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CONTENTS List of contributors17 Acknowledgments22 Introduction25 Chapter 1: New Member States Macroeconomic Outlook and Forecasts43 1.1 The Recent Economic recovery in the New Member States 1.2 Inflation's Temporary Resurgence not yet a Concern 1.3 The Rush to the Euro - A Dose of Realism 1.4 Fiscal Challenges and Interest Rate Convergence 1.5 Country Overviews 1.5.1 Poland's expansion to continue beyond 2005 1.5.2 The Czech Republic to rely on external demand and investment 1.5.3 Hungary's manufacturing sector and investment are driving accelerated growth 1.5.4 Fiscal reforms place Slovakia as the most progressive country in Central Europe 1.5.5 Slovenia looks to net exports to boost growth 1.5.6 The Baltic again to set the pace for economic growth among the new Member States 1.5.7 Cyprus and Malta Chapter 2: The Asymmetric Impact of Enlargements on Old and New Member States: A General Equilibrium Approach101 2.1 Introduction 2.2 The Pre-enlargement Situation 2.3 General equilibrium Dimensions of enlargement 2.4 From Trade Liberalisation to Deep Economic integration 2.4.1 Trade liberalisation 2.4.2 Market integration 2.4.3 “Accession” 2.4.4 Comparison of dynamics across scenarios 2.5 Comparison with Other studies Using a Similar Methodology Conclusions References Chapter 3: Chances in the Spatial Distribution Patterns of European Regional Activity: The Enlargements of the Mid-eighties and 2004146 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spatial Agglomeration Models: Theoretical Aspects and Empirical Evidence 3.2.1 What have we learned from spatial models? 3.2.2 What does the previous evidence of empirical spatial specialisation suggest? 3.3 Defining Data and Indices 3.4 Analysis of the distribution of the Evolution of Spatial Activity: 1985-1995 3.5 The Effects of the New Enlargement on Distribution of Activity : From EU-15 to EU-27 3.6 Conclusions 3.7 References Chapter 4: Forecasting Macroeconomic variables for the New Member States191 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Methodology 4.2.1 Forecasting models 4.2.2 Forecast Comparison 4.3 The Data 4.4 Forcasting Results 4.4.1 The Czech Republic 4.4.2 Hungary 4.4.3 Poland 4.4.4 Slovakia 4.4.5 Slovenia 4.4.6 The role of Euro area information 4.4.7 I(2) prices, wages and money 4.5 CONCLUSIONS 4.6 REFERENCES Chapter 5: The Cyclical experience of the New Member States228 INTRODUCTION The SALIENCE OF THE TOPIC 5.2 Our APPROACH 5.3 APPLICATION AND RESULTS 5.4.1 Classical cycles 5.4.2 Growth rate cycles 5.4.3 Deviation cycles 5.4.4 Comparison with recent studies 5.5 CONCLUSIONS 5.6 REFERENCES Chapter 6: Demand and Supply SHOCKS IN THE New Member States269 INTRODUCTION 6.2 Asymmetric Shocks and the optimum Currency Areas Approach 6.3 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 6.3.1 Some descriptive statistics 6.3.2 Demand and supply shocks: the Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1992) model 6.3.3 A dynamic analysis of the degree of shock symmetry in the new Member States 6.4 CONCLUSIONS 6.5 REFERENCES Chapter 7: Monetary Transmission in the new Member States303 7.1 INTRODUCTION 7.2 Review of the Empirical Literature on Monetary Transmission in the New member States 7.3 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 7.3.1 Methodology and data 7.3.2 Monetary transmission in the Euro area 7.3.3 Monetary transmission in the new Member States 7.4 CONCLUSIONS 7.5 REFERENCES Chapter 8: Promoting Fiscal Restraint in three Central European Member States353 8.1 INTRODUCTION 8.2 BACKGROUND 8.3 The Weak point of Medium-Term Budgetary planning 8.4 Public Finance in the Pre-Accession Economic Programs 8.5 SCENARIOS 8.5.1 The “Official” scenario 8.5.2 The Baseline scenario 8.5.3 The “Expansion/Austerity” scenario 8.5.4 The “Fiscal Prudence” scenario Chapter 9: Current Accounts Dynamics in New EU Members406 9.1 INTRODUCTION 9.2 Basic ientities and Some Stylised Facts 9.3 How Important is the Current Account? 9.4 Metbodoogies for Assessing Sustainability 9.5 Modelling the Current Account 9.6 A Simple Econometric Model 9.6.1 Projections 9.7 Policy Issues 9.7.1 Increasing the saving rate? 9.7.2 Early adoption of the euro: is it wise? 9.8 CONCLUSIONS 9.9 REFERENCES Chapter 10: Challenges to Banking Sector Stability in Selected Elected New Member States451 10.1 INTRODUCTION 10.2 Progress to Date in Restructuring of the Banking Sectors 10.2.1 Privatisation of the banking sectors 102.2 Restructuring: the Czech case 10.2.3 Restructuring: the Polish case 10.2.4 Restructuring: the Romanian case 10.2.5 Easing the burden of non‐performing loans 10.2.6 Restructuring and concentration in the banking sectors 10.3 Current Indicators of Oerational Efficiency and Financial Stability 10.4 Bank Regulation and Supervision 10.5 Challenges to the Banking Sectors in the Run‐up to Accession and the Euro and Pplicy Implications 10.6 CONCLUSIONS 10.7 REFERENCES Chapter 11: Infrastructure Investments as a Tool for Regional Development Policy: Lessons from the Spanish Evidence501 11.1 INTRODUCTION 11.2 Model SPECIFICATION 11.3 Data and Spatial Exploratory Analysis 11.4 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 11.5 CONCLUSIONS 11.6 REFERENCES Chapter 12: TFP, Costs, and Public Infrastructure: An Equivocal Relationship542 12.1 INTRODUCTION 12.2 The Theoretical Framework 12.2.1 The Total Factor Productivity approach 12.2.2 The production function approach 12..2. 3 The cost function approach 12.3 The Data 12.3.1 Data sources and definitions 12.3.2 Output, private inputs and TFP 12.4 The Role of Public Capital 12.4.1 Results from growth accounting 12.4.2 Results from the production function approach 12.4.3 Results from the cost function approach 12.4.4 Comparing the results 12.4.5 Causality and sensitivity analysis 12.5 CONCLUSIONS 12.6 REFERENCES Chapter 13: Regional Policies After the EU Enlargement600 13.1 INTRODUCTION 13.2 Initial Conditions and Simulations of the Future 13.2.1 Per capita income and labour productivity 13.2.2 Saving and investment 13.2.3 Labour market 13.2.4 Growth accounting 13.2.5 Regional inequalities in new Member States 13.2.6 A simulation exercise 13.3 Principles, Instruments, Jurisdiction 13.3.1 Which economic principles? 13.3.2 Which policy instruments? 13.3.3 Which policies? 13.3.4 Which jurisdiction? 13.4 CONCLUSIONS 13.5 REFERENCES
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:
European Union -- Europe, Eastern.
European Union -- Europe, Central.
Europe, Eastern -- Economic policy -- 1989-.
Europe, Central -- Economic policy.