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First published 2005 by Routledge, an imprint of Taylor & Francis 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group ? 2005 Brynjar Lia Typeset in by Printed and bound in Great Britain by All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data ISBN 0-714-65261-X <BR><HR><BR> <TOC> First published 2005 by Routledge, an imprint of Taylor & Francis 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group ? 2005 Brynjar Lia Typeset in by Printed and bound in Great Britain by All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data ISBN 0-714-65261-X 1. <BR><HR><BR> <TOC> Introduction 14 Towards a Framework for Predicting Future Patterns of Terrorism 18 Defining Terrorism 28 Causes of Terrorism 36 2. Globalisation and Armed Conflicts 41 The Future of Globalisation 41 The Impact of Globalisation 44 Possible Implications for Terrorism 48 The Future of Armed Conflicts 52 The Rise of Internationalised Internal conflicts 56 Illegitimate States, Legitimate Revolts 59 Al-Qaida and the Rise of Global Civil Wars 61 Beyond War: The Globalised Political Economy of Conflict 64 The Emergence of a Global Guerrilla State Authority? 69 Conclusion 73 3. International Relations and Politics 75 The World Order 76 Consequences for the future of terrorism 83 Weapons of Mass Destruction 85 Nuclear Proliferation Risks 90 CBW Proliferation Risks 97 Democratization Processes and the Spread of Illiberal Democracies 107 Trends in State Formation and State Failure 118 State Formation 120 Failed and Collapsed States 123 Trends in Peacekeeping and Military Interventions 130 Peacekeeping 131 Military Interventions 140 Islamist Responses to Western Interventions 143 Implications for Terrorism 150 Trends in Multilateralism 152 Implications for Terrorism 157 The Proliferation of Non-Governmental Organisations 159 Implications for Terrorism 163 4. The Global Market Economy 168 Trends in Economic Inequality 170 Implications for Terrorism 179 Powerless Politicians? Powerful Businesses? 183 The Rise of Transnational Corporations 185 TNCs and Terrorism 187 Privatizing Policing and Warfare 193 Implications for Terrorists and Insurgent Groups 201 The Globalisation of Organised Crime 209 Drug Trade, Human Trafficking, Alien Smuggling 210 Trafficking in Explosives 214 Changing Patterns, Underlying Causes 218 Implications for Transnational Terrorism 223 Middle East Petroleum and the Future of Energy Trade 229 Future Trends in Petroleum Energy Dependence 232 Implications for Terrorism 239 5. The Demographic Factor 245 Demographic Trends 246 Implications for Terrorism 255 The Immigration Dilemma 258 Migration and Ethno-Demographic Changes 259 Hate Crimes, Racial Riots, and Ethnic Terrorism 265 Diasporas, Overseas Insurgencies, and Transnational Terrorism 267 Human Smuggling and Transnational Terrorism 271 6. Ideological Shifts 274 The Future Landscape of Extremist Ideologies 275 A Resurgent Left? 278 The Challenge of Islamism and al-Qaidaism 279 The New Religious Extremism 283 Towards a Diffuse and Rapidly Changing Ideological Landscape 286 Possible Implications for Terrorism 289 7. Our Technological Future 291 Terrorism and Technology 293 The Future Potentials of Cyberterrorism: Computers as Weapons 297 Information Technologies in Conventional Terrorism 299 The Globalisation of Empowering Technologies 302 Dual-Use Technology and Improvised Weapons 304 New Interactive Mass Media Technologies 307 Counter-Terrorist Technologies 308 Possible Impact on Terrorism Patterns 315 8. Conclusion 317 9. Selected Bibliography 331
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
Terrorism.
Terrorism -- Forecasting.
Globalization.
International relations.
World politics -- 1989-.