Publisher description for Uncertainty : a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis / M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion ; with a chapter by Mitchell Small.


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Counter The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

Library of Congress subject headings for this publication: Uncertainty Mathematical models, Risk Mathematical models, Policy sciences Mathematical models