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Table of Contents Introduction 1. Project Management and Project Risk Management (PRM) 2. Operational Risk Management and PRM 3. Contribution and Plan of the Book Part I: A New Look at Project Risk Management Chapter 1. PRM Best Practice: The PCNet Project 1. Background 1.1. The PCNet Project 2. Risk Identification 3. Risk Assessment and Prioritization 3.1. Impact Assessment 3.2. Risk Prioritization 4. Risk Monitoring and Management 4.1. Proactive Influencing of Risk Factors 4.2. Monitoring and Reporting 5. Managing Residual Risks 6. Learning and Sharing Across Projects 6.1. Learning Over Time 6.2. Learning from the Residual Risks 6.3. Overall Success of the PCNet Project 7. PRM as a Method and as a Mindset 8. Summary and Conclusions Chapter 2. The Limits of Established PRM: The Circored Project 1. Early Design of the Circored Technology 1.1. Cliffs' Strategic Business Idea 1.2. The Circored Technology and Early Preparations 2. Joint Venture and Business Plan 3. The Construction Phase 4. The Start-up Phase 5. A Management and Design Change 6. Market Turmoil 7. The Limits of PRM: Unforeseeable Uncertainty 8. Summary and Conclusions Chapter 3: A Broader Look at Project Risk Management 1. Understanding the Fundamental Types of Uncertainty 2. Foreseeable Uncertainty and Residual Risk 2.1. Variation 2.2. Foreseeable Events 2.3. Residual Risk 3. Complexity 3.1. Task Complexity: Control-and-Fast-Response 3.2. Relationship Complexity: Contracts as Risk Sharing Tools 4. Unknown Unknowns 4.1. Two Fundamental Approaches: Learning and Selectionism 5. Expanding the Toolbox: Fundamental Approaches to Project Uncertainty PART II: Managing the Unknown Chapter 4. Diagnosing Complexity and Uncertainty 1. Diagnosing the Unforeseeable at Escend Technologies 1.1. Background 1.2. Diagnosing the Unforeseeable 2. Diagnosing Complexity 3. A Process for Diagnosing Uncertainty and Complexity at the Outset 4. Evolve the Complexity and Uncertainty Profile 5. Conclusion Chapter 5. Learning Projects 1. Learning at Escend Technologies 1.1. Planning and Firefighting 1.2. Diagnosis and Learning 1.3. First Results and Further Adjustments 2. Types of Project Learning 2.1. Three Types of Learning 2.2. Double-Loop Learning Through Improvisation or Experimentation 2.3. The Tradeoff Between Learning and Progress 3. Back to Escend: Drawing the Lessons 3.1. Interpreting the Escend Example 3.2. An Experimentation Process Chapter 6. Multiple Parallel Projects: Selectionism 1. Selectionism at Option International 1.1. Company Background 1.2. The Challenge: an Unpredictably Changing Market 1.3. Selectionist Trials to Find a New Business Model 2. Explaining the Principles of Selectionism 3. What Makes Selectionism Work? 3.1. In What Space Are Alternatives Developed? 3.2. How Many Parallel Trials? 3.3. When to Stop Trials? 3.4. Ensuring Selection and Commitment to the Chosen Trial 3.5. Leveraging the Benefits of the Non-Selected Outcomes 4. Conclusion Chapter 7. Selectionism and Learning in Projects 1. Selectionism and Learning at Molecular Diagnostics 2. Choosing and Combining Selectionism and Learning 2.1. Understanding the Cost of Darwinian Selection and Sequential Learning 2.2. Value Comparison of Darwinian Selection and Sequential Learning 2.3. Exploratory Learning and the Value of Partial Information 2.4. The PRM Contingency Planning Approach 2.5. A Combined Choice Framework 3. Re-examining the Circored Project with this New Framework 4. Conclusion Part III: Putting Selectionism and Learning Into Practice Chapter 8: Establishing the Project Mindset 1. Open-Mindedness: Expecting the Unexpected 1.1. Choosing the Project Team With the Right Experience 1.2. Mindfulness: a Culture of Openness 1.3. Open-Mindedness Among Project Partners 2. Project Vision, or a "Map" of Unknown Terrain 2.1. An Example: Rapid Manufacturing Technologies 2.2. A Roadmap into Unknown Terrain 3. Robust-Mindedness: the Ability to Cope 3.1. Sensemaking and Social Cohesion to Prevent a Team Breakdown 3.2. A Sensemaking Breakdown in Automotive Development 3.3. Robustness: Social Identity and a Map 4. Summary: How to Foster an Unk Unk Mindset Chapter 9: Putting the Infrastructure in Place 1. Managerial Systems in Project Risk Management) 2. The Management Systems of Learning (Sub)Projects 2.1. Planning System 2.2. Monitoring System 2.3. Coordination and Information System 2.4. Evaluation and Incentive System 3. The Management Systems of Selectionist (Sub)Projects 3.1. Planning System 3.2. Monitoring System 3.3. Coordination System 3.4. Information System 3.5. Evaluation and Incentive System 4. Integrating Learning and Selectionist Pieces into the Overall Project 4.1. Buffers for the Subprojects Threatened by Unk Unks 4.2. Clarify Dependence of Other Subprojects 4.3. Transfer Preliminary Information Chapter 10: Managing Relationships and Project Governance 1. The Dangers of Project Contract 1.1. The EuroTunnel Project 1.2. Other Examples 1.3. The Limitations of and the Need to Extend Contracts 2. A Problem Solving Process in the Face of Unk Unks 2.1. Choose Partners for Competence They Contribute 2.2. Clear Risk and Reward Allocation and Flexibility 2.3. Fair Process 2.4. Early Warning Systems 2.5. Relationships and Trust Building 3. Summary: a Process of Partner Relationship Management Chapter 11: Managing Project Stakeholders in Presence of Unk Unks 1. The Project of the Flying Car 1.1. Concept Generation - Three Ideas Emerge 1.2. From Concepts to reality 1.3. Prototype Execution 1.4. Friction Within the Development Team 1.5. Friction Among External Partners 1.6. Selling the Project to the Organization 1.7. Management Systems for Selectionist Trials in Vol de Nuit 2. How Informal Stakeholders May Hold up a Project 2.1. Strategy and Economic Reasoning 2.2. Politics and Influence: Differing Interests and Network Structure 2.3. Culture 2.4. Egos and Emotions in the Approach of Individuals 3. Lessons: Map the Decision Influence Levels to Sell the Project Part IV: Managing the Unknown: The Role of Senior Management Chapter 12: The Role of Senior Management in Novel Projects 1. Choosing the Project Scope 1.1. Understanding the Strategic Rewards 1.2. Shaping the Project Portfolio 1.3. Enforce Risk Reduction in the Projects in Which Novelty is not Critical 2. Building Organizational Capabilities 2.1. The Project Management Team 2.2. The Project Infrastructure Structure 3. Sponsoring Novel Projects 4. Conclusion References
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