Inflation patterns and monetary policy : lessons for the European Central Bank / Johannes M. Groeneveld.

Groeneveld, Johannes M., 1965-

Bibliographic record and links to related information available from the Library of Congress catalog
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List of Figures	vii
List of Tables	ix
Acknowledgements	xi

1. Introduction	1
	1 Background	1
	2 A preliminary look at inflation	3
	3 Outline	5

2.   The P*-Framework: Theory and Backgrounds	8
	1 Introduction	8
	2 Theoretical and methodological underpinnings of the P'-model	9
	3 Technical aspects	19
	Appendix 2A Unit roots: theory and testing strategy	28

3.   Testing the P*-Model for Four Initial ERM Members	36
	1 Introduction	36
	2 A preliminary look at the actual data	37
	3 The determination of the price gaps	46
	4 Regression results	65
	5 Concluding remarks	87

4.   Money and Prices in a Small EMU	93
	1 Introduction	93
	2 The extended P'-model	94
	3 Aggregation issues	97
	4 The actual and equilibrium European variables	101

5	Technical aspects of the construction of European equilibrium
          variables                                                            113

6	Economic distortions in Europe: theoretical and policy
		considerations	118

7	Regression results	121

8	Concluding remarks	136

5.	Monetary Spillover Effects from the ERM to Austria	144
	1  Introduction	144
     2  A preliminary look at the data and the price gaps for Austria      145
	3  The impact of national and European monetary factors on
         Austrian prices                                                    150
     4  Concluding remarks                                                 152

6.	Direct Inflation Targeting: Conceptual and Empirical
     Considerations                                                        154
	1	Introduction	154
	2	Practical and theoretical backgrounds	155
	3	A preliminary look at the data	160
	4	The data generating process of inflation	168
	5	Inflation and interest rate dynamics	175
     6	What monetary strategy for the ECB: some preliminary
		thoughts	192

7.	About the Ins and Outs	195
		1  Introduction	195
		2	Convergence in Europe: a brief review of the literature	196
		3	Some stylized facts	198
		4	An empirical analysis of convergence in Europe	202
		5	Economic performance and long-term interest rates	219
		6	Sununary and some policy considerations	226

8. 	Summary and Concluding Remarks	230
		1 Summary	230
		2 Concluding remarks	233

References	235

Index	251