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Contents Preface iii List of Figures vii List of Tables ix Executive Summary xi Acknowledgements xi Acronyms and Abbreviations xxiii Glossary xxv 1. Introduction: A Critical Infrastructure 1 Petroleum Products in the U.S. Economy 1 Change and Challenges in Refining 1 A Critical Infrastructure 5 About the Study 7 The Report 13 2. The Refining Industry and Petroleum Products Markets 15 Industry Segments and business Models 15 Economic Hardship and Restructuring 17 Is the Downstream Enjoying an Economic Recovery? 20 Product Slate 23 Higher Performance Fuels 25 Regionalization of Products Markets 27 Future Demand 32 Imports 35 3. Refinery Operations and Technologies 39 Current Operations Trends 39 Current Trends in Technologies 49 Longer-Term Trends in Technologies and Operations 54 Environment for Technology Innovation 59 Human Capital 65 4. Regulatory and Financial Environment 68 Return on Investment 69 Capital Constraints 74 Regulatory Flexibility 79 Regulatory Uncertainty 82 Implications for Future Product supplies 86 Industry Views of Policy and Regulation 91 5. The Refining Industry in a New Era: Key Findings and Policy Issues 93 Key Findings 93 Policy Issues of Importance 103 Appendix A. RAND Discussion Participants 106 Appendix B. Discussion Protocol 112 Appendix C. Petroleum Refining Processes and Products 113 Crude Oil Inputs 113 Separation 115 Conversion 115 Combination 118 Reformulation 119 Treating 120 Support Operations 121 Bibliography 125 List of Figures Operating Costs and Margins for Medium and Large U.S. Refiners, 1979/2001 21 U.S. Refining Industry Product Slate 24 Major Refineries and Refined Products Pipe Lines 28 Regional Summer Gasoline Requirements 30 One Company's View of Potential Gasoline Demand 34 U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Intermediate and Finished Petroleum Products, 1970-2002 36 Principal Refinery Processes and Outputs 40 U.S. Crude Distillation Capacity and Input at Operable Refineries, 1970/2001 41 U.S. Refineries and Capacity Utilization, 1950/2002 42 Company R&D Spending in the United States 61 Range of Products in Light and Heavy Crude Oils Prior to Refining and the Market Demand for Refined Products 114 List of Tables The U.S. Refining Industry at a Glance, 2002 2 Key Recommendations from the National Energy Policy Regarding Petroleum Products Manufacturing and Distribution 5 Summary of Major Fuel Specifications 26
Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Petroleum industry and trade United States, Petroleum Refining United States