Table of contents for National security in Saudi Arabia : threats, responses, and challenges / Anthony H. Cordesman and Nawaf Obaid.

Bibliographic record and links to related information available from the Library of Congress catalog.

Note: Contents data are machine generated based on pre-publication provided by the publisher. Contents may have variations from the printed book or be incomplete or contain other coding.


Counter
Table of Contents
I. INTRODUCTION	1
CHANGING NATURE OF ALLIANCES	1
THE BROADER NATURE OF THE SAUDI SECURITY EFFORT	2
SAUDI SECURITY AND THE ROLE OF THE WEST	3
II. THE NEW BALANCE OF THREATS IN THE GULF REGION	4
INSTABILITY IN IRAQ	4
The Decline of Iraq's Military Forces	5
Iraq's Military Capabilities in the Post Saddam Era	6
The Emergence of a New Iraqi Threat?	9
THREAT FROM YEMEN	9
Yemen's Conventional Forces	10
Border Issues and Defenses	12
Saudi Vulnerability in the Red Sea Area	13
THE THREAT FROM IRAN	13
Iranian Conventional Forces	14
Iranian Military Expenditures	14
Iranian Arms Imports	15
Other Problems in Military Modernization	16
The Iranian Army	16
Iranian Tank Strength	17
Other Iranian Armor	18
Iranian Anti-Tank Weapons	20
Iranian Artillery Strength	21
Iranian Surface-to-Surface Missiles	23
Iranian Army Air Defense Systems	27
Iranian Army Aviation	28
Iranian Army Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence (C4I)	28
Other Aspects of Iranian Army Capability	29
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Pasdaran)	29
The Quds (Qods) Forces	31
The Basij and Other Paramilitary Forces	32
The Iranian Navy	33
Iranian Anti-Ship Missiles and Missile Craft	33
Iranian Mine Warfare Capabilities	35
Iranian Amphibious Assets	36
Iranian Naval Air	37
Iran's Submarine Forces	37
The Role of the Naval Branch of the IRGC	39
Naval Force Deployments	40
Overall Naval Capabilities	40
The Iranian Air Force	40
Iranian Air Strength	41
Iranian Land-based Air Defense	42
Iranian Air Force Readiness and Effectiveness	43
Iranian Capabilities to Carry Out Attacks in the Gulf	44
The Strait of Hormuz and Gulf Shipping Channels	44
The Gulf Coast and Key Facilities	45
Saudi Export Facilities	45
Increasing Global Dependence on Gulf Exports	47
Iranian Proliferation and Weapons of Mass Destruction	47
The Status of the Iranian Chemical Weapons Program	48
The Status of the Iranian Biological Weapons Program	52
The Status of the Iranian Nuclear Program	54
The Uncertain Character of Nuclear Facilities	54
Nuclear Developments in 2003 and 2004	67
Iran's Nuclear Weapons Development Options	70
Possible Dates for Iran's Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons	73
Iran's Nuclear Warfighting Doctrine and Capabilities	81
OTHER REGIONAL MILITARY THREATS	84
III. ASYMMETRIC THREATS AND ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS	85
ORIGINS & NATURE OF THE THREAT	85
Organizing al-Qaeda	86
THE AL-QAEDA ORGANIZATION IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA	88
Initial Organization and Structure	88
The Cell Structure is Attacked and Weakened	89
ORGANIZATION AND PATTERNS OF ATTACKS	90
THE SAUDI RESPONSE	95
Internal Security Action	96
The Political Dimension	97
The Amnesty Program	98
Using the Media	99
Anti-Terrorism measures in the Financial Sector	99
Monitoring Charitable Organizations	100
International Cooperation	102
WHAT THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT DID NOT DO: THE FINDINGS OF THE 9/11 COMMISSION	103
AL-QAEDA'S SITUATION IN 2005	104
DEALING WITH THE UNDERLYING CAUSES OF SUPPORT FOR AL-QAEDA	105
IV. EXTERNAL STRATEGIC PRESSURES	109
FAILURES IN INTEROPERABILITY, COOPERATION, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL	109
The Impact of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)	109
Progress Without Progress	109
GCC Cooperation versus an Unnecessary Degree of Dependence on Outside Allies	110
The Coming Military Recapitalization Crisis	110
THE PROBLEM OF SAUDI AND US STRATEGIC RELATIONS	112
Growing US and Saudi Divisions	113
The Need for New Forms of Saudi and US Cooperation in Fighting Counterterrorism	114
THE FAILURE TO COME TO GRIPS WITH THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT	115
THE NEED FOR SAUDI AND REGIONAL REFORM	116
The Economic and Demographic Pressures that Drive the Region Towards Terrorism and Extremism	116
The Pressures Created by a Lack of Political Reform and Stabilizing Political Ideology	118
Tensions over Reform	119
V. THE SAUDI SECURITY APPARATUS	121
THE LEADERSHIP OF THE SAUDI SECURITY APPARATUS	121
THE IMPORTANCE OF CONSENSUS AND CONSULTATION	123
THE COMMAND STRUCTURE AND LEADERSHIP OF SAUDI MILITARY FORCES	124
The Problem of Creating Synergy Between the Regular Services and National Guard	125
THE SEARCH FOR "JOINTNESS"	126
Slow improvement in Jointness in the Regular Services	126
Establishing Broader Jointness for Counter Terrorism	128
MANAGEMENT, BUDGETING, LEADERSHIP, AND CIVILIAN CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT OF THE REGULAR ARMED SERVICES	129
The Need for Fiscal Restraint	129
The Need to Create Truly Effective Planning, Programming, and Budgeting Systems	129
Creating Balanced Forces	130
SAUDI MILITARY EXPENDITURES	132
Finding the Proper Level of Expenditure	133
SAUDI ARMS IMPORTS	138
The Impact of the Gulf War	139
Arms Imports Since the Late 1990s	140
VI. SAUDI MILITARY FORCES	146
THE SAUDI ARMY	153
Force Strength and Structure	153
Saudi Armored Forces	154
Saudi Anti-Tank Weapons	156
Saudi Artillery	156
Saudi Light and Medium Air Defense Weapons	157
Saudi Army Aviation	158
Facilities and Infrastructure	159
Overall Capabilities	162
THE SAUDI NATIONAL GUARD	176
Strength and Organization	176
Major Combat Equipment	177
Modernization and New Mission Requirements	177
Overall Capabilities	177
THE SAUDI NAVY	180
Strength and Organization	180
Main Surface Combatants	180
Smaller Combat Ships, Minewarfare, and Support Forces	181
Submarines?	182
Marine and Amphibious Forces	182
Naval Aviation	183
Saudi Border Guard	183
Roles, Missions, and Capability	184
THE SAUDI AIR FORCE	194
Strength and Structure	194
Combat Aircraft	195
Reconnaissance and Early Warning	196
Training Aircraft	197
Refueling, Transport, and Support	197
Munitions and Spares	198
Support, Training, Logistics, and Sustainment	198
Overall Capabilities	199
SAUDI LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES	208
The Saudi Air Defense Force	208
The Patriot and the IHawk	208
Other Land-Based Air Defenses	209
Overall Capabilities	209
SAUDI MISSILE FORCES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SAUDI WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION	212
Modernizing the CSS-2	213
What Comes Next? Missiles, Missile Defenses, Civil Defense, Counter Proliferation, Counterterrorism, and Deterrence	215
NBC Defense Capabilities	217
VII. THE SAUDI PARAMILITARY AND INTERNAL SECURITY APPARATUS	218
SAUDI INTERNAL SECURITY BEFORE "9/11"	218
Failures to see the Problems Before "9/11"	219
Saudi Response to "9/11"	221
SAUDI ARABIA'S OWN "9/11": THE IMPACT OF MAY 2003	223
The Saudi Chronology of Terrorism and Counterterrorism	224
Changes in Post-May 2003 Reactions	235
The Problem of Corruption	236
THE SHIITE PROBLEM AND IRAN	236
THE EVOLVING SAUDI SECURITY APPARATUS	237
The Pivotal Role of the Ministry of Interior	238
The Role of Prince Nayef	238
Using the Wrong Words at the Wrong Time	239
Actions are More Important than Words	239
The Police and Security Services	242
GENERAL SECURITY SERVICE	243
THE GENERAL INTELLIGENCE PRESIDENCY	244
An Emerging Saudi Intelligence Community	244
The Changing Role of the GIP	245
The Future Role and Capabilities of the GIP	246
Operations and Activities Since May 2003	247
Border and Coastal Security	247
The Role of the Border Guard	247
The Option of a Border Surveillance and Defense System	248
The Expanding Mission of the Border Guard	249
SECURITY AND THE ROLE OF THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM	251
The Judicial System and Internal Security	251
THE "MUTAWWA'IN" OR RELIGIOUS POLICE	252
VIII. SAUDI ENERGY SECURITY	254
The Role of the Gulf and Middle East in Global Energy Exports	254
Changing Patterns in Import Dependence that Affect the Global Economy	254
SAUDI ARABIA'S IMPORTANCE TO ENERGY SECURITY	256
Critical Saudi Energy Facilities	257
THE SAUDI PIPELINE AND EXPORT SYSTEM	260
Saudi Refineries and Product Facilities	261
Saudi Natural Gas	262
Saudi Petrochemicals	264
Saudi Strategic Reserves	264
PETROLEUM INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY	264
Recent Patterns of Vulnerability	265
Saudi Arabia's Improving Security Capabilities	265
OVERALL VULNERABILITY	267
IX. MILITARY REFORM	268
SAUDI MILITARY DEVELOPMENT	268
Cooperation with Other Southern Gulf States	268
Force Transformation and Mission-Oriented Procurement Priorities	270
PLANNING, BUDGETING, AND PROCURING BALANCED FORCES	270
Realistic Limits on Military Spending and Arms Purchases	271
Recasting the Terms of Saudi Arms Buys	271
Waste versus Accountability	271
Shifting to Better Procurement Management and Longer Term Planning	273
Possible Saudi Needs and Major Purchases By Service	274
Ending the Turnkey Approach: The Possible Role of Test and Evaluation	276
RESHAPING DEFENSE PLANNING, PROGRAMMING, BUDGETING, AND TRANSPARENCY	276
ARMS SALES AND SECURITY ASSISTANCE	277
X. INTERNAL SECURITY REFORM	279
SAUDI REFORMS TO THE INTERNAL SECURITY APPARATUS BEFORE MAY 2003	279
International Cooperation	279
Arrests and Questioning of Suspects:	280
Legal and Regulatory Actions and Freezing Terrorist Assets and Combating Money Laundering	280
Actions Taken in regard to Charitable Organizations	282
Other Initiatives Related to Fighting Terrorism	282
SAUDI INTERNAL SECURITY REFORMS SINCE MAY 2003	282
PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER INTERNAL SECURITY REFORMS	286
XI. THE BROADER PRIORITIES FOR SECURITY REFORM	289
POLITICAL REFORM	290
Shura Council	290
Regional Assemblies	291
Municipal Elections	292
Regional Reform	294
ECONOMIC REFORM	294
Investment Environment and Capital Markets	295
Transparency	298
Privatization	298
The Government Budget and Public Debt	300
Addressing the Unemployment Problem	302
Accession to the WTO & Free Trade	305
Economic Diversification	307
SOCIAL REFORM	308
Human Rights	308
National Dialogue	310
Women's Rights and Value	310
Educational Reform	311
RELIGIOUS REFORM AND TOLERANCE	313
Religious Tolerance and Diversity	314
The Role of the Ulema	316
Islamic Policies	318
ADMINISTRATIVE AND GOVERNANCE REFORM:	320
Ministerial Reforms	320
Other Governmental Reforms	321
Judicial & Legal Reform	322
OVERALL PROGRESS IN REFORM	323
THE AUTHORS	340
	
List of Figures
FIGURE 2.1	6
THE EMERGING NEW IRAQI MILITARY AND SECURITY FORCES	6
FIGURE 3.1	87
THE ORGANIZATION OF AL-QAEDA	87
FIGURE 3.2	90
CHRONOLOGY OF AL-QAEDA-RELATED TERRORIST ATTACKS	90
FIGURE 3.3	107
AL-QAEDA IN SAUDI ARABIA: THE MOST WANTED LIST	107
FIGURE 4.1	111
THE PROBLEMS IN GULF MILITARY RECAPITALIZATION	111
FIGURE 5.1	135
COMPARATIVE MILITARY EXPENDITURES OF THE GULF POWERS - 1984-1999	135
FIGURE 5.2	136
SOUTHERN GULF MILITARY EXPENDITURES BY COUNTRY: 1997-2004	136
FIGURE 5.3	137
COMPARATIVE MILITARY EXPENDITURES OF THE GULF POWERS AS A PERCENT OF GNP - 1989-1999	137
FIGURE 5.4	142
CUMULATIVE SAUDI ARMS IMPORTS RELATIVE TO THOSE OF THE OTHER GULF STATES - 1986-1999	142
FIGURE 5.5	143
SOUTHERN GULF ARMS AGREEMENTS AND DELIVERIES BY COUNTRY: 1988-2003	143
FIGURE 5.6	144
SOUTHERN GULF NEW ARMS ORDERS BY SUPPLIER COUNTRY: 1988-2003	144
FIGURE 5.7	145
SOUTHERN GULF NEW ARMS ORDERS BY SUPPLIER COUNTRY: 1988-2003	145
FIGURE 6.1	147
GULF MILITARY FORCES IN 2005	147
FIGURE 6.2	149
MAJOR MEASURES OF KEY COMBAT EQUIPMENT STRENGTH IN 2005	149
FIGURE 6.3	150
COMPARATIVE TRENDS IN GULF TOTAL ACTIVE MILITARY MANPOWER: 1979-2005	150
FIGURE 6.4	151
TOTAL ACTIVE MILITARY MANPOWER IN ALL GULF FORCES 1990-2005	151
FIGURE 6.5	152
TOTAL GULF MILITARY MANPOWER BY SERVICE IN 2005	152
FIGURE 6.6	163
SAUDI ROYAL ARMY: FORCE STRUCTURE	163
FIGURE 6.7	165
GULF STATES ACTIVE ARMY MANPOWER: 1991-2005	165
FIGURE 6.8	166
TOTAL GULF OPERATIONAL ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLES IN 2005	166
FIGURE 6.9	167
TOTAL OPERATIONAL MAIN BATTLE TANKS IN ALL GULF FORCES 1979 TO 2005	167
FIGURE 6.10	168
MEDIUM TO HIGH QUALITY MAIN BATTLE TANKS BY TYPE IN 2005	168
FIGURE 6.11	169
TOTAL OPERATIONAL OTHER ARMORED VEHICLES (LT. TANKS, LAVS, AIFVS, APCS, RECCE) IN GULF FORCES 1990-2005	169
FIGURE 6.12	170
GULF OTHER ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLES (OAFVS) BY CATEGORY IN 2005	170
FIGURE 6.13	171
ARMORED INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLES, RECONNAISSANCE VEHICLES, LAVS AND LIGHT TANKS BY TYPE IN 2005	171
FIGURE 6.14	172
ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS (APCS) IN GULF ARMIES IN 2005	172
FIGURE 6.15	173
TOTAL OPERATIONAL SELF-PROPELLED AND TOWED TUBE ARTILLERY AND MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS IN GULF FORCES 1990-2005	173
FIGURE 6.16	174
TOTAL OPERATIONAL GULF ARTILLERY WEAPONS IN 2005	174
FIGURE 6.17	175
GULF INVENTORY OF MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS BY CALIBER IN 2005	175
FIGURE 6.18	179
SAUDI NATIONAL GUARD: FORCE STRUCTURE	179
FIGURE 6.19	186
SAUDI ROYAL NAVY: FORCE STRUCTURE	186
FIGURE 6.20	188
GULF STATES ACTIVE NAVAL MANPOWER: 1991-2005	188
FIGURE 6.21	189
GULF NAVAL SHIPS BY CATEGORY IN 2005	189
FIGURE 6.22	190
GULF WARSHIPS WITH ANTI-SHIP MISSILES IN 2005	190
FIGURE 6.23	191
GULF MINE WARFARE SHIPS IN 2005	191
FIGURE 6.24	192
GULF AMPHIBIOUS WARFARE SHIPS IN 2005	192
FIGURE 6.25	193
GULF NAVAL AIRCRAFT AND HELICOPTERS AIRCRAFT IN 2005	193
FIGURE 6.26	200
SAUDI ROYAL AIR FORCE: FORCE STRUCTURE	200
FIGURE 6.27	202
GULF STATES ACTIVE AIR FORCE MANPOWER: 1991-2005	202
FIGURE 6.28	203
TOTAL GULF HOLDINGS OF COMBAT AIRCRAFT IN 2005	203
FIGURE 6.29	204
GULF HIGH AND MEDIUM QUALITY FIXED WING FIGHTER, FIGHTER ATTACK, ATTACK, STRIKE, AND MULTI-ROLE COMBAT AIRCRAFT BY TYPE IN 2005	204
FIGURE 6.30	205
GULF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN 2005	205
FIGURE 6.31	206
SENSOR, AWACS, C4I, EW AND ELINT AIRCRAFT IN 2005	206
FIGURE 6.32	207
GULF ATTACK, ANTI-SHIP AND ASW HELICOPTERS IN 2005	207
FIGURE 6.33	210
SAUDI AIR DEFENSE FORCE: FORCE STRUCTURE	210
FIGURE 6.34	211
GULF LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS IN 2005	211
FIGURE 7.1:	238
MINISTRY OF INTERIOR TROOP TOTALS - 2004	238
FIGURE 7.2:	241
THE SAUDI INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMUNITY	241
FIGURE 7.3:	248
BORDER GUARDS APPREHENSION OF WEAPONS AND EXPLOSIVES 1995-2003	248
FIGURE 7.4:	250
SAUDI COUNTERTERRORISM FORCES	250
FIGURE 8.1	258
SAUDI MAXIMUM PRODUCTION CAPACITY BY GRADE	258
FIGURE 8.2	259
SAUDI FIELD PRODUCTION	259
FIGURE 8.3	261
SAUDI OIL TERMINALS	261
FIGURE 8.4	262
MAJOR REFINERIES	262
FIGURE 11.1	292
MAP OF THE 13 PROVINCES WITH THEIR CAPITALS.	292
FIGURE 11.2	293
MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS PHASES	293
FIGURE 11.3	297
SAUDI ARABIAN STOCK MARKET VALUE OF SHARES TRADED AND GROWTH RATES 1994-2003	297
(IN $ BILLION)	297
FIGURE 11.4	300
SAUDI ARABIAN BUDGET BALANCE 1994-2005	300
FIGURE 11.5	301
SAUDI ARABIA'S DOMESTIC DEBT 1994-2004	301
FIGURE 11.6	303
REASONS FOR HIRING NON-SAUDIS	303
FIGURE 11.7	304
SHARE OF NATIONALS IN WORKFORCE 1975-2000	304
FIGURE 11.8	306
TOTAL FOREIGN TRADE 1969-2003	306

Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication:

National security -- Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia -- Military policy.