
11.3.4 Building the Model 484
11.3.5 Defining the Differential Equations Using VBA 488
11.4 Summary and Forecast 490
11.5 Exercises 491
Chapter 12: Further Statistical Issues 495
12.1 Random-Number Generation 497
12.2 Generating Random Variates 503
12.2.1 Discrete 503
12.2.2 Continuous 505
12.3 Nonstationary Poisson Processes 507
12.4 Variance Reduction 508
12.4.1 Common Random Numbers 509
12.4.2 Other Methods 515
12.5 Sequential Sampling 517
12.5.1 Terminating Models 517
12.5.2 Steady-State Models 522
12.6 Designing and Executing Simulation Experiments 524
12.7 Exercises 524
Chapter 13: Conducting Simulation Studies 527
13.1 A Successful Simulation Study 529
13.2 Problem Formulation 532
13.3 Solution Methodology 533
13.4 System and Simulation Specification 534
13.5 Model Formulation and Construction 538
13.6 Verification and Validation 540
13.7 Experimentation and Analysis 543
13.8 Presenting and Preserving the Results 544
13.9 Disseminating the Model 545
Appendix A: A Functional Specification for The Washington Post 547
A.1 Introduction 549
Document Organization 549
A.1.2
Simulation Objectives 549
A.1.3
Purpose of the Functional Specification 550
A.1.4
Use of the Model 550
A.1.5
Hardware and Software Requirements 551
A.2
System Description and Modeling Approach 551
A.2.1
Model Timeline 551
A.2.2
Presses 551
A.2.3
Product Types 553
A.2.4
Press Packaging Lines 553
A.2.5
Tray System 553
A.2.6
Truck Arrivals 554
A.2.7
Docks 555
A.2.8
Palletizers 555
A.2.9
Manual Insertion Process 556
A.3
Animation 557
A.4
Summary of Input and Output 557
A.4.1
Model Input 557
A.4.2
Model Output 558
A.5
Project Deliverables 560
A.5.1
Simulation Model Documentation 560
A.5.2
User?s Manual 560
A.5.3
Model Validation 560
A.5.4 Animation 560
A.6
Acceptance 560
Appendix B: IIE/RS Contest Problems 563
B.1
First Annual Contest: The SM Superstore 565
B.2
Second Annual Contest: The SM Market 567
B.3 Third Annual Contest: Sally Model?s SM Pizza Shop 570
B.4
Fourth Annual Contest: SM Office Repair 574
B.5
Fifth Annual Contest: SM Rental 576
B.6 Sixth Annual Contest: SM Theme Parks 579
B.7
Seventh Annual Contest: SM Testing 583
B.8 Eighth Annual Contest: SM Travel 589
B.9 Ninth Annual Contest: SM Electronics 593
Appendix C: A Refresher on Probability and Statistics 597
C.1
Probability Basics 599
C.2
Random Variables 601
Basics 601
C.2.2
Discrete 602
C.2.3 Continuous 604
C.2.4
Joint Distributions, Covariance, Correlation, and Independence 606
C.3
Sampling and Sampling Distributions 609
C.4
Point Estimation 611
C.5
Confidence Intervals 611
C.6
Hypothesis Tests 613
C.7
Exercises 615
Appendix D: Arena?s Probability Distributions 617
Arena?s Probability Distributions 619
Beta 621
Continuous 622
Discrete 624
Erlang 625
Exponential 626
Gamma 627
Johnson 628
Lognormal 629
Normal 630
Poisson 631
Triangular 632
Uniform 633
Weibull 634
Appendix E: Academic Software Installation Instructions 635
E.1
Authorization to Copy Software 637
E.2
Installing the Arena Software 637
E.3
System Requirements 638
References 639
Index 645

Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:

Computer simulation.
Arena (Computer file).