Table of contents for The Central and Eastern European countries and the European Union / edited by Michael Artis, Anindya Banerjee, Massimiliano Marcellino.

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CONTENTS
List of contributors17
Acknowledgments22
Introduction25
Chapter 1: New Member States Macroeconomic Outlook
and Forecasts43
1.1 The Recent Economic recovery in the New
Member States
1.2 Inflation's Temporary Resurgence not yet a Concern
1.3 The Rush to the Euro - A Dose of Realism
1.4 Fiscal Challenges and Interest Rate Convergence
1.5 Country Overviews
1.5.1 Poland's expansion to continue beyond 2005
1.5.2 The Czech Republic to rely on external
demand and investment
1.5.3 Hungary's manufacturing sector and investment
are driving accelerated growth
1.5.4 Fiscal reforms place Slovakia as the most
progressive country in Central Europe
1.5.5 Slovenia looks to net exports to boost growth
1.5.6 The Baltic again to set the pace for economic
growth among the new Member States
1.5.7 Cyprus and Malta
Chapter 2: The Asymmetric Impact of Enlargements on
Old and New Member States: A General Equilibrium
Approach101
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The Pre-enlargement Situation
2.3 General equilibrium Dimensions of enlargement
2.4 From Trade Liberalisation to Deep Economic
integration
2.4.1 Trade liberalisation
2.4.2 Market integration
2.4.3 “Accession”
2.4.4 Comparison of dynamics across scenarios
2.5 Comparison with Other studies Using a
Similar Methodology
Conclusions
References
Chapter 3: Chances in the Spatial Distribution
Patterns of European Regional Activity: The Enlargements
of the Mid-eighties and 2004146
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Spatial Agglomeration Models: Theoretical Aspects
and Empirical Evidence
3.2.1 What have we learned from spatial models?
3.2.2 What does the previous evidence of empirical
spatial specialisation suggest?
3.3 Defining Data and Indices
3.4 Analysis of the distribution of the Evolution of
Spatial Activity: 1985-1995
3.5 The Effects of the New Enlargement on
Distribution of Activity : From EU-15 to EU-27
3.6 Conclusions
3.7 References
Chapter 4: Forecasting Macroeconomic variables
for the New Member States191
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Methodology
4.2.1 Forecasting models
4.2.2 Forecast Comparison
4.3 The Data
4.4 Forcasting Results
4.4.1 The Czech Republic
4.4.2 Hungary
4.4.3 Poland
4.4.4 Slovakia
4.4.5 Slovenia
4.4.6 The role of Euro area information
4.4.7 I(2) prices, wages and money
4.5 CONCLUSIONS
4.6 REFERENCES
Chapter 5: The Cyclical experience of the
New Member States228
INTRODUCTION
The SALIENCE OF THE TOPIC
5.2 Our APPROACH
5.3 APPLICATION AND RESULTS
5.4.1 Classical cycles
5.4.2 Growth rate cycles
5.4.3 Deviation cycles
5.4.4 Comparison with recent studies
5.5 CONCLUSIONS
5.6 REFERENCES
Chapter 6: Demand and Supply SHOCKS IN THE
New Member States269
INTRODUCTION
6.2 Asymmetric Shocks and the optimum
Currency Areas Approach
6.3 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
6.3.1 Some descriptive statistics
6.3.2 Demand and supply shocks: the Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1992) model
6.3.3 A dynamic analysis of the degree of shock
symmetry in the new Member States
6.4 CONCLUSIONS
6.5 REFERENCES
Chapter 7: Monetary Transmission in the new
Member States303
7.1 INTRODUCTION
7.2 Review of the Empirical Literature on
Monetary Transmission in the New member States
7.3 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
7.3.1 Methodology and data
7.3.2 Monetary transmission in the Euro area
7.3.3 Monetary transmission in the new
Member States
7.4 CONCLUSIONS
7.5 REFERENCES
Chapter 8: Promoting Fiscal Restraint in three
Central European Member States353
8.1 INTRODUCTION
8.2 BACKGROUND
8.3 The Weak point of Medium-Term
Budgetary planning
8.4 Public Finance in the Pre-Accession
Economic Programs
8.5 SCENARIOS
8.5.1 The “Official” scenario
8.5.2 The Baseline scenario
8.5.3 The “Expansion/Austerity” scenario
8.5.4 The “Fiscal Prudence” scenario
Chapter 9: Current Accounts Dynamics in New
EU Members406
9.1 INTRODUCTION
9.2 Basic ientities and Some Stylised Facts
9.3 How Important is the Current Account?
9.4 Metbodoogies for Assessing Sustainability
9.5 Modelling the Current Account
9.6 A Simple Econometric Model
9.6.1 Projections
9.7 Policy Issues
9.7.1 Increasing the saving rate?
9.7.2 Early adoption of the euro: is it wise?
9.8 CONCLUSIONS
9.9 REFERENCES
Chapter 10: Challenges to Banking Sector Stability
in Selected Elected New Member States451
10.1 INTRODUCTION
10.2 Progress to Date in Restructuring of the
Banking Sectors
10.2.1 Privatisation of the banking sectors
102.2 Restructuring: the Czech case
10.2.3 Restructuring: the Polish case
10.2.4 Restructuring: the Romanian case
10.2.5 Easing the burden of non‐performing loans
10.2.6 Restructuring and concentration in the
banking sectors
10.3 Current Indicators of Oerational
Efficiency and Financial Stability
10.4 Bank Regulation and Supervision
10.5 Challenges to the Banking Sectors in the
Run‐up to Accession and the Euro and Pplicy
Implications
10.6 CONCLUSIONS
10.7 REFERENCES
Chapter 11: Infrastructure Investments as a Tool for Regional Development Policy: Lessons from the Spanish Evidence501
11.1 INTRODUCTION
11.2 Model SPECIFICATION
11.3 Data and Spatial Exploratory Analysis
11.4 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
11.5 CONCLUSIONS
11.6 REFERENCES
Chapter 12: TFP, Costs, and Public Infrastructure:
An Equivocal Relationship542
12.1 INTRODUCTION
12.2 The Theoretical Framework
12.2.1 The Total Factor Productivity approach
12.2.2 The production function approach
12..2. 3 The cost function approach
12.3 The Data
12.3.1 Data sources and definitions
12.3.2 Output, private inputs and TFP
12.4 The Role of Public Capital
12.4.1 Results from growth accounting
12.4.2 Results from the production function approach
12.4.3 Results from the cost function approach
12.4.4 Comparing the results
12.4.5 Causality and sensitivity analysis
12.5 CONCLUSIONS
12.6 REFERENCES
Chapter 13: Regional Policies After the EU Enlargement600
13.1 INTRODUCTION
13.2 Initial Conditions and Simulations of the Future
13.2.1 Per capita income and labour productivity
13.2.2 Saving and investment
13.2.3 Labour market
13.2.4 Growth accounting
13.2.5 Regional inequalities in new Member States
13.2.6 A simulation exercise
13.3 Principles, Instruments, Jurisdiction
13.3.1 Which economic principles?
13.3.2 Which policy instruments?
13.3.3 Which policies?
13.3.4 Which jurisdiction?
13.4 CONCLUSIONS
13.5 REFERENCES

Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:

European Union -- Europe, Eastern.
European Union -- Europe, Central.
Europe, Eastern -- Economic policy -- 1989-.
Europe, Central -- Economic policy.