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CONTENTS Preface iii Figures ix Tables xiii Summary xv Acknowledgments xix Glossary, list of Symbols, etc. xxi 1. INTRODUCTION 1 Background 1 Past Studies: Methods and their Limitations 3 A New Model: Learning from Past Limitations 5 Shipbuilding and Force Structure Analysis Tool 6 2. THE SHIPBUILDING AND FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS TOOL: AN OVERVIEW 8 Fundamentals of the Tool's architecture 8 Key Concepts of the Tool 12 Stored Data and Data Sets 12 Main Inputs 13 Main Outputs 14 Force Transition Model: An Overview 15 How the Model Generates a Shipbuilding Plan 16 The Industrial Base Model: An Overview 20 The O&S Cost Model: An Overview 20 The Financial Adjustments and Assumptions Model: An Overview 21 Constant Dollar Basis and Net Present Value 21 Assumptions Check 23 3. THE INDUSTRIAL BASE MODEL 25 Shipyard Production Labor 25 The Labor Metric: Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) 26 Ship Class Labor 27 First-of-a-Class Versus Follow-on Ships 27 Workload, Labor Profiles, and Learning 29 The "Project" Concept: When Labor is Divided Across Shipyards 30 Contractor Roles 31 Shipyard Labor and Costs 33 New Production, Existing Production, and Other Work 33 Effective Versus Required Labor 35 Attrition, Hiring, and Termination Rates 35 Productivity 36 Burden Costs 37 The Industrial Base Model in Action 38 Required Labor Calculations 40 Effective Labor Calculations 40 Productivity Calculations 41 4. Working with the Tool 45 Summary 45 Running the Models 46 Limitations of the Tool 47 Data Updates Required 47 Force Transition Model Limitations 49 Industrial Base Model Limitations 49 Dealing with Real World Problems 50 Implications of Changing Ship Life 50 Detecting Industrial Base Problems 51 Extending or Moving Construction Time for a Ship 53 Changing Force Structure 53 Conclusion 54 A. MICROSOFT ACCESS AND TOOL INSTALLATION 58 Microsoft Access 58 Installing the Database Files 60 Missing or Incorrect References in VBA 60 Installing Optimization DLL Routines 62 B. START-UP AND CREATING A DATA SET 64 Overview 64 Warning and Top Level Menus 64 Manage Data Sets 65 C. DATA EDIT AND ENTRY 69 Overview 69 Status Bar 70 Force Structure 71 Edit Active Fleet Information 71 Edit Force Level Requirements 73 Edit Ships in Production 74 Edit Production Plans 75 Edit Acquisition Plan 75 Modify Acquisition Table Format 77 Edit New Ship Construction 77 Edit Ships in Production 79 Edit Other Work List 79 Ship Class Data 81 Add a New Ship Class 81 Edit Ship Class Data 81 Top Level Form 83 Allocation Order Sub-Form 85 Learning Data 86 Material & Equipment Costs Sub-Form 88 O&S Costs Sub-Form 89 Labor Sub-Form 91 Funding Profile Sub-Form 93 Edit Force Level Requirements 94 Edit Hull Types 94 Edit Ship Roles 94 Edit Shipyard Data 95 Labor Data Sub-Form 96 Burden Rates Sub-Form 98 Productivity Sub-Form 99 Edit Other Work Data 102 Material & Equipment Cost Sub-Form 103 Labor Sub-Form 104 Edit Labor Profiles 105 Edit Data Sources and Inflation Indices 107 Edit Inflation Indices 107 Edit Data Source Documentation 107 D. RUNNING THE DATA SET; CALCULATIONS 110 Update Year List 110 Calculate Build Table 111 Generate Required Labor Profiles 112 Generate Effective Labor Profiles 113 Calculate Productivities 113 Update Funding Profiles 113 View Intermediate Results 115 E. GENERATING REPORTS 116 Report Formats 117 Shipyard Labor 117 Example Output 119 Funding 122 Example Output 123 Ship Counts 124 Example Output 125 Data Sources 129 Quit 130 F. COMPARISON UTILITY 132 Main Screen 132 Select Data Sets 134 Update Year List 134 Labor Differences 134 Funding Differences 136 Ship Counts 138 G. SHIP ROLES, HULL TYPES, AND CLASSES 141 References 142 Bibliography 145 This ¶ is a kludge to fix a bug in MS Word. Don't delete it! FIGURES Figure S.1 / Summary Tool Architecture xvi Figure 2.1 - High-Level Architecture 9 Figure 2.2 / Model Inputs and Outputs 12 Figure 2.3 / Flow Diagram for Force Transition Model 16 Figure 2.4 / Example Acquisition Plan 19 Figure 3.1 - First-of-a-Class vs. Follow-on Ship Workloads 28 Figure 3.2 / Example Labor Profile (as Entered) 30 Figure 3.3 - Example Production Plan 33 Figure 3.X / Flow Diagram for the Industrial Base Model 39 Figure 5.1 / Edit Ship Class Data 52 Figure A.1 - Needed References for VBA 61 Figure A.2 - Entering the Solver DLL Key String in VBA Editor 63 Figure B.1 - Warning Screen 65 Figure B.2 - Top Level Menu 66 Figure B.3 - Manage Data Sets Form 67 Figure B.4 - A Selected Data Set 67 Figure B.5 - Successful Link to a New Data Set 68 Figure C.1 - Data Edit and Entry Menu 69 Figure C.2 - Example of Active Status Bar 70 Figure C.3 - Edit Active Fleet Information Form 72 Figure C.4 - Force Level Requirements 73 Figure C.5 - Ships in Production Data Entry Form 74 Figure C.6 / Example Acquisition Plan 76 Figure C.7 / Modify Acquisition Table Format 77 Figure C.8 - Edit New Production Plan 79 Figure C.9 - Edit Other Work List 81 Figure C.10 - Edit Ship Class Data Form 83 Figure C.11 / Learning Data Sub-form 87 Figure C.12 - Material and Equipment Sub-Form 88 Figure C.13 - Operations and Support Costs Sub-Form 90 Figure C.14 - Labor Sub-Form 92 Figure C.15 / Funding Profile Sub-Form 93 Figure C.16 / Edit Hull Types 95 Figure C.17 / Edit Ship Roles 96 Figure C.18 - Shipyard Labor Data 98 Figure C.19 - Shipyard Burden Rates 100 Figure C.20 / Productivity Data 101 Figure C.21 - Other Work Material and Equipment Sub-Form 103 Figure C.22 - Other Work Labor Data Sub-Form 105 Figure C.23 / Edit Labor Profile 106 Figure C.24 - Edit Inflation Index Data 108 Figure C.25 - Data Source Documentation Form 109 Figure D.1 - Calculations Form 110 Figure D.2 / Select Calculation Method 111 Figure D.3 / Missing Production Data Warning 112 Figure D.4 - Funding Assumptions Form 114 Figure D.5 - Invalid Funding Data Warning 115 Figure E.1 - Reports Menu 116 Figure E.2 / Labor Output Form 118 Figure E.3 - Required Labor (FTE) at a Shipyard by Class 119 Figure E.4 / Required Labor (FTE) by Class as a Table 120 Figure E.5 / Required Labor with New Build Table 120 Figure E.6 - Required versus Effective Labor 121 Figure E.7 - Burden Rates Report 121 Figure E.8 / Funding Output Selection Form 122 Figure E.9 - Detail of Summary Funnding by Year Report 123 Figure E.10 - Chart of Summary Spending 124 Figure E.11 / Ship Count Reports 125 Figure E.12 - Table of Hull Types by Year 126 Figure E.13 - Hull Types by Year, XY Plot 127 Figure E.14 - Active Hull Types by Year - Sand Chart 128 Figure E.15 - Table of Ship Requirements 129 Figure E.16 - Data Source Comments Report 130 Figure F.1 / Main Screen 133 Figure F.2 / Labor Differences Pop-up Window 135 Figure F.3 / Example Absolute Delta Labor Graph with Delta Build Plan 136 Figure F.4 / Funding Differences Menu 137 Figure F.5 / Funding Differences Table 138 Figure F.6 / Ship Counts Pop-up Window 139 Figure F.7 / Delta Ship Production by Ship Role 140 This ¶ is a kludge to fix a bug in MS Word. Don't delete it! TABLES Table 4.1 Example Force Level Requirement 54 Table G.1 Ship Roles, Hull Types, and Classes 141 This ¶ is a kludge to fix a bug in MS Word. Don't delete it!
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: United States, Navy Procurement Mathematical models, Warships United States Design and construction Mathematical models, Shipbuilding industry United States Mathematical models, Military planning United States Mathematical models